The World Cup break could not have come at a better time. Well, maybe it could have come one week earlier to prevent Atalanta from succumbing to its second and third straight losses! Everyone knows what happened against Lecce midweek already, and surely with this article dropping a day after Sunday’s disaster, everyone is already aware of Atalanta’s defeat at the hands of Inter Milan.
It was nearly deja vu from what Atalantini experienced one week earlier against Napoli. Atalanta goes ahead early thanks to an Ademola Lookman penalty, but then quickly loses its stranglehold on the game. This time around Atalanta only permitted Inter to score once before halftime, but Inter kept on humming in the second half, ultimately putting two more past Juan Musso (even though Jose Palomino helped Inter’s cause with one of the goals), leading to three goals conceded for the first time this season.
Atalanta has now shipped seven goals during its three game slide, and 12 goals in its last seven matches. The offenses Atalanta have recently faced are undoubtedly of a higher quality, but this recent run of defensive form is a far cry from what Atalanta fans were treated to in the early part of the season. High level mistakes continue to bite Atalanta, and La Dea pay for it with clear cut chances for the opponent. Edin Dzeko’s brace came of chances of 0.45 and 0.76 xG respectively, and he’s taking both of those chances right inside Juan Musso’s six yard box. How Dzeko is able to live rent free inside the six yard box is puzzling, but it isn’t a freak occurrence. Both Victor Osimhen and Federico Baschirotto’s recent goals against Atalanta have also come from less than five yards away from the goal line.
Meanwhile, out of all of Atalanta’s 16 shots against Inter, only the improbable headed goal from Palomino was shot from less than 10 yards away.
While Palomino’s goal did give Atalanta one last chance at securing a draw, it wasn’t meant to be. Two goals seems to be Atalanta’s limit this season, and it hasn’t been able to break that iron ceiling and hit the three goal mark since Torino at the beginning of August.
Perhaps two months to reflect and regroup will do the boys some good.
Three Match Takeaways, Plus Two Free Ones
One – An injury in warmups to Rafael Toloi saw Gian Piero Gasperini overhaul his lineup. Giorgio Scalvini, originally slotted (likely) to play left centerback was thrust into the midfield, and Merih Demiral was then joined in a centerback partnership with Jose Luis Palomino. As great as it was to see Palomino contributing so soon following his reinstatement back with the club, it was evident that there was still some rust lingering in his game, as expected. He was able to help nullify his own goal with a goal of his own, but perhaps the most interesting aspect of his game is that he was playing to begin with. Palomino automatically jumped over Berat Djimsiti and Caleb Okoli in the pecking order, likely making him the third choice centerback option behind a healthy Rafael Toloi and Merih Demiral. Maybe I’m reading too much into Gasperini’s lineup decision, but Palomino’s insertion back into the lineup doesn’t do Djimsiti any favors. Hot-take, Djimsiti is a surprise outgoing transfer for Atalanta this January, as Atalanta doesn’t need to carry six centerbacks.
Two – Joakim Maehle continued his bright run of offensive form, and against Inter he was Atalanta’s offensive everyman. The Dane led Atalanta in touches, offensive touches (tied with Ademola Lookman), passes attempted and completed, shot creating actions, progressive passes, passes into the final third, and expected assists (tied with Mario Pasalic). Recently he’s become the offensive funnel for Atalanta and one of the club’s main catalysts for progressing the ball. His blunder covering Edin Dzeko for Inter’s second goal prevents him from becoming man of the match, but his offensive output continues to be important – even if it isn’t yet translating to goals either for himself or teammates.
Three – Above I touched on the shot quality that Atalanta has recently conceded, including against Inter. But not only was Atalanta’s shot stopping prevention poor, but its own shot creation was relatively weak, comparatively speaking. Even though Atalanta may have produced three more non-penalty shots than Inter, the quality was poor. Atalanta’s average shot was three yards further away, produced 2.5x less xG, and 3x less xGoT. The clear-cut chances that Inter was able to create were undeniably beneficial, and carry the team’s average up on every shot metric. This is even more impressive given that Inter only had three shots on target excluding the own-goal. In key matches Scudetto winning teams are able to produce, convert, and capitalize the necessary high chance opportunities to steer the tide in their favor. Is Atalanta able to turn on the offensive switch and start doing the same to its opponents?
Freebie One – While Atalanta has only won the possession battle in three of its fifteen matches this year, the recent brand of Atalanta football has seen Atalanta at least bring the possession battle a bit closer to a 50/50 toss-up. But is that necessarily a good thing? Since the Sassuolo match, Atalanta has had at least 47% possession in each match, a figure it hit twice in the first nine matches of the year. So what’s happened since that switch to become more possession dominant?
