Serie A Matchday 16 Preview: Spezia vs. Atalanta

Date: January 4, 2023
Time: 14:30 CET | 8:30 EST

A Quick Tale of the Tape

Spezia: 17th | 13 points | -12 GD | -10.3 xGD | Top Goalscorer: M’Bala Nzola – 7
Atalanta: 6th | 27 points | +7 GD | +8.6 xGD | Top Goalscorer: Ademola Lookman – 7

After a 40 day hiatus and dusting off the cobwebs from my keyboard, I am thrilled to write: “Serie A is back!” The World Cup may have been all well and good, but at least for me, my heart lies with the domestic leagues, and I cannot wait to get back into what was already shaping into a mouthwatering Serie A campaign – and one that has been a positive, but mixed, start for Atalanta.

For those, including me, who may have forgot where Atalanta stands, the squad is still right in the thick of the Champion’s League race. Tied for 6th place with Roma, but only three points off 4th place, an electric January start could accelerate Atalanta’s hopeful ascension back up the table.

There are fewer opponents better to kick off the New Year against than Spezia. The class of Liguria this season, although that doesn’t say much, there is a crazy scenario in which Spezia remains the only Ligurian club in Serie A next season. Luca Gotti has done well to shepherd Spezia away from the dangerous depths of the relegation zone, but a six point difference between safety and relegation can be wiped away in a matter of weeks.

Still, through Spezia’s consecutive seasons in the top flight, the directors have been able to cobble together a respectable starting lineup, not built purely through loan deals, that can continually fight for safety. M’Bala Nzola has found a new gear this year, putting away seven goals, and recent World Cup participant Jakub Kiwior has quietly been the envy of a few bigger clubs around Europe. Atalanta has fared well against Spezia in recent encounters, but in a match that feels like a new start to the season, La Dea have to ensure that a rusty start does not get the better of the boys.

Atalanta Passione’s Preferred Starting XI

I had an article queued during the World Cup break on my preferred starting XI for the second half of the season but I shelved it. It wasn’t deep, but the ultimate gist was it is time for Atalanta to ride or die with its new crop of talent. Just like what spearheaded Atalanta’s ascent in Gasperini’s first year – let Atalanta sink or swim with a new crop – especially Giorgio Scalvini, Rasmus Hojlund, and Brandon Soppy.

Atalanta is not noticeably worse with a young core. Surely there may be a bit more consistency choosing Duvan Zapata or Hans Hateboer in their respective roles. But should we miss out on the possible skyrocketing ascent of certain players by erring on the side of minimal caution? I would say no. There’s too much upside to sit and wait until next year, and even if Atalanta takes a step back in the short term only to take two steps forward by the end of the year, it may be worth it.

Atalanta Player to Watch – Rasmus Hojlund

Its dangerous to draw conclusions from low energy friendly matches, but no one looked brighter in Atalanta’s contests than the young Dane. He continued his conquest to create as many high probability chances as possible, and there’s no one on Atalanta that can match his ability to create good opportunities.

Ignoring penalties, Hojlund is already second on the squad in xG chances greater than 20% (one behind Ademola Lookman). When considering the minutes he’s obtained such figures, it makes it even more impressive. Surely only one of those six opportunities found the back of the net, but I’m confident he’ll positively regress back to a level expected of a striker.

On top of that Spezia defense has been leaky this year. Gotti’s side kept a cleansheet the first match of the season, and has failed to do so since. Hojlund realizing his potential against a defense that is less than stellar could be the start we all need to 2023.

Everyone club is in a unique position to kick off 2023. With over a 40 day break its almost as if each and every team is starting anew with the slates wiped clean. Depending on your place in the table the slate unfortunately remains as is, but we can all at least garner a new perspective on what can come in the second half of the season.

In Atalanta’s case its great to be able to wipe clean the three game losing streak going into the break. Sure it remains on the official table, but those matches are so far in the rearview mirror it as if they never happened. And now here we are, a bit more intelligent about who we are coupled with the fresh mindset that comes at the beginning of a new season. Can Atalanta use that to its advantage? Let’s hope so, and get off to a good start in 2023! As always, Forza Dea!

Nick