Here’s a fun fact. Of the eight Atalanta players who scored at least two goals last season, only two have been able to repeat that feat at the halfway point in this season. Teun Koopmeiners of course continues to be Teun Koopmeiners, and Mario Pasalic has barely scraped by with the two goals he’s netted so far this season. The other six, well… Everyone knows what’s happened to the Colombians this season, Josip Ilicic, Ruslan Malinovskyi, and Aleksei Miranchuk have all charted different paths outside of Bergamo, and it would be foolish to expect Marten de Roon to become a volume goal scorer at any time in his career.
But the situation is far from dire! In fact, there hasn’t been a more fun time to be an Atalanta fan since a mysterious Argentinian #10 left for the Spanish desert. You don’t need me to spell out how the emergence Ademola Lookman and Rasmus Hojlund has brought new life to Atalanta’s offense. But I’ll do it anyway; while hopefully demonstrating how the squad’s finishing and chance creation has taken a serious step forward with necessary offensive infusion into the squad.
Many things went wrong for Atalanta’s offense last year. It is painful to rehash those old memories – but it is necessary to do so just to see how far the offense has progressed in eight months. You may or may not remember me harping about Atalanta’s woeful ratio of its expected goals (xG) to expected goals post-shot (PSxG), how it was the worst in the league, and perfectly demonstrated how Atalanta scored 10 less goals than it should have (don’t worry, I’ll do it again below!). Its important to remember how poor Atalanta was last season, because it helps to paint a picture that is much rosier 19 games after that flabbergasting Empoli match to end last season.
First, life doesn’t purely revolve around a striker’s aptitude or ineptitude at finishing his chances. The chance created itself, or the players supplying the great chances for strikers to pounce on is equally or maybe even more important than the end result. If strikers are forced to weave shots through narrow openings night after night, it doesn’t matter how lethal the finisher is if a majority of his strikes are blocked or taken from poor angles at distance.
Unsurprisingly, Atalanta has gotten better at chance creation too! Take a look at how Atalanta compares versus the league year over year.
Last season, Atalanta’s chances were good, and still above average compared to the average league chance. But then look at the improvement this season. Interestingly it has been more difficult to score so far this year, but Atalanta has suffered far less than the average Serie A team in creating good chances. 14% better than league average is an enviable position to be in, good for 4th in the league behind Roma, Inter, and Lazio.
Its difficult to pinpoint exactly what the change has been to improve Atalanta’s chance quality. Like most things in life, it is likely a combination of many different factors. First and foremost is the injection of life Ademola Lookman and Rasmus Hojlund have brought to the offense. Lookman’s movement and closing speed, combined with Hojlund’s strength and speed has been a game changer – and this no longer feels like an offense that is trying to chisel away at steel with a cheap set of tool you pick up at the hardware store. Attacks have become direct, done with pace, and take advantage of compromising positions for defense. Note that this has almost been exclusively done before Jeremie Boga’s recent revival. He just may be a missing piece that can take everything into overdrive.
For doubly good fun, not only has Atalanta’s chance creation improved, but the end result has also been markedly better. I can’t recall the numbers of times I discussed Atalanta’s poor ratio of PSxG/xG – with a figure hovering around 0.77 being one of the worst in the league last year. Since then its been a remarkable reversal. The squad has done a near 180 turn, averaging nearly one post shot expected goal for every expected goal. Sadly there’s not a free way for me to compile this data (unless I want to comb through hundreds of match reports across the league). But I’ll bring this chart back from the summer time:
The data above rates every team from the past four years on its finishing clinicality (for lack of a better term). Lazio has been the gold standard as of late, and recent iterations of Atalanta also have unsurprisingly rated very well. Of course the eyesore that was last season is also there as one of the worst finishing seasons on record.
For reference, this season would put Atalanta right in line with 15th placed Sassuolo, serious improvement year over year!
If we then take a look at some individual performers, the impressive finishing witnessed by Atalanta’s volume goal scorers confirms how the team’s overall performance.
As impressive as Lookman and Hojlund’s ratios are, what stands out more is the chances they are getting to score. Both xG/shot for the strikers is far beyond the league average, making it a whole lot easier to not whiff on chances when trying to find the net. Thus it has been a perfect culmination of improved chance creation, combined with better finishing that has made Atalanta’s offense relevant once again.
Given its only halfway through the season it is difficult to ascertain whether this is Atalanta’s true offensive level, or is there more in tank, or is the squad even overperforming? Its an interesting question, that probably cannot truly be answered until the season is nearly over, and then the data can only be relevant to mold next year’s squad. However, we can still take comfort in knowing that Atalanta has done something right with its recruitment class this year, and the true talent of this new offense will definitely be better than anything Gasperini put on the pitch last year. For our sake, let’s hope there’s more room in the engine, and the second half of the current season continues to be goals galore! As always, Forza Dea!
