2,800 Words to Whet Your Appetite for A Wild Incoming Season in Bergamo
Technically the season has started, but then again the transfer market hasn’t finished – so its still up to the writer’s discretion on when to dish out the season preview. Today feels like the day! We have one match under the belt, and a pretty good idea of what’s happening in the transfer market the final week, so let’s get cracking.
Table of Contents
- I. Summer Transfer Recap
- II. Squad Rotation and Depth
- III. Players to Watch
- IV. What Does Success Look Like
Summer Transfer Recap
It was a hot summer in every way imaginable. Never has the squad seen such turnover – and the good thing – hardly any of it was bad or even questionable. Selling Rasmus Hojlund for at least 75M euros set up Atalanta to dish out cash like it never has before. Record transfer signing in the form of El Bilal Toure and tendering a contract to highest wage earner in Atalanta’s history, Gianluca Scamacca, shows a team with intent going into this season. No UCL money be damned! The Hojlund transfer set up Atalanta for the next several years, and it is arguable that the offensive replacements Tony D’Amico and Lee Congerton brought in are comparable assets to Hojlund. But now we have three of them!
Its simply wild the transfer surplus Atalanta has realized since Gasperini tenure started. Assuming the Isak Hien and Emil Holm transfers happen, La Dea are realizing profits that would make the guys over at Blackrock blush. I think its still difficult to ascertain the watershed moment the Hojlund so soon, but La Dea has so much flexibility to take calculated risks and try to ascend into the next echelon of Serie A clubs. It was fun being the plucky upstart underdog, and displacing Fiorentina as the 7th sister, but such a serious cash injection inches La Dea closer and closer to the Roman clubs. And of course owning your own stadium, and having a class youth academy doesn’t hurt either! There’s serious momentum brewing Bergamo, maybe not to be fully realized this year, but the long term health of the club, while never in question, is even further from questionable.
And while the Hojlund deal was watershed, Atalanta finally cut the rest of the fat from the old vision of the club for a handsome sum greater than 100M euros. 108M for Robin Gosens, Matteo Pessina, Merih Demiral, Jeremie Boga, Ruslan Malinovskyi, Joakim Maehle, Sam Lammers, and Emmanuel Latte Lath, excluding Hojlund, is more cash than Atalanta brought in since the summer it lost Dejan Kulusevski, Franck Kessie, Bryan Cristante, and Andrea Petagna. Some of the guys may not have worked out as hoped, like Boga and Maehle, but La Dea masterfully maintained their value, didn’t sell a year too late, and got that sweet capital gain every Twitter accountant loves so much!
Of course with so many outgoing names, it means subsequent deals to backfill the voids on the roster sheet. Forays into the free transfer market with the likes of Sead Kolasinac and Michel Adopo help to keep the cash flows in check, but as mentioned above Atalanta wasn’t scared to quickly spend the cash that came in this summer. Over 50M for Scamacca and Toure is serious dough, with only big Duvan Zapata costing Atalanta more than the tatted Roman (Toure of course is the club record transfer spend). Charles de Ketelaere, on loan, may be Atalanta’s next big investment – and I’m all on board for that happening, given that means he was a key player for La Dea this season (so far so good).
Mitchel Bakker rounds out the known transfers this term. Given he’s featured extensively in European football for both Paris St. Germain and Bayer Leverkusen, would you ever guess he’s only 23?! 10M euros for a young but steady left back with European experience feels like smart business. While he’ll never be a volume goal scorer like Robin Gosens (who will?), he should hopefully shore up the left side that has felt absent since Gosens left for Inter.
Signings of Emil Holm and Isak Hien would just add to a brilliant summer that has already garnered Atalanta three starters in Scamacca, de Ketelaere, and Kolasinac.
Squad Rotation and Depth
I’ll post two lineups. One with my gut feel for Atalanta’s primary starting XI, and then a secondary starting XI – no players repeated.
Lineup One
Lineup Two
The offense is so juicy in lineup one, but the main reason I posted this comparison is to highlight the second squad. I’m cheating a little bit with the addition of Toure, even though he’s injured for about four months, but the point will still stand.
Question: where does squad two finish in Serie A? Its arguable that this team can finish anywhere from 9th to 12th, all with squad players! The defense could be a wild ride, but there’s 11 players on this pitch who have no problem taking minutes in Atalanta colors. Funny enough, Mario Pasalic feels like the weakest link on this team, and even that’s a stretch!
