Date: January 22, 2023
Time: 20:45 CET | 14:45 EST
A Quick Tale of the Tape
Juventus: 3rd | 37 points | +15 GD | +5.6 xGD | Top Scorer: Dusan Vlahovic – 6 goals
Atalanta: 6th | 34 points | +14 GD | 11.1 xGD | Top Scorer: Ademola Lookman – 9 goals
Sunday marks the halfway point of the season for Serie A, and what a way to seal up the wild ride that has been the first part of the Serie A saga than an away trip to Juventus. Call Massimiliano Allegri whatever you want; a genius, a terrorist, a stubborn mule – it is undeniable that he still has a few tricks up his sleeves to keep Juventus relevant in the Scudetto race.
Once thought dead in the water, Juventus surprised everyone by stringing off eight consecutive Serie A victories (all cleansheets), before succumbing last week to Napoli. Now third in the division, Juventus’s ever-present location at the top of the table has been reinforced. There’s never an easy walk into Turin, as much as we want to think there is, and it will be up to Atalanta to deconstruct one of Italy’s once-again stingiest defenses.
Almost anti-Allegri, the stingy defense that has led Juventus to massive success is Italy’s favorite setup- the back three. The results are undeniable, with the obvious eight cleansheets, but even the expected defensive numbers confirm that Juventus has not been blessed with just good fortune:
- Torino: 0.6 xG
- Empoli: 0.7 xG
- Lecce: 0.2 xG
- Inter: 1.2 xG
- Hellas Verona: 1.2 xG
- Lazio: 0.4 xG
- Cremonese: 0.8 xG
- Udinese: 0.5 xG
That’s a total of 5.6 xG over its eight game winning streak. Done with a defensive line cobbled together by Bremer, makeshift centerbacks: Alex Sandro and Daniolo, and afterthoughts Federico Gatti and Daniele Rugani, the discipline and leadership principally displayed by Danilo has done wonders to lead Juventus to the best defense in the league (12 goals conceded).
While the accolades justifiably should go to the defense, the true danger for Atalanta will be solving an offense that is growing healthier by the week. Both Dusan Vlahovic and Paul Pobga have resumed full training with the first team and could feature in some capacity. But the most dangerous and dynamic member of Juventus’s lineup will cause Atalanta the most fits – Federico Chiesa.
The young Italian winger is fully back after a gruesome ACL tear, and he confirmed his place in Juventus’s starting plans with a wonder strike to help the Old Lady advance in the Coppa Italia against Monza. Normally one player wouldn’t cause such a stir when it comes to Atalanta’s preparation. However, with Atalanta’s recent shift in attacking mindset – will more open flanks leave room for Chiesa to bomb forward and wreak havoc on Atalanta’s slightly fragile backline?
Regardless of where Chiesa plays, even if it is a makeshift wingback, there’s no one on Atalanta with direct straight line pace to keep up with the Italian. Assuming he plays right wing back like he did against Napoli – yes it sounds weird calling him a wingback – can either of Joakim Maehle or Matteo Ruggeri provide reasonable support defensively? Doubtful, but this is the risk Atalanta will have to take.
Speaking of how Atalanta takes that risk…
Nick’s Preferred Starting XI
So how does Atalanta neutralize Federico Chiesa? Force him to play defense. Pin him back so far that even when he collects the ball, he does so in areas that are seemingly innocuous to create offense. Hence the insertion of Matteo Ruggeri. He may not be the fleetest of foot, but two things he offers that no one other wingbacks do effectively – he provides width on the left and he’s clean in possession. The Ruggeri and Boga combination gives Atalanta the best chance to pin Juventus deep in its zone, and if the ball gets lost, its hopefully while everyone is hugging the touchline, with the touchline acting as a source of fast break defense for Atalanta.
Elsewhere on the pitch there may be a lot of room for roster scrambling. Teun Koopmeiners is sadly going to be missed, making this a make or break game for Ederson in the middle. Injury news regarding Giorgio Scalvini – who picked up a knock in the Coppa Italia – has been hazy, and he may be unable to feature. And on the right wing, we all want to see a change of pace, and someone other than Gasperini’s sidekick Hans Hateboer. While I opted for Brandon Soppy in my preferred lineup, I think we all know who is going to feature on Sunday.
Offensively, is there any reason not to start the trio of Jeremie Boga, Rasmus Hojlund, and Ademola Lookman? The trio has scored seven goals in the last two matches, and has to be given every opportunity to see how it fares against the best defense in the league. Don’t forget that Jeremie Boga, while he didn’t score, had one of the best games of his Atalanta career against Juventus last season. He ran rampant on the left, and he should be able to do again – especially if Chiesa is playing at wingback.
Atalanta Player to Watch – Ederson
The Brazilian will have to be thrust into the starting lineup thanks to Teun Koopmeiners’s suspension. He was shaping into some nice form going into the World Cup break, but has been shaky in the New Year. A lack of aggression and mediocre anticipation has hindered him, and it looks like he’s still sorting out how to play in Gasperini’s double pivot.
He has been handy on the ball, and has shown the ability to ping the long ball with precision we thought was reserved for Koopmeiners alone, but he has failed to put the best of his offense and his defense together at the same time. Its still unknown what type of midfield Juventus will throw at Atalanta’s double pivot, but he’ll have to be prepared for everything from Weston McKennie’s aggression, to Adrien Rabiot’s galivants forward, even to Leandro Paredes boorish behavior. Let’s hope he’s up for the task.
It’s crazy, but with a win Atalanta has the chance to go level on points with Juventus, putting La Dea directly back in the fight to earn Champion’s League qualification. Not that Atalanta isn’t already in the fight for an esteemed place in the tournament, but dethroning Juventus should help to reaffirm that a previously amorphic Atalanta is no longer lacking identity. Funny enough that Atalanta’s identity is no different than it was during seasons of 90+ goals, it just took a personnel change and a small personality crisis for the club to come full circle once again.
Its impossible not to get excited about the prospect of Jeremie Boga, Rasmus Hojlund, and Ademola Lookman propelling Atalanta back to recent offensive heights. And even if the attack leads to a cardiac defense, its goal difference and not goals conceded that matters at the end of the day. Back to the old adage of let’s just outscore everyone! Its time to show all of Italy what this newfound identity is all about – let’s get at Juve! As always, Forza Dea!
