By now it’s probably not news to anyone, but we shouldn’t expect to see Merih Demiral in blue and black next year. Even more surprising is Atalanta not facilitating an offseason action to guarantee he’s not playing in Atalanta colors – unless you consider Atalanta’s inaction as an action, but we’re just playing semantics at that point! Amid reporters from journalists, all indications point to Demiral returning to Juventus – and the dreams of a Cristian Romero 2.0 are rapidly fading away.
Its been quite the tumultuous few months for Merih Demiral and his future. As Atalanta treaded water through the winter and held strong in the Europa League, a Merih Demiral led defense was one of the bright spots of Atalanta’s second half. Then Atalanta exited the Europa League through defeat to RB Leipzig, and Demiral only started twice more for La Dea, swiftly being pulled in both contests against Hellas Verona and Salernitana.
Why one of Atalanta’s most consistent performers stopped seeing the field towards the end of the season is a head scratcher. With the news of him returning to Turin, it helps to put some puzzle pieces in place that not everything was a (Turkish) delight at the back, leaving us to figure out what went wrong. So let’s play everyone’s favorite game of outrageous speculation to land on what may have gone wrong….
Laying Out the Facts – What we do know
First off, let’s start off with some facts that could help us to frame our story.
- Atalanta paid roughly 3M euros for his initial loan spell, and based on various reports the club could have purchased him outright for somewhere between 20M and 25M euros.
- Demiral is still young at 24 years of age
- His Transfermarkt.com value at the time of his loan deal was $30.8M and has decreased to $27.5M as of today’s writing. (IMO his value feels low)
- This is Demiral’s first season playing over 2,000 total minutes – and it was an encouraging sign that he was beyond his knee injuries. This was the first time since the 2018/2019 season that he logged at least 2,000 minutes across all competitions.
- By many metrics, Demiral had an excellent season, and played a very good enforcer in the middle for Atalanta.
The Wild Speculation
Worrying Fitness Concerns
While his in-season form and fitness does not suggest injury problems, perhaps there is a concern with his medical record that Atalanta was worried could hurt his value. An ACL injury can be scary, but maybe there were some indications of relapse stemming from previous injuries. Validity Rating: Highly Unlikely
Wages Too High
According to Capology.com Demiral was the highest paid player on Atalanta last year – at roughly 3.7M GBP, which is 0.4M more than Zapata was paid. The lack of European prize money coming in could be a concern, but with the money from Cristian Romero finally coming through, paying wages shouldn’t be an issue (especially with Atalanta’s stellar fiscal record). Additionally, Atalanta will likely shed high salaries with the sales of Aleksei Miranchuk (2.8M GBP) and Hans Hateboer (1.5M GBP) – perhaps even Josip Ilicic too (3.3M GBP). Validity Rating: Dubious
Double Take Theories
Doesn’t Fit Gasperini’s System
On paper this makes no sense, as Demiral’s aggressive nature is perfect to play in Gian Piero Gasperini’s back three. While he’s a great one-on-one defender, he does lack some of the skills of the “modern day defender.” His passing range is limited, and he really only thrives in a no-nonsense type of role. Hell would probably freeze over before Gasperini truly shook up his system, but you never know. Validity Rating: Dubious
Better Options on the Depth Chart
Demiral was an integral member of Atalanta’s defense last year, and was a no-brainer to start in the back three. However, Rafael Toloi’s injury made choosing Demiral a lot simpler. With Jose Luis Palomino continuing to excel, and Toloi hopefully back to full strength – it gives Atalanta leeway to rotate Berat Djimsiti and Giorgio Scalvini. Additionally, Atalanta looks to be putting a lot of faith in Caleb Okoli (and even Matteo Lovato), who possess similar no-nonsense traits to Demiral. Validity Rating: Luke-warm
I Guess I See It
The Market Isn’t Willing to Pay What Atalanta Would Want
There is debate about how much Atalanta would actually need to pay Juventus to permanently sign the Turk, but most estimates are between 20 and 25 million euros. On the surface this seems like a no-brainer, given that some large clubs were loosely linked to Demiral in the winter. In the current market it is unlikely that Atalanta could secure Romero-like money for Demiral, let alone a figure close to 40 million euros. With speculation that only Newcastle was interested in Demiral, it may not have been a financially feasible move for Atalanta to only sell him for, let’s say, 30 million euros – making only a few million in profit. Not spending the money on Demiral is 20 million euros saved that can be spent on other areas of need immediately. Validity Rating: Plausible
Disagreements with the Gaffer
Everyone knows that Gasperini can be prickly to deal with; neither his players nor the media is exempt from this. A dispute between Demiral and Gasperini over a variety of different things does not feel out of the question – especially given Demiral’s absence from the starting lineup over the last six weeks of the season. Validity Rating: Plausible
The Verdict
There’s never a clear cut answer for everything, but it feels like a combination of the current state of the market plus a likely strained relationship this spring was enough for Atalanta to look elsewhere for centerback options. Demiral is a really good centerback, but is it worth spending an additional 25M euros for him, knowing the risk that another team may not cooperate for a quick turnaround sale? It would be great to keep Demiral, but the money saved by not purchasing the Turk likely shows management’s confidence in its young centerbacks – thus permitting the squad to use the cash on areas of the squad where depth is really needed (hello wingbacks).
Of course this is all speculation, but with the way the market is heading Atalanta wanted to cut its losses rather than being burdened with a bigger problem later. Time will tell, but for now let’s all wish Demiral the best of luck in his future endeavors! And as always, Forza Dea!!!