Regardless, Atalanta has 22 players (24 if we count Nadir Zortea and Luis Muriel) that can be called on with some degree of confidence to play meaningful minutes for Gian Piero Gasperini this year. Just as long as the skipper doesn’t flood the left side with the likes of Ruggeri, Zortea, and Zapata in the same match! Still flashbacks to Lecce on the road last year….
Two points, however, stand out as the most vital areas of required depth. First, and it seems innocuous on the surface, is the signing of Michel Adopo. Has Atalanta ever had four midfielders that could reasonably be called on to play in the double pivot? Never again will we have to fear a Mario Pasalic | Matteo Pessina double pivot! Ederson and Adopo are perfect backups, and Adopo’s mirroring de Roon permits the Dutchman to get more rest in his 30s. De Roon seems like he can run forever, but everyone in their 30s can attest to the body just being a little more niggly than it was the previous decade. Plus there’s every possibility that Adopo could just eventually be better than de Roon, but we’ll see!
Second, for all the talk of Il Tridente last season – Gasperini seemed very reluctant to use it. The Ademola Lookman, Boga, and Hojlund combo could wreak havoc on its day, but in reality it probably opened up a lot of gaps in Gasperini’s overall scheme. Boga was non existent when it came to the press, and Hojlund’s almost extreme poacher like qualities made it more challenging for him to blend seamlessly with the rest of the squad. Hojlund is perfect for a squad that has ball wizards in most other positions, but its a little clunky for an Atalanta squad that too often defaults to route 1 hoofball.
However, now with de Ketelaere and Scamacca picking up the pieces it gives Atalanta a more well-rounded trio. De Ketelaere has always rated well in his pressing, and Scamacca may be one of the most gifted strikers in Europe when it comes to technique on the ball. They should be much more present in the build-up offensive, taking a load of Lookman’s shoulders to carry every ball from the half way line into the penalty box. Both players already showed their worth against Sassuolo, and my guess is they’ll only further blossom into offensive stalwarts.
Players to Watch
Its lazy to say watch everyone, so let’s narrow it down to five players who’s play could sway Atalanta place in the standings.
One- Gianluca Scamacca
Let’s start with the obvious one. He’s the highest ever earner at Atalanta, and he eschewed the likes of Roma and Inter to play in the relative peace and quiet of Bergamo. He looks like he has a good head on his shoulders, and should have no problem fitting right in with the squad. The first thing that stands out to me with Scamacca is his size. His height was never in question, but the soon to be 25 year old definitely looks like he did some filling out during his time in London (and not bad filling out on fish and chips). He always seemed more lanky during his time at Sassuolo, but now he looks more immovable – approaching Zlatan territory (I only use this comparison because of their adeptness on the ball).
If my original hunch about his strength is correct, not only is he a perfect striker for Atalanta, but one most other teams in Italy would envy. I’m interested to see how is linkup play with Ademola Lookman turns out; they could be a fun combo once they get on the same page with each other.
Two- Sead Kolasinac
Stocky, a bit bow-legged, and a bit mad in the head – you’d think I was talking about Jose Luis Palomino! While both lefties have a lot in common, only one looks to already have cemented himself a starting job at left center back. The former Arsenal man’s methods are slightly ungraceful, but the results are undeniable. It looks like he has fun getting forward, and he’ll bring a sense of calm that can often go missing from Atalanta’s backline. Him and Giorgio Scalvini side-by-side could make for a brilliant pairing – regardless of who lines up as the right-centerback
Three- Juan Musso
Its redemption season for the Argentine. I’ve already given my explanation as to why I expect him to bounce back (article link), and he’ll have to come good for Atalanta in his third year. The goalkeeping job is an often unforgivable task in Bergamo, but there will definitely be at least one match this year that will come down to him come through with a key reaction save or not. I’m guessing he’s mentally in a more present space, and will be the acrobat we know he can be. A nice start in Sassuolo helps add encouragement to the cause!
Four- Davide Zappacosta
The signing of Mitchel Bakker requires the man with the head of a fifty year old but the legs of a twenty year old to focus on the right side. While Zappacosta is definitely capable of playing the inverted role, it feels like it should be easier for him to focus on one side of the pitch, and intensely focus on developing a strong partnership with Charles de Ketelaere.
The concern with DZ77 is always injuries. He hasn’t been healthy for a full season in Bergamo, but if he can stay healthy, he is Atalanta’s best wingback, giving the squad the best chance of scoring and/or assisting from the wing.
Five- Charles de Ketelaere
Hoping for success from the Belgian is twofold. Obviously if he performs well, Atalanta performs well by association. However, every goal he scores in black and blue add to the infinite math comparing his goal output in Bergamo versus Milan. He’s already scored infinite more goals as an Atalanta player than a Milan player, but anything to rub it into the rossoneri is icing on the cake.
