Tom Underhill explained it best when he came onto the AtalantaPOD. I’m paraphrasing a bit – but essentially he stated that a defender has to be a bit mental to play in Atalanta’s backline. The average Atalanta follower will know that this is not hyperbole, and it is actually a clear cut definition of Atalanta’s curious backline. Of course Tom will get more into it in his book dropping this summer “The Work Hands of a Goddess” (go read it!). But in the meantime let’s try to figure out a couple of things that may help to harness and direct that craziness to good use.
What Do We Know?
Over the last few years there has been surprisingly minimal turnover in Atalanta’s defense. All three of Jose Luis Palomino, Rafael Toloi, and Berat Djimsiti have either cemented themselves as staples of the starting eleven, or heavy rotation players. Stalwarts may come and go (like Cristian Romero and Merih Demiral), but the three elder statesmen will likely be counted on again to be steady presences for Atalanta at the back. And during their respective tenures not a whole lot has changed in how Atalanta lines up defensively.
In the past three seasons, Atalanta has yielded anywhere from 36 to 40 non-penalty expected goals per match, and actual goals conceded seems stuck on that 47-48 goal mark. Some of the underlying numbers this year suggest that something under the engine is drying out a bit – and may be in need of a bit of greasing. See the chart below:
It was the worst of both worlds for Atalanta. The squad conceded (by its standard) an extremely high quantity of shots, while simultaneously giving opponents good opportunities to score. La Dea could get away with a higher npxG per shot in 2020/21 because the defense gave up 20% less shots than this year. But when the defense isn’t as stingy as it was two years ago – that’s when problems can compound – and it put Atalanta in a world of pain this year.
From the chart above it is evident that the league’s best defenses successfully prevented good shots from being taken. Just look at Atalanta and Torino for comparison. Same 387 shots yielded, but Torino’s shot quality permitted was 25% to the positive, and Ivan Juric’s side yielded 9 less xG as a result. But where Torino benefits is not having ten players bomb forward to participate in the offense. Gleison Bremer, Kofi Djidji, and Ricardo Rodriguez benefit from getting to pester the opposition offense without the impending doom of a dangerous counterattack always brewing in the background. There is a balance of having a really busy defensive backline and an offense that doesn’t hang its defenders out to dry. Juric’s Torino seemed to find it – but of course it comes at the expense of goals scored. Bringing Juric’s defense to Gasperini’s offense would be peak Atalanta – if it could ever be tapped….
Cool the Breaks, Perhaps?
Statistically Atalanta was dominant in 2022. Jose Luis Palomino had a season for the ages – one could argue it was statistically one of the best seasons in recent memory for centerbacks. Additionally, all of Djimsiti, Demiral, Toloi, and Palomino enjoyed fantastic individual seasons – but still somehow the expected goals allowed creeped up 10% from year’s past.
There may be an answer from 3 years ago… Take a look at the Atalanta players in 2020 on the above chart. Only Jose Luis Palomino falls in the Top 30 among Atalanta players, and in fact both Toloi and Djimsiti fall quite far down the list. Its not a perfect one to one comparison because the league’s defense got much more aggressive over the past two seasons, but it still may be pointing at a potential fix for Atalanta.
If you remember from the chart above, in 2019/20 Atalanta conceded more shots than any other season in recent years, but it also resulted in the squad’s best mark in expected goals per shot. The logic checks out with the aggressiveness of Djimsiti and Toloi in 2019/20 as well. Both ‘stayed off’ the ball a bit more – which resulted in more shots, but likely more contested shots and difficult opportunities for opponents.
Is that the middle ground? Why does Atalanta need every single defender ruthlessly dogging opposition ball carriers? Is it better to have one member of the back three sit a bit further back and sweep up danger that the busier defenders cannot immediately address? All valid questions without a concrete answer, but I think trends suggest that Atalanta cannot afford to be as aggressively in defense. Obvious this problem cannot be viewed in a vacuum, and the defense’s high line is linked to the offense’s static attack in possession, and the pivot’s penchant for pushing forward. But without this article running for 4,000 plus words, let’s just focus on what we can control.
Controlled Aggression and Playing the MatchUps
Let’s take the strengths and weaknesses of Atalanta’s three centerbacks. I’m assuming Merih Demiral will not return to Atalanta next year, so once again Atalanta will be left with its tried and true lifers that can’t seem to shake the squad (and we can’t shake them either!)
Rafael Toloi
Strengths: Excellent going forward – the best ballplayer of Atalanta centerbacks. Great in duels and hassling opponents.
