Date: May 3, 2023
Time: 18:00 CET | 12:00 EST
Weather Report: 22 C , mostly sunny
A Quick Tale of the Tape
Atalanta – 7th | 55 points | +16 GD | +14.1 xGD | Top Scorer: Ademola Lookman (13 goals)
Spezia – 17th | 27 points | -25 GD | – 18.5 xGD | Top Scorer: M’Bala Nzola (13 goals)
Injury Report
Atalanta
Caleb Okoli (ankle)
Matteo Ruggeri (unknown muscle)
Brandon Soppy (stomache) [should be back]
Hans Hateboer (knee)
Lukas Vorlicky (knee)
Ademola Lookman (hip) [should be back]
Spezia
Joao Moutinho (knee)
Emil Holm (groin)
Szymon Zurkowski (adductor)
Julius Beck (foot)
Daniel Maldini (unknown muscle)
M’Bala Nzola (unknown injury)
Serie A midweek football returns for the first time since January, with Atalanta greeting Spezia for the third time this season. Its a leading question, but bonus points if you can guess who Atalanta played last time out for midweek Serie A… Obviously Spezia is the answer, but I won’t fault you for missing that, because you, dear reader, were probably trying to erase that debacle of a match from your memory bank.
After going down by two goals in ugly fashion to the Ligurian side on the brink of relegation, Atalanta was still somehow able to secure a draw. Remember, if it wasn’t for Ethan Ampadu being a smidge offside – erasing his goal – Atalanta doesn’t draw that match, and it may have kicked off a series of events that has Atalanta in a completely different place than it is today.
Granted, Atalanta’s position today isn’t the most ideal for a club looking to sneak into the top four, yet La Dea look to be chugging in the right direction after securing seven points against foes from the top half of the table. News alert, Spezia is not in the top half of the table. So this should be easy pickings for Atalanta, right?
Well… If we base Atalanta’s performance in the Coppa Italia against Spezia, then sure. But are we able to rely on an Atalanta team to confidently dictate tempo and put goals away? Atalanta has had less than 40% possession in its last three matches that earned seven points, so what happens when everything shifts and Atalanta is forced to attack? Do we get the Atalanta versus Lecce performance, or do we get the recent Dea that came out against Cremonese?
Nick’s Preferred Starting XI
Whether you like it or not, Mario Pasalic has to start. The Croat has scored six goals against Spezia, and his dagger in extra time earned Atalanta a point. Good luck or not, Pasalic makes his killing taking advantage of good spots that spotty defenses frequently leave open. Pasalic scoring a scrummy tap-in isn’t out of the question, and knowing how Atalanta’s offense can suddenly fall off a cliff, it may be the saving grace we need.
Picking who to join Pasalic up front remains a bit tricky. Duvan Zapata’s revival is noteworthy, but Gian Piero Gasperini has to consider load management with an important Juventus match upcoming on the weekend. Rotation is probably the name of the game, and I’d rather have Zapata come off the bench if need be, ensuring that Rasmus Hojlund and Jeremie Boga get goods minutes. Especially considering how effective Hojlund and Boga were against a spotty Spezia defense in the Coppa Italia. This is the type of game Atalanta may need Boga to solve for them.
At the back, it may be worthwhile to get some defenders rested. Merih Demiral has to be the freshest guy on the team, for all the wrong reasons, and should definitely be equipped to go the full 90 minutes. Elsewhere, Jose Luis Palomino has been surprisingly vital as an impact substitute, but its time to give the Argentine a full nod. Not saying I’m looking too far towards Juventus – but I’d prefer Giorgio Scalvini manning the left side of the defense against the frail and dainty Angel di Maria.
Atalanta Player to Watch – Berat Djimsiti
While my preferred starting XI has Berat Djimsiti on the sidelines, it has nothing to do with his performances as of late. The Albanian has filled in admirably as the center of the back three, and while he’s not in my prediction to start on Wednesday, the chance is still strong he’s in the XI. The good thing about Djimsiti in the back three is it normally gives Atalanta three strong passers out of the back. While Demiral may need the minutes, the ability to have strong passers at every position on the pitch could prove useful to beat down a potential low block.
Final Match Thoughts
The overarching theme in the forefront of my mind while writing this preview was minimize stress before the Juventus match. That’s obviously a dangerous game to play, because Spezia is more than capable of stealing points from Atalanta. Especially as a team firmly in a relegation scrap. Additionally, Spezia is somewhat of a draw specialist – splitting twelve matches this year. It may be difficult for Spezia to earn a full three points, but the Ligurian side can still ruin Atalanta’s afternoon by forcing both sides to walk away with one point.
M’Bala Nzola’s absence will be tough for Spezia to overcome, so the offensive duo of Emmanuel Gyasi and Eldor Shomurodov won’t strike too much fear into Atalanta’s defense. But guess who the only squad Gyasi has scored against this year is? You got it, good ‘ol Atalanta, with Rafael Toloi getting beat badly in the box. Without Nzola, Daniele Verde (3 goals) is the squad’s leader, so in reality Atalanta should be able to focus on its offensive buildup.
Which means that it’ll be up to the entire offensive machine to click. Not just the attack to work chances and take good shots, but everyone to be crisp with decision making, passing, and smart running. This has been tough for Atalanta in numerous instances throughout the year, especially in matches where Atalanta is expected to dominate possession. Plus, possession definitely does not correlate to points with Atalanta. In the six matches that Atalanta has had at least 60% possession this year, the boys have only garnered eight points – including two dropped points against Spezia.
Yet this is an Atalanta team that finally looks to be riding a good wave, and should be undeterred in a trap match. Zapata is finally coming into some form, Ederson has carved out his niche, the backline is less porous, and the build-up vibe feels much more comfortable with Marco Sportiello in net. I think the good wave keeps on riding into the weekend!
Score Prediction: Atalanta 2 – Spezia 1
As always, Forza Dea!
