Date: April 29, 2023
Time: 20:45 CET | 14:45 EST
Weather Report: 14 C, evening showers likely
A Quick Tale of the Tape
Torino: 11th | 42 points | -4 GD | -1.5 xGD | Top Scorer – Antonio Sanabria (9 goals)
Atalanta: 7th | 52 points | +15 GD | +13.9 xGD | Top Scorer – Ademola Lookman (13 goals)
Injury Report
Torino
David (ahhh) Zima: knee
Ola Aina: unknown muscle
Ronaldo Vieira: knee
Pietro Pellegri: hip
Atalanta
Caleb Okoli: ankle
Berat Djimsiti: unknown (status unknown)
Matteo Ruggeri: unknown muscle
Hans Hateboer: knee
Lukas Vorlicky: knee
Ademola Lookman: thigh
Can Captain Rafa Toloi continue to carry Atalanta to the promised land? After a convincing 3-1 victory against Roma on Monday night, La Dea’s road to European placements doesn’t get any easier against Aleksei Miranchuk’s Torino squad. Packed right in the middle of that 40 point cluster of squads, La Granata still give squads plenty to think about, but don’t quite pack the same aggressive punch as it did last year. Much of that has to do with Gleison Bremer moving crosstown, yet Torino still finds a way to get it done and has managed to allow the 6th fewest goals in the division.
Yet as stingy as its defense may be, the murky offensive performance has still prevented Ivan Juric’s team from taking a step up. Contributions from Nikola Vlasic and Aleksei Miranchuk have been admirable, but the Toro Trident of Vlasic, Miranchuk, and Antonio Sanabria haven’t been able to make up for the lack of offensive depth.
As it normally goes for Atalanta, it will be up to Gian Piero Gasperini’s boys to continue its offensive momentum from Monday. However, Torino hasn’t conceded more than 1 goal to any non Napoli squad in the last two months. So once again, as has been the theme recently, its on Atalanta to come up with the goods against challenging opponents.
Nick’s Preferred Starting XI
I’m not sure what it is, but everything feels calmer with Marco Sportiello between the posts. Sure he’s not the greatest of distributors, but it doesn’t take an awful lot to be better than Juan Musso. Torino will probably be busy pressing Atalanta deep, and with the keeper likely to be heavily involved in distribution, gimme Sporty.
Ederson’s been so good recently, he’s made himself unbenchable – essentially forcing Gasperini to plug in three midfielders. With Teun Koopmeiners, Marten de Roon, and Ederson all clogging the midfield, it leaves less space for attackers to stake their claim on the match.
Zapata has to start. But who follows alongside him? Mario Pasalic, goal aside, still made a lot of shaky and questionable plays on the pitch. Jeremie Boga remains an enigma, but feels like he will be used like a lightning rod off the bench. So that leaves Rasmus Hojlund, and it may be super interesting to see both strikers just run at Torino’s back three. Its a Juric-Gasperini match, so we already know its gonna be ugly. Then why not put pure strength and athleticism on the pitch to attack the Djidji-Schuurs-Rodriguez battery? Plus throwing Hojlund on gives Atalanta an extra body to put in a heavy press, and as we saw against Roma – Atalanta’s best offense still comes when the squad presses as a team, forcing teams into mistakes.
A part of me still wants to see Jeremie Boga come on and weave in and around Torino’s heavy press, but with Atalanta likely to be hoofing and running, Boga may not even get a chance to show his chops.
Atalanta Player to Watch – Duvan Zapata
Its probably my blind Colombian fandom clouding my view of the whole situation, but Zapata is a full-time starter again, right? He may not have the precision finishing or the neat footwork to work goals for himself inside the box anymore, but there’s no one on the squad (or in the league?) that can occupy as much space offensively. Sure a lot his space occupation would fizzle out due to bad technique or wild shots, but if Atalanta can be the battering ram that opens doors for Rasmus to sneak through, that could work.
After watching Zapata beat down Llorente on Monday, to the point where he pulled a hammie, he’s gotta be licking his lips about the prospects of not going up against Bremer but instead the debonair Ajax boy Perr Schuurs. I feel he has something special in store again on Saturday!
Final Thoughts for Saturday
According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Atalanta still, and somehow, has a 12% chance of earning a Champion’s League spot. Throw in whatever wackiness happens with Juventus this summer, and there’s still every reason to fight for a coveted top four spot. And there’s a lot of wildness in store this weekend in Serie A. Roma and Milan square off this weekend, and Inter plays Lazio.
In a perfect world the standings could look like this on Monday:
4. Milan – 57 points (draw Roma)
5. Roma – 57 points (draw Milan)
6. Atalanta – 55 points (victory over Torino)
7. Inter – 54 points (loss to Lazio)
Granted, that’s the dream scenario, but it would make the final games so spicy. And let’s not forget all of these teams still have priorities in European competition, and maybe Atalanta will final take advantage of having no European matches to consider in its player workload.
Still Atalanta has to get by a Torino side that comfortably bothered Lazio last week to a total of 10 weak shots. But as is normally the case in matches against Toro, Atalanta should confidently be able to press up high to create dangerous turnovers. As much as we all love Lesha, he’s not Rafael Leao, nor is Vlasic, and Scalvini and crew should be able to comfortably control their one-on-one match-ups (provided Caleb Okoli doesn’t play and Demba Seck doesn’t sneak into the match!).
But do we score? Last time out against Torino was the famous Teun Koopmeiners hattrick match, buoyed by two penalties. Atalanta has grinded these last few matches, and even after putting up three goals against Roma, it was on the end of 0.9 xG and an early Christmas present from Rui Patricio. Yet there were still a lot of positives offensively, and Atalanta could still mount a similar offensive performance, without having to worry about the antics and shiftiness of Lorenzo Pellegrini and Paolo Dybala.
My guess is we see more yellow cards than goals (so bold, I know) in this one, but the good guys have it in them to see out 3 points.
Prediction: Atalanta 3 – Torino 1
Until Saturday, folks, Forza Dea!