Weaknesses: Switches off in the box, lacks positional awareness at times.
Berat Djimsiti
Strengths: Elite aerially – consistently wins three-quarters of his aerial duels.
Weaknesses: No outstanding weaknesses beyond not truly standing out in any one particular area. He’s vanilla (which isn’t a bad thing).
Jose Luis Palomino
Strengths: Elite ball winner and positioning – No one outside of Atalanta’s fanbase wants to admit that he is a top 10 centerback in the league.
Weaknesses: Overly aggressive and error prone, which he nicely cleaned up this past year.
So what can Atalanta do to utilize the strengths of all three of its centerbacks? Let’s start at the back. Berat Djimsiti seems to be the obvious choice to act as a last line of defense. He’s doesn’t have the offensive pizzazz of Toloi – so he doesn’t really offer anything going forward, but his aerial prowess makes him the best option to sniff out counterattacks. Essentially he becomes Merih Demiral without the aggression or more like the Chris Smalling of Roma’s back three. This would be a completely new look for Atalanta, given that Berat Djimsiti has barely played in the middle for Atalanta – and also is the most worrisome of how I want to lay out the back three.
Second is Palomino. Everyone knows that Seis’s strengths are bothering opposition attackers with his lanky bowlegs, and Gasperini should continue to let him do what he does best. He can sit a bit in front of Djimsiti on the left side and immediately harass any attacker that starts hunting into his area. This then leaves Rafael Toloi to pick up the hybrid role of hassling opponents (like Palomino) but also get the freedom to march forward and participate in the attack – which also necessitates Marten de Roon dropping deep to help in defense.
Not big changes, but hopefully the a layer of protection at the back from Atalanta’s weakest ball winner can get Atalanta conceding less expected goals per shot.
The Wrong Side of 30
The biggest problem now becomes relying on three centerbacks that are thirty or will be thirty next season. Guile and savviness come with age, but it wouldn’t hurt Atalanta to get some springy and lithe players at most all positions – centerback included. Giorgio Scalvini is the wildcard and likely a really handy swiss army knife that could fill in most defensive positions in a pinch. I’d reckon he gets used in a variety of roles as everyone including him continues to ascertain what his best position is (a good problem to have). Otherwise, Atalanta may have to look out on the open market. Caleb Okoli may not be the best fifth option of the bench, yet, and Matteo Lovato continues to be unconvincing. So let’s hit the open market and see if there are any gems that are waiting for us to be uncovered.
The Progessors: Hiroki Ito (Stuttgart-$4.95M) and Facundo Medina (Lens-$12.1M)
Both Ito and Medina have wands for left foots and ranked in the top eight of all centerbacks in Ligue 1, Serie A, Bundesliga, and La Liga in expected threat added for centerbacks. Medina is more of a duel threat with his excellent dribbling, making him more of a like to like replacement for Toloi. Ito, who is more of a passing based progressor, could also moonlight as a Djimsiti like libero with his handy ball playing skills. The Japanese is not adept in the air, so he would likely have to be paired with someone like Palomino or Djimsiti to give the defense an aerial presence.
The Enforcers: Johan Vasquez (Genoa-$4.4M) and Samir (Watford-$5.5M)
Both gentlemen are not strangers to Atalanta fans and Serie A fans alike – with Vasquez making a name for himself with Genoa, and Samir bullying everyone with Udinese before he went off to England with Watford. Both players are on squads that have been relegated and could perhaps be had on a discount (there have even been small rumors linking Atalanta to Vasquez). Samir, however, is an even more interesting option. While being equally pesky in defense as Vasquez, he is also strong in the air making him a Gary Medel like bulldog at the back with ups (and an extra six inches of height advantage).
Pulling Together the Hypotheticals
Let’s assume Atalanta procures the services of Ito and Samir for this exercise. That gives La Dea a lineup to mix and match Toloi, Djimsiti, Palomino, Ito, Samir, and Scalvini – with loads of depth to mix and match in the progressor, enforcer, and libero roles. In fact, Atalanta could field two lineups and mix and match, while providing necessary depth that the squad lacked last year.
Regardless of what Atalanta does next year, the squad just needs options. Atalanta’s defensive loco factor will always be high, but it is more manageable when those odd puzzle pieces fit the odd vacancies on a jigsawed pitch. Atalanta’s run of 2019/20 showed that there is a happy balance between crazy and calm, let’s try to find that balance and make defending fun again! As always, Forza Dea!
