With FBRef.com’s switch from Statsbomb to Opta as its data source, in my estimation fans and stat nerds are now treated to untapped data previously hidden behind crazy web scrapers or pay walls. Beyond the addition of new leagues with advanced data, including the Eredivisie and the Premeira Liga, the finest and most delicate treat is itemized shot data for each match (and even previous seasons for those who are daring)!
For those who don’t know where to find it, click on the match reports for any individual match (right now I’m on the Atalanta dashboard), and scroll all the way down to shot data. Here’s Atalanta’s portal on FBRef.com
Each shot is itemized with the percent chance of converting into a goal, both preshot (xG) and post-shot (psxG), as well as the shot distance, and who set up the shooter via passes, dribbles, etc. Previously Fotmob.com was the only other free place that categorized such detail on its site. Now the benefit of having it on FBRef.com is it is far easier to work with the data in the analysis tool of your choice. The stats nerd in me decided to dig into all 373 shots taken in Atalanta’s matches this year to try and find some positive trends as well as areas to improve upon.
There will be no true flow to this, and is based on interesting tidbits I’ve found throughout my searching. I hope you enjoy!
Some High Level Numbers
As good as the opening of the season has gone this year, it is important to note that Atalanta has been heavily buoyed by penalties. Yes, Atalanta has to be driving offense in order to create these penalty opportunities, but I would counter that only two penalties were a result of chances that could have truly put the opposition keeper in danger (Udinese and Empoli matches).
But there are still some interesting figures that can be garnered from goals that have been scored. Firstly, the relationship between expected goals and actual goals is staggering. Goals do not always come from stone-cold chances, and goals are blended by moments of individual heroism, strong team build-up, as well as dumb luck. Its a good reminder to not take expected goals at face value, and always try to ascertain what the nuance is that is driving what the computer expected to happen in a given situation.
Atalanta goals have come in a variety of ways this year, from Rafael Toloi’s well worked team goal (.79 xG), to Merih Demiral’s fluky deflection (0.1 xG), to Ademola Lookman’s well-timed shot against Empoli (.08 xG). Given that 27% of Atalanta’s goals have come from either penalties or own-goals, a competitive Atalanta team in 2023 will need to start creating more open field opportunities, and then converting those chances!
Distance Is the Key
Yet the biggest thing that stands out to me is the last column in the table above – average distance. The difference between 12.5 yards and 10.3 yards may not seem significant – but that 20% gap is bringing opposition much closer to Juan Musso’s net, and some of the most infuriating goals Atalanta have conceded this year all have come within seven yards of goal. Given that a seven yard shot is point-blank range, Musso has no chance to stop many of these shots.
Out of all the goals scored from under seven yards this year, it is arguable that Atalanta’s share came from either well worked offensive sequences, or deflections that resulted from well worked passages of play. Yes while the opposition had its fair share of well-worked plays, many of these short distance goals Atalanta conceded could have been avoided.
- Neheun Perez – open header from a short corner
- Victor Osimhen – open header from a short corner
- Federico Baschirotto – open header from a short corner
- Emanuele Valeri – a spilled save by Juan Musso
The trend is obvious on how Atalanta has faltered defensively. It is entirely possible that four goals from pointblank range could have been avoided, and given that these men were within spitting distance of goal makes it even more inexcusable. Take away these four specific goals, and Atalanta picks up six more points in the table, provided that the astronomically minimal chance that the game plays out exactly the same way sans these converted chances actually comes true!
Yet overall this year, Atalanta has done quite well in limiting opponent’s chances inside the box. In fact the average shot Atalanta faced was outside the penalty box, setting up copious opportunities to throw bodies in front of shots. Given Atalanta’s stingy defense at the beginning of the season, this passes the eye test, and was confirmed even further by Atalanta’s stout defensive run at the beginning of the season.
Furthermore, every time Atalanta’s 10 shot rolling average distance fell below its 19 yard average, results tended to not be good. The average gets inflated right at the end of the Lecce match, but it is bonkers how Edin Dzeko was able to walk so freely into Atalanta’s box.
Finishing Quality Has Been….
I’ve mentioned this article so many times recently it feels like, but it cannot be understated how poor Atalanta’s finishing was last year (link). And this year is, well, a bit like last year. If you remember, I compared Atalanta’s post shot expected goals to its expected goals to proxy finishing quality. A ratio of .91 psXG to 1 xG was considered average, with a 1 to 1 ratio being a strong finisher, or at the team level elite. To set the stage, Atalanta as a team was putrid last year at .76. (Note last year’s data came from Soccerment who also uses Opta for xG and psXG data).
