Date: April 8, 2023
Time: 16:30 CET | 10:30 EST
Weather Report: 16 degrees C | mostly sunny, no foul weather to blame, no sun in Musso’s eyes to blame!
Quick Tale of the Tape
Atalanta: 6th | 48 points | +15 GD | +15.3 xGD | Top scorer: Ademola Lookman (13 goals)
Bologna: 8th | 40 points | 0 GD | -5.2 xGD | Top scorer: Marko Arnautovic (8 goals)
Injury and Suspension Report
Atalanta
Berat Djimsiti (hamstring)
Teun Koopmeiners (hip)
Hans Hateboer (knee)
Rafael Toloi (suspension)
Bologna
Andrea Cambiaso (undisclosed muscle)
Marko Arnautovic (foot)
Ham, hard boiled eggs, and horse radish are all on play for Easter dinner this Sunday; but let’s also hope that Atalanta adds some bologna onto that menu for us this weekend! Atalanta’s January victory against Bologna was Jeremie Boga’s coming out party, and La Dea will need him and all his attacking trident mates to be on top form. Thiago Motta has developed himself quite the well rounded squad, while not elite in any one area, is strong up and down the pitch. A Riccardo Orsolini led attack, and a defense marshalled by now captain (and one of my Colombian favorites) Jhon Lucumi has Bologna sitting within spitting distance of a potential Conference League placement.
Only two squads have scored at least two goals against Bologna in 2023, Salernitana and our very own Atalanta. Knowing this, and Atalanta’s mighty struggle to put up goals for extended periods against mediocre defenses, Gian Piero Gasperini would be crazy to play anyone else than the trident. Unfortunately knowing Gasperini, he would be enough of a madman to play Duvan Zapata, Luis Muriel, and Mario Pasalic up front again!
Atalanta can’t rely on Marten de Roon to score the first goal for Atalanta in three consecutive matches!
Nick’s Preferred Starting Lineup
With Rafael Toloi out through suspension, Gasperini has to go with Merih Demiral right? I think Berat Djimsiti is still sidelined with a knock, and Caleb Okoli hasn’t played since November – so its Demiral or a back four. A Bologna attack without Arnautovic will leave Demiral without a dance partner, but the cutting and swaying of Musa Barrow and Riccardo Orsolini will still give the Turk plenty to be vigilant about.
Also, I think we gotta give a shout out to Matteo Ruggeri. I was ready to throw him out with the trash a few months back, but he has really stepped up to become a reliable option on the left. He certainly has the level to positively play against the league’s lower level squads, so putting in a strong performance against Bologna would be a nice step up to see if we have a wing back for all seasons. Certainly being paired with Jeremie Boga helps, but with Ruggeri’s crosses and Boga’s cut – there’s plenty of opportunity to make the left wing a formidable attacking locale. Ruggeri’s crosses are what Atalanta probably wanted from Stuttgart’s Borna Sosa – just without the 20M price tag. Not saying Ruggeri is Sosa’s level, but if he’s Sosa lite at 5% of the price, I think we take that.
If one of the three trident do not play, who should take his place? Duvan Zapata has been the only one of quality out of him, Muriel, and Pasalic; but does Gasperini play both Zapata and Hojlund together? I doubt it, and I guess I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lookman, Hojlund, and Pasalic line up together to start the match.
My Overall Thoughts
Frankly this game has me a bit nervous. Bologna doesn’t hurt itself when it plays, and they’ve done well against the top teams in the league. Victories against Inter and Fiorentina, and drawing against Lazio demonstrate that Motta’s boys won’t crumble against strong lineups and different styles of play. Don’t blink, but if Bologna is able to pick up all three points, that makes only a five point gap between La Dea and Bologna in the table.
Even Atalanta’s earlier victory this season wasn’t too convincing, requiring a thunderbolt from Teun Koopmeiners to help get Atalanta on track. La Dea will have to work the ball far more exquisitely through the box than it had recently done. Getting past Lucumi and Adama Soumaoro isn’t easy… (boy, I wonder how nice Lucumi would look on the left side of Atalanta’s back three!)
Still Atalanta should have enough offensive firepower if Atalanta’s best attack is on the pitch together. For as pesky as Gary Medel can be (who I envision to be in the midfield to stymie Dea’s attack), Bologna’s attack shouldn’t cause Atalanta significant issues. Orsolini and Barrow can be dynamite but they’re so inconsistent, and without Arnautovic in the middle to act as a target man, it will require a lot from Bologna to conjure offense through the counter attack. Stefan Posch can certainly be a danger man, so hopefully Ruggeri and Palomino are accompanied by Marten de Roon on the left to help shepherd the duo that can excitedly get out of place sometimes.
Atalanta hasn’t scored before the 40th minute since the Lazio match, and that is what Atalanta will need to do to ensure the Bologna vice grip defense doesn’t tighten even more at the back. Fortunately, I think the boys have it in them. Lookman, Boga, and Hojlund have put in three goals combined in less than a match of action the last two games. Now let’s see them on the pitch together for a full 90, and I’m confident the shots will flow!
Prediction: Atalanta 2 – Bologna 1
And as always, Forza Dea!
