Date: April 24, 2023
Time: 20:45 CET | 14:45 EST
Weather Report: 21 C hi | 9 C lo, morning showers
Quick Tale of the Tape
Atalanta: 7th | 49 points | +13 GD | +13.9 xGD | Top Scorer – Ademola Lookman (13 goals)
Roma: 4th | 56 points | +16 GD | +23.6 xGD | Top Scorer – Paolo Dybala (11 goals)
Injury Report
Atalanta
Ademola Lookman (hip)
Matteo Ruggeri (unknown)
Hans Hateboer (ACL)
Lukas Vorlicky (knee)
Mario Pasalic (ankle)
Roma
Chris Smalling (unknown)
Georginio Wijnaldum (unknown)
Rick Karsdorp (knee)
Thanks to Nige at Atalanta BC News for the assist with the injuries
If any of you were still holding out hope that Atalanta could somehow still squeeze into the Champion’s League, a positive result on Monday could give the believers that needed shot in the arm to keep fighting the good fight – however improbable the feat of making Champion’s League may be!
Atalanta take on a Roma squad in serious form- a squad that just punched its ticket to the semifinals of the Europa League, and one that also has quietly snuck into 4th in the table after earning three consecutive Serie A victories. The cocktail of offensive threats that Roma can throw at a defense is impressive, especially when that offense is bolstered by a normally strong Jose Mourinho defense. Putting all the pieces together, and Roma has the third best expected goal differential in the league. That 4th place in the league is finally starting to replicate the good form they had shown all year.
And Atalanta’s fans know that firsthand! La Dea snuck out of Rome with three points in the most improbable of fashions. La Dea’s 1-0 victory thanks to Giorgio Scalvini’s goal was the most lopsided victory of the season for Atalanta (lopsided favoring the opposition that is). Given the form of both opponents, if Atalanta had any more luck reserved for this season, Monday night would be a good opportunity to break it out.
Nick’s Preferred Starting Lineup
While its highly improbable that Gasperini shells out a back four lineup, I’ll keep asking for it! Ademola Lookman’s injury makes it a bit more unlikely that Atalanta plays three up front, but at this point – who gives Atalanta a better chance to win this match: Jeremie Boga up front or Berat Djimsiti at the back?
Different tactics, different formations, blah blah blah – Atalanta’s at a point in the season in which it needs to put its best players on the pitch. European football is in jeopardy again for next year, and every game Atalanta tries to hold onto its position rather than seize it, it makes it more improbable that 6th or 7th place is a possibility.
Fiorentina match hero Marco Sportiello deserves another start between the pipes. Its crazy that he leaves on a free this summer when he does most things as good as (or even better) than Juan Musso. Its nice having a keeper who doesn’t make you hold your breath every time a center back executes a back pass.
Atalanta Player to Watch – Teun Koopmeiners
In Gian Piero Gasperini’s master second half plan against Fiorentina, the Dutch wizard spent more time by the right corner flag than he did in the middle of the pitch. Whether that was a complementary piece to Atalanta’s hoofball or not, La Dea’s number 7 needs to be operating where he does best centrally. To put it another way, would Mourinho ever have Paolo Dybala playing two touch around the corner flag?
Its highly likely that Jeremie Boga comes off the bench, leaving Atalanta without a ball carrying option up front. It’ll come down to Koopmeiners (and Ederson to a smaller degree) to ignite the offense through the middle and take advantage of a Roma back three that may be without its center rock, Chris Smalling.
My Overall Thoughts
Roma currently sits 7 points ahead of Atalanta. A victory at the Gewiss actually puts Atalanta in a pretty desirable position against the Giallorossi. Obviously being ahead in the standings is most desirable, but a 4 point separation, with Atalanta owning the tiebreaker, puts a lot of pressure on a Roma squad down the stretch. Especially a squad like Roma that is likely going all in to win the Europa League. Roma’s subsequent matches against Milan, Monza, Inter, and Bologna will help to paint a decisive picture on how the calendar finishes off.
Unfortunately, beating Roma is easier said than done. We’re a far cry from the squad that put four second half goals past a Roma side that was blessed with left foot of peak Josip Ilicic. Atalanta’s offense has not shown any semblance of a unified and competent attack since the Lazio match, and little suggests that anything will change against Roma.
Watching the Fiorentina 2nd half on Monday, it really struck me hard that how a team with so much apparent offensive firepower resorts so frequently to hoofing it up the pitch and praying for a lucky bounce. Even though that lucky bounce almost did happen when Duvan Zapata snuck around Luis Martinez Quarta and then easily fell down, that’s not a way to manufacture offense – even if you’re trying to hold onto a point in the waning minutes. That game was still there for the taking, evidenced by the breakaway that Boga should have just taken himself in the final minute.
All that is to say, do we really expect Atalanta to do anything different against a defense that is better? Sure Atalanta is at home, and Mourinho may let Gasperini hold more of the ball, but the outcome should still trend in the same direction. The squad has done little the last two months to encourage us that it is due for a breakout against a legitimate opponent.
Still Roma just played 120 minutes on Thursday, and that’s a lot of football to play and then come out on short rest halfway across Italy. With Paolo Dybala able to feature against Atalanta (unlike last time), Roma will have a more consistent player at the forefront of its attack, and one that is unlikely to miss a chance given to him by Atalanta’s cardiac defense. Roma may shuffle the lineup, but the team is deep, and the likes of Dybala and Tammy Abraham didn’t play the full match against Feyenoord on Thursday. They should be rested.
Until Atalanta demonstrates some offensive consistency, its hard to see how the boys dismantle a strong opponent riding high on good form right now. I hope I’m wrong, but we need to see something different.
Prediction: Atalanta 1 – Roma 3
Regardless of the score prediction, as always, Forza Dea!