A couple of things stick out. First, there was at least harmony between actual goals and expected goals in the first nine matches. Atalanta may have been overperforming its expected metrics, but it at least made sense. The defense was solid, and besides the frenzy in Rome the shape was strong and robust. But the last few rounds have Atalanta all over the map, and crazily have Atalanta putting up a better xGD than in the first nine matches (Sassuolo and Empoli victories do help to sway this number more in Atalanta’s favor). Still the gulf between goals allowed and expected goals allowed hearkens us back to the doldrums of last Spring in which Atalanta was the darling of the computers, but that was it. Some of the same worrying trends from last year are starting to creep back into this squad (mainly permitting too many good chances for opposition that expected models tend to underrate). Atalanta will be on pace to concede over 54 goals this season if these goal trends continue, effectively eliminating Atalanta from Champion’s League contention. Just as a strong defense brought Atalanta to the top of the table early in the season, it has to be the priority to write all the wrongs of these last three matches.
Freebie Two – When Atalanta started its brutal streak of eight matches at the beginning of October, I posited that 14 points out of 24 would have been successful. So how did Atalanta perform?
- Fiorentina – 3 points
- Udinese – 1 point
- Sassuolo – 3 points
- Lazio – 0 points
- Empoli – 3 points
- Napoli – 0 points
- Lecce – 0 points
- Inter – 0 points
So ten points earned, missing out on one victory and one draw. The missed victory is an obvious one – Atalanta really has no business losing to Lecce. But maybe most concerning is those three goose eggs to direct competitors for Champion’s League spots. I wasn’t expecting or even asking Atalanta to win any of those games. The ask was simple with one draw out of three, and it couldn’t be delivered. So far Atalanta has taken 1 point out of 15 from teams ahead of it in the table. If Atalanta is expected to compete at the top of the table, taking points off rivals is compulsory, for more than anything to demonstrate that you belong at the top of the table.
Back to Originally Scheduled Programming with Nick’s Match Ratings
Juan Musso: 6 – He had some ghastly distribution efforts, but we just know that’s part of his game now.
Merih Demiral: 6
Jose Luis Palomino: 6.5 – A goal is a great way to make a season debut, even if it was coupled with a lightning quick own goal.
Hans Hateboer: 5.5 – The Dutchman’s first time wearing the arm band was not a memorable one, as he has had a few consecutive games again as an offensive liability.
Joakim Maehle: 7
Giorgio Scalvini: 6.5
Ederson: 7
Mario Pasalic: 6 – He was more energetic offensively, but his bizarre decision to try and make a cross field pass in the first half was the catalyst that led to Inter’s first goal.
Teun Koopmeiners: 6 – Why he was playing left attacking midfield in the first half is anyone’s guess. He looked better in the second half in a more natural position.
Ademola Lookman: 7
Duvan Zapata: 6
Ruslan Malinovskyi: 5
Rasmus Hojlund: 6.5 – His energy, speed, and strength independent from his technique now makes me think he should be starting over Zapata.
Caleb Okoli: 6.5
Jeremie Boga: n/a
Nick’s Man of the Match – Ederson
Its Ederson’s second consecutive man of the match award, and sadly its again coupled with a defeat. However, the defeat should not take away from how omnipresent he was on the pitch. Beyond leading the squad in defensive tackles and ball recoveries, his long passing was on point, completing all seven of his long pass attempts. He had a keen eye on finding the open space to deliver these passes and get attacks flowing again. A press breaker in every sense of the word, this is something Atalanta had been missing in midfield for awhile. Let’s hope he continues to play further back in the midfield once the season starts up again. This is where the full breadth of his skills shine through.
If you were to ask Atalanta fans at the beginning of the season how they would rate a third of the campaign that saw Atalanta in sixth place on 27 points, only three points behind Inter and Lazio for 4th place, and four points behind Juventus for third – I think most would rate it a 7 or a 7.5 campaign. I surely would have.
Now ask that same question after witnessing a three match losing streak and losing four out of five. Does your answer change? Maybe a bit, and its hard to blame one for choosing a lower rating. When we have a week between matches to pick apart and dwell on poor results, it sometimes becomes impossible to see the forest for the trees. The details become suffocating, preventing us from grasping the full picture. While the loss to Inter capped off an unimpressive run of form, let’s not forget that we still have to couple it with the excellent form displayed to start the season, and one or two tweaks could have this team firing on all cylinders once again.
During the break, I’ll try to examine a few things that may help the team to regain its form, but for now let’s take a well needed rest from some Atalanta football and enjoy the rare treat of a World Cup smack dab in the middle of the season in which players are already on peak form. So until 2023, let’s keep chugging, and Forza Dea!
