Date: February 26, 2023
Time: 20:45 CET | 14:45 EST
A Quick Tale of the Tape
Milan: 4th | 44 points | +11 GD | +9.7 xGD | Last Five: 6 points (2W, 0D, 3L)
Atalanta: 6th | 41 points | +16 GD | +13.6 xGD | Last Five: 7 points (2W, 1D, 2L)
The Champion’s League Gods take it as quickly as they give it. Atalanta is now on the outside looking in, sitting in 6th place, three points outside the Champion’s League places. Atalanta’s next opponent? Conveniently the one team that it needs to dethrone in order to claw back into the vaunted top four, Milan. Its not too crazy to call this one of the most important matches of the season. At least one point is essential. A loss drops Atalanta six points behind its Lombardian rival, losing the season’s tiebreaker in the process.
But Atalanta is playing on the road, so it should be an easy win, right?! Only if it were that easy. As disastrous as Milan was in January, when it looked like the club was in freefall, three consecutive victories (all 1-0 clean sheets) in February has Stefano Pioli’s club neatly riding the ship until its offense can turn around.
With Rafael Leao all things are possible, and his singular brilliance can mask a lot of problems on any team. Combine a sturdier back three defense, Theo Hernandez antics, Rafael Leao magic, and clutch Olivier Giroud – Milan will never be out of a game. But can Atalanta generate enough offense to penetrate Milan’s new defensive backline?
Nick’s Predicted Starting XI
Rasmus Hojlund can probably beat nearly every Serie A defenseman in a foot race. Two that may give him trouble are Pierre Kalulu and Fikayo Tomori. As staples of Milan’s backline, it will be interesting to see how the Dane is deployed against a faster than normal defense. This isn’t Hojlund having to outhustle Federico Fazio or Patric. This will be a match that determines how Hojlund can handle a backline that’s primary attribute isn’t strength. Fortunately Hojlund isn’t a one-trick-pony, and it will be on him to use his strength and technique to his advantage – as well as his smarts to link up with his follow goal scorer currently on a mini scoring drought, Ademola Lookman.
How nice is it to predict Marten de Roon back in the starting XI? He was absent for Lecce thanks to a bogus yellow card earned against Lazio, but knowing him, he would have gotten a yellow card against Lecce, had he played, and then missed this one. So I guess we’ll say we’re taking two in the bush? Hopefully, but having de Roon in the lineup certainly erases question marks about who can win the midfield. Milan is equally thin as Atalanta at midfield right now, and without a tidy ball controller in Ismael Bennacer to control tempo, Atalanta needs to press like crazy against the energetic Rade Krunic/Sandro Tonali pairing. Just how Atalanta was able to silence the Lazio midfield trio, a frantic Marten de Roon and Ederson need to be up to the task to do the same against a less technical pairing. Press the midfield hard – and hit with fury on the break.
While the question that most teams ponder when facing Milan is “who will mark Rafael Leao,” an important secondary question is who keeps Olivier Giroud away from the danger zone. His eleven goals this season have bailed Milan out of some precarious situations, including second half winners against Torino and Spezia. Normally Merih Demiral would be all over this matchup, and the Turk should still be the first choice. No one else on Atalanta’s roster could do a better job muscling him outside of the penalty box he roams so effectively. Jose Palomino could probably slow him down, Berat Djimsiti couldn’t, so Atalantini have to hope that Demiral is back in focus after his poor showing against Lecce.
Atalanta’s Key Player- Teun Koopmeiners
We don’t frequently say that Teun Koopmeiners had a poor game, but last week was one of his more forgettable performances since his time started in Bergamo. Maybe he just missed his Dutch friend in the midfield, but he has to be on point against a Milan side that will look to keep him off the ball.
Against Lecce, Koopmeiners attempted 89 passes, his second most all season, while completing only 64 of them (72% success rating). On a quick surface look, this screams of a player trying to force the situation, and trying to put too much of the burden onto his shoulders. Opposite of the Lazio game, he was much calmer throughout the match, playing off his teammates, and was far more calculating in how he went to dissect the defense. We’ll need more of Lazio-match Koopmeiners, and squaring off against a double pivot midfield may help to give him a bit more breathing room. Although Milan is dogged in the press, so the combination of dissecting the press and exploiting the open holes left by the press could springboard him and his teammates forward.
The season is 60% of the way over, and there’s no more mulligans any more. Atalanta is paying for its sins with dropped points against the likes of Lecce (x2), Sassuolo, and Spezia. Now Sunday’s match becomes one in which Atalanta cannot afford to let Milan win. It would essentially give the Rossoneri a 7 point cushion in the table, with a great chance of La Dea also losing ground to Roma and Lazio playing against relegation cupcakes this week.
Must win may be too dramatic a statement, but there hasn’t been a match yet this season that Atalanta’s opponent cannot win. Fortunately the players and coaching staff alike can read the table like (and better than) me, and can probably draw the same conclusion. But we know Atalanta has recently lived for the big moments, and nothing is bigger than duking it out at San Siro, after the sun goes down, and in front of 70,000 fans. Atalanta has earned points in all but one of it’s eight 20:45 Serie A kickoffs this year, let’s go out Sunday and make that eight out of nine! And as always, Forza Dea!
