Date: November 9, 2022
Time: 18:30 CET | 12:30 EST
A Quick Tale of the Tape
Lecce: 16th | 9 points | -6 GD | -7.1 xGD | Top Goalscorer – Gabriel Strefezza (4 goals)
Atalanta: 4th | 27 points | +9 GD | +8.7 xGD | Top Goalscorer – Ademola Lookman (6 goals)
Atalanta Looks to Come Good on Its First Trip South
Its been awhile since Atalanta had to travel south to Puglia for a match. Two and half years, in fact, when Atalanta took no prisoners and put 7 goals past a helpless defense. This time around good thing the scheduling gods were kind to La Dea waiting until the less balmy month of November to square off against the southernmost opponent currently in Serie A – Lecce. Midweek matches are never easy, but can become even more challenging when navigating all the way across the boot. The 1,000 kilometer journey right after a difficult loss to Napoli would never be ideal, but we know the story with Atalanta – the boys always have more fun away from home – and its always better to do it when the thermometers are registering 30 degrees Celsius!
With Lecce only a mere three points away from the relegation zone, on paper it should be a fun away trip for the boys. However, Lecce has been plenty scrappy this year, so Atalanta cannot afford to slide against Lecce with the gigantic Inter match looming on the weekend.
How Does Atalanta Square Off Against Lecce?
Actually a more proper question may be, what must Atalanta do to ensure it doesn’t slip against a beatable side. Atalanta already fell victim to one relegation squad this year, and cannot afford too many slipups with such a clogged top of the table. Fortunately Atalanta should be able to put numbers forth in attack. At 9.6 expected goals, Lecce has the fewest expected goals so far in the league, and its 10 actual goals scored is only better than Cremonese.
Although the results have not come for Lecce, it does not mean that its attack is devoid of any seriously threats – and in fact quite the opposite. Zambian Lemeck Banda is a firecracker on the left wing, and has one of the quickest first touches and bursts I have seen this year in the division. Add in reliable play from Gabriel Strefezza and Assan Ceesay, and Lecce have the ability to keep opposition’s defenses honest – even if that has only translated to one match in which the Giallorossi has scored at least two goals.
Yet even with Lecce’s lukewarm offense, Marco Baroni’s side has still managed six draws on the season, including stalemates against Napoli, Fiorentina, and Udinese. And this has all been on the back of its defense, which has yet to concede more than two goals in a match – which it has done only twice this season (once with ten men against Roma). A sturdy defense that has only conceded 16 goals (the same as Torino) will always keep Lecce in the match, as they presumably try to play for a draw.
Samuel Umtiti’s wild ride after his 2018 World Cup heroics now sees him as the centerpiece of Lecce’s defense, but do not discount other valuable pieces like captain, and Marten de Roon 2.0, Morten Hjulmand and Federico Baschirotto. The latter has played every minute for Lecce this season.
Similar to the Cremonese match, the onus will fall on Atalanta to create and break the deadlock. No team possesses the ball less than Lecce this year (40.8%), and even with Atalanta’s new found approach to possession, trying to play hot-potato and hit on the counter for 90 minutes is likely not a realistic option.
Atalanta has had good success developing good opportunities through turnovers, and can now more properly rely on its attackers to strike faster than in years past. But La Dea would do well not turning the match into ‘how to beat the bus.’ Lecce will be on the front foot looking for their opportunities, so it is up to Atalanta to force them into mistakes during the early moments of the match – prior to Lecce cocooning up into its low block.
Nick’s Preferred Starting XI
Obviously I would prefer to play Atalanta’s A-squad, but that may not be realistic with Inter on the fixture list in four day’s time. Instead it feels like the perfect opportunity to get guys we haven’t seen in a while some needed minutes, balanced with some of our key players.
Brandon Soppy and Caleb Okoli seem like the two most obvious inclusions. Out of Atalanta’s centerback options, Okoli can best match Banda for speed, and Atalanta will need Soppy’s devil-may-care attitude when going forward. Elsewhere across the pitch, there’s a few guys I’d like to see get their first starts of the season in black and blue. Nadir Zortea has shown enough, in my opinion, to warrant a start – and his more direct nature could blend nicely with the hesitation game of Jeremie Boga. Now who really knows what it is up with Boga, but if there’s one match that screams for him to start – it is this one. Regardless if Atalanta wants to keep or sell him, it is impossible for him to hurt his value more through receiving actual minutes. And in a match where Atalanta may need one moment of individual brilliance, Boga may still offer the best chance of pulling something magical off.
Atalanta Player to Watch – Jose Luis Palomino
I thought I would be done typing his name this year, but here we are in November and Numero Seis is back on the lineup card! It has been a tumultuous few months for Palomino, and regardless of how he was treated by Italy’s Doping Enforcement Agencies, let’s just be happy he’s back in uniform and able to participate going forward. Its doubtful that he’s match fit to feature against Lecce, but you never know! If Gasperini needs a substitute down the stretch and doesn’t want to use Rafael Toloi or Giorgio Scalvini, maybe he gets the call? Regardless, it will be key to have him down the stretch when the rest of the league’s legs have 30 matches in them, he’ll be fresh and spry with only 15 matches played. It could be a difference maker.
With no Champion’s League football this year, midweek matches are always a welcomed treat. No one wants to wait seven or eight days each week for Atalanta football! But as fun as midweek fixtures may be for fans, it has to be difficult for the squads, especially with the travel associated with travelling down to Lecce, and the prospect of relying on the rotation squad more than normal.
Still we have confidence that the rotation boys are just as capable as the main guys who still have us in the top 4 at the 1/3rd point of the season. Three more points will do wonders heading into the World Cup break, so let’s go get it done! As always, Forza Dea!