Pettiness aside, he does feel like the perfect Atalanta player. Skilled on the ball, willing to press, and equally capable of scoring, he may never reach the heights of playmaking ability that Josip Ilicic possessed, but he’s the only one that could get the closest. The level of comfort when he gets on the ball is noticeable, and in the back of your mind you just know that he’s not going to do something stupid. Something you can’t say with Zapata, Muriel, or the now departed Jeremie Boga.
Wildcard- El Bilal Toure
What can we make of Atalanta’s record signing? He’s now injured and won’t feature in Bergamo until January. He’s not a true number 9, nor is he a true playmaking number 10, so in a way he perfectly fits the new attacking mold of multi-faceted forwards. Its a shame we must wait so long, but watching him swiftly glide across the pitch, or quickly making the right pass to continue the offense should have you excited. What he lacks in raw pace and tenacity, compared to Hojlund, he makes up for with offensive precision. The only problem for him is trying to pass Scamacca and de Ketelaere in the pecking order! But that’s one of them good problems to have!
What Does Success Look Like This Year?
Let’s state the obvious first, if Atalanta doesn’t at least make the Europa League again next year – the season can likely been seen as a failure.
The good thing for La Dea – they have multiple avenues in which to achieve European football next season. Obviously finishing top 6 is desired, but a Coppa Italia victory or an extremely deep run in the Europa League (or Conference League) opens up new options for Atalanta to continue in Europe in the autumn of 2024.
Still its a tough question to answer, because Atalanta is now teetering on the brink of Top 4 being an annual goal. We’re not ‘quite’ there, but the continued parity in the league makes it more likely for Atalanta to achieve a Top 4 finish. Napoli is probably the favorite again, but there are plenty of valid preseason table predictions for the Top 7 that one could not argue against in good faith.
So maybe its better to break it down into manageable pieces. In a recent article, I wrote that Atalanta has given up between 46 and 48 goals the last five years running. That’s with all the wild defensive lineups we’ve thrown out there from end-of-career Andrea Masiello to stud Cristian Romero. I don’t think it really matters who is at the back, Atalanta will always ship its fair share of goals, and a defense that is a little older and has only made one signing at defense (two if Hien comes) can improve on that tally. Now with that being said, if Atalanta allows 46 goals, that’ll probably be good for 6th or 7th in the league, so its not terrible.
But to offset that, it comes down to the offense. When Atalanta was truly humming the offense never scored less than 77 goals, peaking at 98 in one season! Then the Papu era came to a close, and Atalanta had to grind out goals just to survive. 65 and 66 goals the last two season is a decent total, but staying stuck in that rut does little to guarantee anything but a place no better than 5th. For Atalanta to overcome its do-or-die-doesn’t-matter-who’s-on-the-pitch defense that offense has to pick up the slack.
The good news, Atalanta’s attack finally looks revamped, and can truly start fresh outside the shadows of the Duvan, Papu, Ilicic triumvirate that terrorized Serie A. The team will ride and die with the offense, and CDK, Scamacca, and Lookman are all probably capable of 15 goals if everything goes right.
But is that enough for Atalanta to score a sufficient quantity of goals to offset the amount they’ll concede? The last two seasons the 4th place squad had a +20 goal differential (over +30 the two years before that!). So let’s be conservative and say Atalanta needs a +25 goal differential for 4th place, and if they concede 48 goals, they need to score 73.
Can they do that? Let’s count it out:
- Gianluca Scamacca – 15
- Ademola Lookman – 12
- Charles de Ketelaere – 10
- Toure – 5 (toughest one to guess)
- Zapata/Pasalic/Muriel combo – 8
- Koopmeiners – 7
- Ederson/de Roon/Adopo – 3
- Wingbacks – 5 (Zortea already has one)
- Defense – 5
- Total – 70 goals
Honestly, this feels reasonable. Maybe the Zapata group is too high, but then you could also argue that the defense will net more than five goals of scrummy corners and such. Still, no one really needs to overperform, and it will be up to one of the forwards to step up and net three more goals to get to 73. Entirely possible! Much more possible than last year when we were still relying on Zapata and Muriel for meaningful minutes. Frankly, I think we can do it!
So that’s it, the season in a nutshell! A victory against Sassuolo should have us pumped and riding high for another season in Europe. Thursday nights can still be fun! And hopefully a season that sees Atalanta pile in goals for fun and bring us back to the good times of pre-COVID scoring for fun football! The cast may be different but the objective is the same; let’s do it! As always, Forza Dea!