We’ve improved a bit, but are still below average. While opposition has been about average (at least compared to last year’s data – I would need to go compile shot data for every team to confirm what actually is league average).
This is still wildly concerning for Atalanta. Beyond Ademola Lookman, Luis Muriel, Duvan Zapata and Rasmus Hojlund have not helped the cause among the strikers. In addition, out of Atalanta’s 29 chances above 0.2 xG, only 9 have translated into goals (plus one own goal). With a psxG/xG ratio of 0.81 for these chances, Atalanta isn’t even performing at an average clip for its best opportunities. Even removing Maehle’s terrible miss to start the year against Sampdoria, and Atalanta is still at a 0.88 ratio.
Take a look at that pocket of Rasmus Hojlund misses. We’ll come back to that later.
The Wingback Question
One of the positives of the early season has been the emergence of Joakim Maehle. At the beginning of the season there were question marks on who the starters should be on both flanks, but Maehle has performed nicely to cement his place in the starting XI on the left side of the pitch.
In fact from the left flank he is third on the squad in shot creating actions [SCA] (defined as the two action directly leading to a shot – dribble, pass, tackle, etc.), and is first among wingbacks in shot creation and shot creation per 90 minutes. Over Atalanta’s 187 shots this year, Maehle share of shot creating actions across the entire team has hovered between 7% and 10% – double that of Hans Hateboer, and also greater than that of Atalanta’s most offensively talented wingback Brandon Soppy. If Gian Piero Gasperini wants to hearken back to the days of double wingback dynamism – Joakim Maehle has to be part of his plans. Brandon Soppy is likely the logical answer to support Maehle in this endeavor who has already outproduced Hateboer in SCAs in half the minutes. The question remains, does Gian Piero Gasperini need to go with such a heavily influenced offensive wingback duo?
One request I would have for Maehle is to attempt to drive the ball more into the box. Out of the 15 key passes he made this season (key pass is defined as a pass leading to a shot), the average distance on those passes is 20.6 yards. To me this suggests, too much passing to the top of the key, rather than trying to place a killer ball or nestled cross into the box.
Speaking of the Danes
I prepped you to keep Rasmus Hojlund on the top of your mind. The Danish teenager has gotten off to an energetic but uneven start to his career in Bergamo. Limitless work rate and hustle has helped him be the beneficiary of some of Atalanta’s best chances this year. Unfortunately, as the table above declares, he is not converting those great chances.
Of the 12 shots Hojlund has taken this year, seven have registered an xG greater than 0.19, only one has found the back of the net, and his psxG to xG ratio is an unenviable 0.807. I won’t dwell on the numbers too much, because a 12 shot sample cannot be used to draw too many conclusions. However, the sheer quantity of excellent chances that Hojlund is able to create for himself cannot go unnoticed. He obviously has a nose for the box, he just needs some more seasoning to have his finishing match the eliteness of his positioning. If he’s able to do that, watch out!
Given his nose for goal, and the likely improvement expected to come from his overall game, I’m almost willing to turn the keys over to him offensively. If its a one to one comparison between Hojlund and Duvan Zapata, Hojlund may be the better bet right now to convert more goals. Yes Zapata has been hurt a fair amount, but Zapata’s 13 shot opportunities come nowhere near the quality of the shots Hojlund has taken (only three opportunities over that 0.19 xG). This has a lot to do with average shot position, where Hojlund holds the advantage at 12 yards versus 17 yards.
Right now for a team that needs to create and convert easier chances, give me the guy who is swimming around the box looking for those opportunities right around the penalty spot. Zapata has value to his game in the buildup, but with the emergence of Maehle on the left, and hopefully Ederson’s continual improvement in the midfield – Atalanta has other ways to progress the ball forward, and realistically should not have to rely on Duvan to facilitate creation and score.
There’s so many ways that this data could be sliced and diced, and I don’t think I got anywhere near everything I wanted to share. But I also didn’t want this to be a 3,500 word article – so I spared everyone, and hopefully I hit on the biggest points.
I’m not a scout and don’t think I have the eye to ever be one, so it is great that we are able to use data that I think can drive some actionable decision making that could have real life impact. If Atalanta can work on its set piece defending, get the ball at the feet of the guys who can finish the rock, continue to feed the wingbacks who contribute offensively, and feed the Dane with a nose for goal, I would bet that Atalanta can continue to keep the pace with all of its nearest rivals in the race for the Top 4. Let’s hope it pans out for us in 2023!
Until the new year, and as always, Forza Dea!
