Date: February 11, 2023
Time: 20:45 CET | 14:45 EST
A Quick Tale of the Tape
Lazio: 4th | 39 points | +20 GD | +4.4 xGD | Top Scorer – Mattia Zaccagni (8 goals)
Atalanta: 5th | 38 points | +15 GD | +10.4 xGD | Top Scorer – Ademola Lookman (12 goals)
Huge Champion’s League implications are on the line this weekend. With many of Atalanta’s competition taking on ‘less than stellar’ competition, it becomes vital that Atalanta travels down to the capital focused and ready to face off against a strong Lazio squad. Lazio may not have won since its historic drubbing of Milan three weeks ago, but we cannot forget that this is a side that threw cold water on Atalanta’s early season ascent up the table – stymieing La Dea 0-2 at the Gewiss Stadium.
Keeping up with the trend of connecting more with the Calcio community in 2023, I’m dishing out another assist this week. Joining me to discuss Lazio is Nick Dianni – a die hard Laziale, but also one known to cheer for our beloved Dea. Never one to shy away from taking the over on Atalanta goal bets, his great work on the Kicks and Picks Podcast, is a great source of handicapping information for Serie A and other European leagues. While we’re focusing on Atalanta and Lazio today, please go give his excellent work a read and a listen!
Atalanta Passione: Despite a draw against Hellas Verona on Monday, it has been another strong campaign for Lazio in its second season under Maurizio Sarri. What has gone well for Lazio this season that has it again fighting for Champion’s League placement?
Nick Dianni: I think, unfortunately, you’re being a bit generous to Lazio here. More of a puzzling campaign for Lazio than a strong one. Wins against the teams around them – Milan, Inter, Roma and Atalanta last time out, but dropping points to Sampdoria, Udinese, Lecce, Empoli, Fiorentina etc. I’d say we’re the beneficiary of no team being great or having much consistency, outside of Napoli. What has worked well is the midfield. SMS (Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, for those living under a rock), while no longer at his peak, can always be relied upon. [Danilo] Cataldi has taken huge steps forward under Sarri. Luis Alberto looks like a man reborn since he came back into the lineup. This has been Lazio’s main strength so far.
AP: With Jeremie Boga’s recent resurgence it has added new life into Atalanta’s attack. When he puzzingly didn’t start last week against Sassuolo, it had many Atalantini critical of Gian Piero Gasperini for not consistently choosing his best XI. Lazio came up as an example of a squad that will start its best XI – bar: injury, suspension, or match fatigue. Is this a fair statement? Has the squad performed so well given the certainty of who will take the pitch as starters each week?
ND: Absolutely fair – Sarri has to be the most stubborn coach around. He will not change his tactics, formation, and for the most part squad under any circumstances. I hope I speak for most Laziali when I say most of the blame has to go to Lotito and Tare [ownership and management]. They have refused to properly invest in the squad (as seen with a lack of backup to Immobile), and it’s maybe forcing Sarri’s hand a bit more than usual. He doesn’t trust the current bench players, so we all have to hope the starting 11 play to their potential. Fatigue is starting to play a big factor, and we saw it hurt us vs. Verona. They’ve run the most kilometers of any team in Serie A to date.
AP: Which player has taken a step forward for Lazio that general Serie A fans may not have noticed? On the flip side has anyone underwhelmed?
ND: I mentioned Cataldi above. Doesn’t show up in the stat sheet, but he’s been a rock covering for more of the creative players. Lazzari has been great converting from a winger to a wing back. Provadel was a player I wasn’t all that familiar with before he came, but he took his opportunity after Maximiano’s red in the first minute of the season and hasn’t looked back. The three most disappointing players have to be Marcos Antonio, Toma Basic and Matteo Cancellieri. They were some of the first guys off of the bench early on in the season but non have made any impression whatsoever. Now I can’t even remember the last time any of them saw the field outside of maybe the Coppa Italia.
AP: Calcio Twitter knows your affinity for taking the over on many Atalanta team goal bets (sorry about last week!), so we know you’re obviously a fan of La Dea’s attack. Is there a specific player that worries you; one that Lazio needs to game plan around in order to stop the attack?
ND: Appreciate the kind words! Atalanta have been a money-making machine over the last few seasons, due to offense and defense, but not enough can be said about what Ademola Lookman is doing. Not sure how you all felt, but the signing didn’t raise any eyebrows with rival fans – seemed almost a journeyman career was a lock. He has been outstanding, and for a Lazio team that has struggled to put 90 minutes together, he’s going to be a problem. Another guy that always seems to be a threat is Teun Koopmeiners. Hoping SMS can neutralize him a bit.
AP: Who starts for Lazio? Any suspensions that could impact the starting lineup?
ND: Haven’t seen any projected lineups yet, but would have to imagine we see the same ole 4-3-3 with Mattia Zaccagni, Ciro Immobile and Pedro up front. Ciro has not looked good since coming back from injury, so expect to see Felipe Anderson at some point. The only question marks will be at the wingback positions depending on Lazzari’s fitness or trying to integrate Luca Pellegrini into the squad.
AP: And finally, a score prediction? Also, any bets that intrigue in this match?
ND: You guys know me! I think in a game like this, we can expect goals. I’m taking the over 2.5 goals (-125). Both teams have been go-to over teams for us over the years, and I truly believe it will take 2 goals from someone to win this game. Last matchup’s 1-0 was an anomoly. 2-1 for either side seems about right. I think Atalanta have the stronger, deeper, more in-form side, but Lazio seem to perform well in this fixture. Hoping for a fun one for all of us!
Thanks again to Nick for taking the time to share his thoughts in what should be, as it normally is, an exciting and thrilling contest. I’m all for Atalanta over 1.5 goal bets, so like the rest of Bergamo, I’ll be hoping that bet hits (while throwing in a few more goals for good measure!). Until Saturday, Forza Dea!
