Date: February 19, 2023
Time: 12:30 CET | 6:30 CET
A Quick Tale of the Tape
Atalanta: 3rd | 41 points | +17 GD | +12.5 xGD | Last Five: 10 points: (3W, 1D, 1L) | Top Scorer: Ademola Lookman (12 goals)
Lecce: 13th | 24 points | -3 GD | -6.4 xGD | Last Five: 5 points (1W, 2 D, 2 L) | Gabriel Strefezza (7 goals)
After a week to reflect on a thrilling match that thrusted Atalanta back into the Champion’s League places, Sunday brings on a different – not easier than Lazio – test against Lecce. Lest anyone forgot how the first fixture went between these two sides, Atalanta was poor. Even if you give Gian Piero Gasperini the benefit of the doubt and blame midweek cross-country travel to the furthest Serie A city from Bergamo, Atalanta should have taken at least something against the newly promoted side.
While Atalanta looks to right the wrongs of the first match, La Dea cannot underestimate a Lecce side that has been plucky and vibrant all year. A stingy defense that has only permitted 25 goals (Atalanta has permitted 24) is the backbone of a Lecce team that looks like it can comfortably secure another season in Serie A for next year. And with a motley cast of characters that includes squad top-scorer Gabriel Strefezza, the Danish de Roon in Morten Hjulmand, and everyone’s favorite farmer turned body-builder turned footballer Federico Baschirotto – it is difficult to not root for this squad. And now with Samuel Umititi risen from the dead in southern Italy’s warm waters, the squad is not a push-over and presents challenges to all that cross it.
Recent draws against Milan and Roma, as well as a victory against Lazio at the beginning of January highlights what this team can do when it is clicking. Of course the positives also have negatives sprinkled in with it – highlighted by 2023 losses to Salernitana and Hellas Verona. But so is the life of a midtable squad- you expect the ups and the downs.
But the onus will always be on Atalanta in this one to ensure that it can mold this game in its own favor. Lecce doesn’t concede (no team has scored three goals this season), and it always gives itself to secure point. Interestingly enough, Atalanta’s attack may be put more to the challenge this weekend than it was against Lazio. Expectations will naturally be higher, but the quality of the defense isn’t too far off from Lazio either. Making this a game for….
Nick’s Predicted Starting XI
A bit puzzling at the time maybe, but Atalanta did not use the trident against Lazio. It worked to great effect, as Ederson’s pristine performance helped Atalanta to dominate Lazio’s midfield, while still offering good support in attack. With Marten de Roon (and Giorgio Scalvini) out through suspension, Atalanta won’t have that same luxury this weekend, making the natural trident the best option almost by default.
Even if it wasn’t by default, Gasperini would have had to be questioned if he did not start with Jeremie Boga, Rasmus Hojlund, and Ademola Lookman. Lecce’s tepid offense doesn’t require the extra midfield body, and the likely low block that it will establish would be better to attack with the most of creative players.
The only other area of debate in the starting XI arises from the wingbacks. After undergoing ACL surgery, Hans Hateboer is sadly out for the rest of the season. Fortunately in the nick of time Davide Zappacosta returned to provide key depth on both flanks. The question then becomes, who does he pair with? Joakim Maehle seems the obvious choice, and normally I would choose the Dane. However, I’m opting for Matteo Ruggeri, given that Maehle MAY still be in the dog house after his Sassuolo straight red card and the recent momentum that surfaced around Ruggeri renewing his contract until 2027. Ruggeri didn’t flash well against Lecce in the first match-up, but having support from Teun Koopmeiners and Jeremie Boga on the left should make his possession based job a lot easier.
Atalanta Player to Watch – Ademola Lookman
Sure one of Atalanta’s best players is certainly someone to watch every match, but the onus will strongly be on him and the attack to ensure that Lecce doesn’t get too comfortable on defense. Lookman has obviously come up with the goods against big teams this year (Juventus brace, converted penalties against Napoli and Inter), but can he be relied on to score those niggly goals that have plagued Atalanta in season’s past? Impressive goals against Empoli and Sampdoria demonstrate that he can score when the attacking third of the pitch may be a bit more congested than usual. Ultimately, it will come down to his usual impressive finishing to convert the potential minimal chances he gets.
Roma may have dominated possession last week against Lecce – 58% clip. But Jose Mourinho’s side was only able to have that translate to 11 shots. If its slim pickings again thanks to Lecce’s good defense, Lookman’s importance is only elevated. And its also the reason why having Boga on the pitch is so important, leaving Lookman to not have his primary focus be on offensive creation.
Amazingly an Atalanta win and an Inter loss could have La Dea flying into second place in the table. Its obviously foolish to put too much credence into such a random stat drop, but to echo Musso’s sentiment from his interviews this week: Atalanta is prepared to duke it out the boys from the metros.
Plus, the schedule quickly gets real after this week’s encounter. Upcoming matches against Napoli, Udinese, and Milan – while not only having huge implications on the Champion’s League stage, will do a lot to confirm if Atalanta’s staying power for the rest of the season is for real. Undoubtedly the emergence of Lookman and Hojlund (among others) has already established Atalanta’s staying power, but being able to take it to the bigger opponents in the league puts it out on broadcast for the rest of the league to see. Lazio was step 1. Let’s not regress to step naught point five before taking on the big fixture challenges ahead; it’s time to go out and finish against Lecce! As always, Forza Dea!
