Date: October 23, 2022
Time: 18:00 CET | 12:00 EST
A Quick Tale of The Tape
Atalanta: 2nd | 24 points | +10 GD | +6.7 xGD
Lazio: 5th | 21 points | +16 GD | 0.7 xGD
The Battle of Two Shades of Blue Outperforming Expectations in Different Ways
The battles don’t get any easier for Atalanta. After two consecutive matches against top-10 opponents, Atalanta greets its third top-10 foe to the Gewiss Stadium in Lazio. There’s fewer teams more in form than Maurizio Sarri’s side, and he’ll be hoping to replicate the fireworks his squad was able to shoot off last time both sides met in Bergamo. A thrilling 2-2 draw in Lombardy was capped off by a late stoppage time goal by Marten de Roon. We’re still waiting for a de Roon banger this year, and as they say, there’s no better time than the present!
Everyone knows how Atalanta has already exceeded expectation, mainly led by a stellar defensive body of work. But in fact, Lazio’s defensive performances have at least equaled or maybe even surpassed what Atalanta has done this year. Lazio has the stingiest defense in the league so far, led by a defensive spine that contains heavyweights Ivan Provedel, Alessio Romagnoli, and Patric! That’s a list right there! But five goals against is nothing to sneeze at, even if Sarri’s defense may have gotten a bit lucky this year. An eight goal delta between its five goals conceded versus the thirteen goals expected is the most favorable gap in the league so far -suggesting that Lazio’s true defensive talent lives in the middle of those two metrics.
Still this isn’t the battle of what the computers thought would happen, so fair play to Lazio for severely outplaying its expected metrics for the second year running. Lazio’s ability to always outrun the computers tends to come down to its ability to be clinical in front of net. Unfortunately for Lazio its dangerman Ciro Immobile was sidelined last week and isn’t likely to suit up this weekend. Its a major blow for Lazio, but it doesn’t take away from the heavy build up play a talented offense can still produce. Lazio may be without the clinical striker; but, offensive flow facilitated by a slew of names not limited to: Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Luis Alberto, and Mattia Zaccagni can rub shoulders with anyone else in Italy. Add Manuel Lazzari streaking down the right side, and Lazio is capable of creating attacks down both flanks and through the middle.
Nonetheless, there are no surprises that can be thrown at Atalanta’s defense this year, and the boys will be ready for the task. Caleb Okoli and Giorgio Scalvini continue to grow as each game passes. Additionally no Ciro Immobile should permit Merih Demiral to fully take control of the middle and offer extra support to stop either Alberto or SMS working through the middle of the pitch. Easier said than done, of course, when your opposition is one of the best players in Serie A – looking at you SMS.
Nick’s Preferred Starting XI
As well as Brandon Soppy played last week, this one feels like a Hans Hateboer game. For all of Soppy’s promise on offense, it is still uncertain how strong of a defender he is, and with the like of Zaccagni running around like a chicken with his head cut off, I’d much prefer the tried and true defender to deal with all of Zaccagni’s tricks and antics. Beyond that move, there really isn’t a whole lot that needs to be changed from last week.
Atalanta rolled against Sassuolo and looked strong in every department. Don’t fix what isn’t broke, especially with the relationship continuing to blossom between Luis Muriel and Ademola Lookman. Throw Joakim Maehle into the mix as a dangerous option to work off Muriel too, especially if there’s space left in defense by an offensively minded Lazzari. Rumors are also strong that Duvan Zapata is ready to come back into the fold. He participated in Atalanta’s midweek friendly, but it feels too soon for him to enter the lineup as a starter. In fact, it feels weird to even use him as a substitute, so maybe he gets another full week of recovery to come back fresh against Empoli.
The only other interesting tidbit to keep an eye on is how the young defenders are flanked on Merih Demiral’s sides. Caleb Okoli and Giorgio Scalvini both saw time at left and right center back against Sassuolo, and matchups may play another key role. I’d personally be more keen to start Okoli on the right. He’s more reticent to lunge in for a tackle, and the last thing we need Scalvini doing is picking up an early yellow card because Mattia Zaccagni is play acting like he’s in a community theater class. Thus, Scalvini probably matches up better against a more direct attacker in Felipe Anderson.
Atalanta Player to Watch – Luis Muriel
This may be an obvious one, but he is one of Atalanta’s most in-form players, which says a lot given how well the team has performed so far this season. A slow start has been pushed to the wayside, where he’s played distributor more than scorer this year – which is fine when you have Lookman to bang in his passes with relative ease.
A lion’s share of the work will fall on Muriel to dissect an Alessio Romagnoli led defense that has continued to outperform advanced defensive metrics in the early going. And if there’s one guy to bring Lazio’s defense back down to earth, it’s Muriel. Only Brahim Diaz, and Muriel’s French teammate, have averaged more goal creating actions per 90 minutes (a goal creating action is a pass or the pass before a pass that leads to a goal), with four of his five contributions coming in the last three matches. However, given Gasperini’s recent penchant for substituting the Colombian and his Nigerian teammate after sixty minutes, the onus is on Atalanta to push early and hard, and then preferably keep pushing for a full 90 minutes. No mercy for a team that can strike as quickly as Lazio.
If Atalanta can secure a win on Sunday, it will be the squad’s fourth victory at home this year. Atalanta had four total home victories all of last season! La Dea’s penchant for ignoring home and road splits has led to me as a fan to ignore it too for the most part. But I don’t think it can be understated how important it is for Atalanta to continue its good run of home form.
During this difficult stretch of matches, Atalanta is fortunate to have both Lazio, Napoli, and Inter at home. Which is as favorable a schedule as you can have for this stretch – given that all of aforementioned opponents are battling on two fronts. Let’s use this newfound, but apparently should-have-always-been-there, home field advantage to our benefit, and make Atalanta doubly unenviable an opponent to play. Road warrior mentality with a team comfortable in its own confines, I wonder what that is like? Who knows, maybe Atalanta will finally show us this year – and it could be shaping up that way if we get a hot start against this Lazio side! As always, Forza Dea!
