Date: October 30, 2022
Time: 12:30 CET | 7:30 EST (Daylight savings time in Europe!)
A Quick Tale of the Tape
Empoli: 12th | 11 points | -6 GD | -7.7 xGD | Top Scorer: Filippo Bandinelli, 2 goals
Atalanta: 4th | 24 points | 8 GD | 5.7 xGD | Top Scorer: Teun Koopmeiners and Ademola Lookman, 4 goals
For the first time this season Gian Piero Gasperini and Atalanta are tasked with testing their resiliency. After a drab loss to Lazio, in which La Dea exuded minimal spirit and offensive ideas, the squad gets to take on a different shade of blue a bit further north of Rome in the form of Empoli. Atalanta’s last match of the previous 2021/22 season is likely still fresh on most Atalantini’s mind. Not only did we witness a masterclass in goal from Guglielmo Vicario, it guaranteed Atalanta had no shot of making European football for this season (although Atalanta’s result ended up not mattering).
Not only is it improbable that Atalanta will register another whopping 40 shots (let alone half that!), Atalanta will have to contend with another episode of attacking carousel with Luis Muriel suspended after his red card against Lazio. A still disciplined defense and tepid Empoli offense should keep Atalanta in this match, but will a new assortment of offensive players be enough to score a decisive goal or two?
How Does Atalanta Stop Empoli?
Empoli has settled into the season nicely in its second season back in the top flight. New coach Paolo Zanetti has done good work with a side that lost quite a few key pieces from last year including: Samuele Ricci, Kristjan Asllani, Matti Viti, and Andrea Pinamonti. Nonetheless, recent staples of the Azzurri like former Atalantino Nicolas Haas, Petar Stojanovic, Fabiano Parisi, and Nedim Bajrami still gives Empoli a solid young core to build a competitive team around.
Still, Empoli finds itself in a similar dilemma to that of Atalanta last year – that is, it is positively allergic to scoring. Empoli is in the bottom four of Serie A in both goals scored and expected goals, and settles for far too many shots outside the box; gli azzurri have the second longest average shot distance, suggesting the squad struggles to make solid headway into opposition penalty areas. On top of that, Empoli’s chances inside its opposition’s danger areas is limited – the Tuscan side is last in passes entering the opposition’s final third. Not the most encouraging offensive numbers…
Yet, if Empoli is able to make Atalanta uncomfortable, it likely will come from its wingers. Both Stojanovic and Parisi are high octane fullbacks that make a heavy impact on both sides of the ball. Look for both to lead attacks with their dribbling abilities – in particular Parisi who is in God-tier range when it comes to completed dribbles. I posited in the summertime that Atalanta should have tried to sign the young Italian, and I stand by that claim!
But without a reliable goal scorer, sorry Sam Lammers, far too frequently many of Empoli’s attacks peter out and become nothing more than half hearted half chances. This should hopefully be an impetus for Atalanta to get more numbers forward, and drive the ball forward with what will be a much more offensive midfield. Marten de Roon’s absence should permit Ederson to slot into the double pivot, giving Atalanta its first look at a Teun Koopmeiners – Ederson double pivot. Throw Joakim Maehle into the mix, and that gives Atalanta three midfielders looking to progress the ball, as long as Koopmeiners doesn’t overcompensate in security due to the absence of his countryman.
Nick’s Preferred Starting XI
I doubt there are any major surprises in the back or at midfield. Both Brandon Soppy and Caleb Okoli demonstrated their raw nature against Lazio and are probably due for a rest. On the other hand an opponent like Empoli could be a perfect bounce back opposition. Still I’ll go with the tried and true hands in Berat Djimsiti and Hans Hateboer.
The attack is where things start to get interesting. Luis Muriel is suspended leaving Atalanta without a first tier progression option. Ademola Lookman may have some wiggle in him yet, but I’m more than fine leaving him to being the attacking deputy. However, without Muriel it makes it logical to insert Duvan Zapata into the fold, which completely alters how the attack functions, purely because of the big Colombian’s presence.
One one hand the presence of Zapata adds to the possibilities in attack – as he is capable of acting as a lightning rod for pings and passes, with the ability to dish the ball out to willing runners like Lookman and Mario Pasalic. On the other hand, it goes counter to the counterattack to what has worked well for Atalanta’s offense this year that has still produced the 6th most xG this season. There’s the risk that Atalanta reverts back into Duvan hoofball – but honestly, if Lookman keeps making his dangerous runs it may become a valid strategy. We’ll see.
Still I think most offenses thrive, including Atalanta’s, with a reliable dribbler and ball possessor. Even with his rust, Jermie Boga gives me fewer heart palpitations than Ruslan Malinovskyi, and he provides a much stronger plan B if Zapata is not able to shake off the swarm of defenders likely to be hounding him.
Atalanta Player to Watch – Ederson
Life has been difficult for Ederson ever since his firecracker debut against Hellas Verona. Learning to jive with a new system while learning a new position cannot be easy, so he deserves the benefit of the doubt with his uneven start. But Sunday may be his best chance to play at his natural position, and frankly if it wasn’t for the consistency of de Roon and Koopmeiners – it can be easily argued that Ederson should just be slotted into the midfield each week.
So if we are fortunate to witness Ederson occupy the midfield, look for the Brazilian to dart forward in possession and be the perfect offensive compliment to Koopmeiners and his long ball. A front three of Zapata, Lookman, and Boga could make the midfield vulnerable to a counterattack that leaves Ederson out of place after one of his streaking runs – but this match could come down to overloads that forces Atalanta to outnumber Empoli when in attack. I think you take the risk of Empoli trying to counter through the middle.
Number of the week: 9.1 – xG quantity of the two combined games in which Atalanta registered over 40 shots and failed to score against Empoli. These games will forever be linked, and we’ll have to continuously live the nightmare of when Vicario and Bart Dragowski said no to Atalanta’s overbearing offense. If there are more lopsided affairs in which a team did not score over such a stretch, bring them forward, because these would be tough to beat.
We knew Atalanta didn’t have an invincible season in it, so rather than dwelling on what could have been, let’s look for an encouraging bounce back. Improvement after failure was sorely missed at the end of last season, so a sterling performance would not only be nice for the table, but also a victory in mentality. The test truly begins here, and we cannot continue to ride the undefeated fairy tale that had so many of us on cloud nine for the first two months. Now the real work begins, let’s go get it done! As always, Forza Dea!
