Date: January 15, 2023
Time: 18:00 CET | 12:00 EST
A Quick Tale of the Tape
Atalanta: 6th | 31 points | +8 GD | +9.1 xGD
Salernitana: 14th | 18 points | -6 GD | -14.2 xGD
Its been awhile since I have dropped a preview coming off an Atalanta victory. I must say, it inspires much confidence writing about continuing a winning streak rather than how do we stop the bleeding! And with Sunday’s opponent being one that Atalanta should (key word: should) handle, let’s just hope that Gian Piero Gasperini has the proper game plan in place to tackle an enigmatic Salernitana side.
Halfway through last season, no one would have put money on Salernitana to stave off relegation. Yet, with a furious second half turnaround, combined with a little bit of luck, mixed in with some disastrous performances from recent Serie A staples, Salernitana survived. Now going on year two in its recent journey in the top division, I Granata looks to be good money to stay in the top flight for at least one more season. Sitting 14th in the league, plus 1 point off the glut of teams ranging from 11th to 13th place, Salernitana did well to restock its depth proving that it can become more than just a Serie A one hit wonder.
Atalantini obviously know that last season’s revelation, Ederson, is now lacing up the boots for the good guys, but Salernitana lost few difference makers from last season. Beyond Milan Djuric, one could argue that there were no other key departures for Italy’s southern most squad, and moreover the depth the club brought in has it ready to be seen as more than a guaranteed relegation candidate. Front to back Salernitana has strengthened every position on the pitch. From striker Boulaye Dia, to midfielder Giulio Maggiore, to winger Antonio Candreva, to centerback Flavius Daniliuc – key contributions are players that were found by astute scouting. Add in the ageless wonder Guillermo Ochoa in net, and this is a Salernitana side that can put forth a competitive match with most in the division.
While its easy to be complementary of Salernitana’s entire organizational effort, lets not get carried away and suggest that this is not a match that Atalanta shouldn’t be trying to earn maximum points. For all the work Salernitana has done to achieve a midtable position, I Granata sits dead last in expected goal differential (-14.2 xGD), and have yet to eclipse the 2.0 xG mark in a game this season. I wouldn’t be surprised if Davide Nicola has tapped into some dark voodoo magic to have Salernitana continually outperform its expected metrics, but throw witchcraft out the window and the message is clear – this is a match that Atalanta should control.
Should and will are words that may as well be miles apart, especially when it comes to Atalanta, but hopefully the squad turned a corner with a solid away victory at Bologna and continues to build on that positive momentum.
Against Salernitana, it all comes down to – attack, attack, attack! In its last four games, Salernitana has permitted 2.8, 2.4, 2.7, and 2.2 expected goals allowed, simultaneously earning only one point during this time frame. Memo Ochoa has been heroic to ensure that actual goals allowed hasn’t matched the expected output, but that should not prevent Atalanta from trying to pepper Salernitana’s goals with shots. Permitting 15.6 shots/match – Salernitana is third worst in the division in preventing both shots and shots on target – and also rates third worst in the league in average opponent shot distance. La Dea should be getting into the box often, and Rasmus Hojlund should be licking his lips to finish off high percentage chances.
Nick’s Preferred Starting XI
My prediction and desire has never been met with agreement by the skipper, and I doubt this week is any different. Surely there is good reason to think Gasperini opts for a back three of Giorgio Scalvini, Merih Demiral, and Rafael Toloi, and its evident that the standard double pivot in Bergamo is Dutch, with Teun Koopmeiners and Marten de Roon.
But the pacey positions are all up for grabs, and it is really anyone’s guess on what Gasperini chooses. To begin, can we all agree that Rasmus Hojlund is now the starting center forward until further notice? He is blossoming into something special right before our eyes. But who supplants him? Ademola Lookman was a curious omission from Monday’s action, but assuming he’s healthy he has to start alongside the big Dane.
Now for the question that everyone is anxious to see answered, does Atalanta’s #10 get an opportunity to duplicate his best match in black and blue? More to come on Jeremie Boga later, but with the Ivorian apparently off the market, surely he gets every chance to come good on the serious investment made on his services.
Wingback continues to be a dice roll, both regarding predictions and Gasperini’s actual choice. Surprisingly no one has played more minutes at wingback in 2023 than Matteo Ruggeri. Yes you’re reading that right! Results have been mixed with the young 20 year-old. I admittedly was a bit too hard on him following the Spezia match, but is he really Atalanta’s best choice on the left right now? Maybe, maybe not – but I guess its not the worst idea in the world to start him against a squad like Salernitana to see if he can come good again. However, I’d rather go with Maehle on the left, as I feel he was getting into a good groove right before the World Cup break. He has a knack for working well off a creative ball player on the left wing, and he may be able to link up well with Jeremie Boga if the Ivorian gets the starting nod. On the right, we’re still waiting for a Brandon Soppy sighting, and it could be delayed further with Davide Zappacosta’s successful foray against Bologna. Still against a team that is leaky defensively, give me as many offensive weapons as possible, including the Frenchman.
Atalanta Player to Watch – Jeremie Boga
Jeremie Boga picked up both assists against Bologna on Monday. One was maybe the easiest assist of his life (thanks Koop), and the other was the end product of an exquisite run that Atalantini have been waiting for him to pull off for nearly a year now. Atalanta brass promptly removed Boga from the transfer list following his performance, and like most fans, management must think that this match was enough of a confidence boost to propel Boga into a competent offensive player.
Its important to not get carried away with the results after one match, but its impossible not to do it. Atalanta still has about 22 million reasons for Boga to come good on his raw talent. For a player that has only featured for 125 minutes this season, he has a few kilos of rust to shake off. Just like Ruggeri above, is there a better opponent than Salernitana to assess whether Boga can take another step forward?
Atalanta has a big week ahead of it, with a Coppa Italia rematch against Spezia midweek followed by a date with the Old Lady next Sunday. The old adage of taking one game at a time, has thus never rang truer. Three points here and now in the present bodes well for Atalanta entering the halfway point of the season.
If Atalanta can come through with a victory, it will have a minimum of 34 points entering the halfway point of the season. Simply extrapolating that over a full season gets Atalanta to 68 points. Sure its a super oversimplification, but 68 points keeps Atalanta in fighting contention for the Champion’s League. FiveThirtyEight projects teams need at least 71 points this season to earn a UCL berth. A break or two in the right direction, plus actually playing the club’s best starting XI from here on out gives the squad more than a puncher’s chance of staying relevant in Europe’s biggest tournament. Not saying it will happen, but the odds continue to remain high by taking three points in the matches that you need to earn three points. So let’s go out, take no prisoners, and look to put away as many goals as we can! As always, Forza Dea!
