Date: November 5, 2022
Time: 18:00 CET, 13:00 EST
A Quick Tale of the Tape
Atalanta: 2nd | 27 points | +10 GD | +7.8 xGD | Top Scorer: Ademola Lookman (5 goals)
Napoli: 1st | 32 points | +21 GD | +15.7 xGD | Top Scorer: Victor Osimhen (7 goals)
The Top of the Table Derby Commences
In a week that is already packed with excellent matches, including the Derby d’Italia and the Derby della Capitale, another match has snuck onto the calendar as perhaps the most enticing on the slate. No surprise to anyone reading this, but that is of course our very own Atalanta taking on the most in form club in all of Europe – Napoli. Luciano Spalletti’s side may have just lost midweek to Liverpool in a meaningless Champion’s League fixture, but next to nothing has stopped the Partenopei from being the envy of football fans all over Italy. Prior to Tuesday, Napoli was riding a thirteen game winning streak in all competitions, bolstered by impressive victories against Roma, Milan, Lazio, and of course Liverpool and Ajax twice.
Very little has gone wrong for Napoli this year, and rightfully so they are the early season favorites to take home the Scudetto next June. Given that Spalleti and company has done it with a comprehensive overhaul of its core makes the feat even more impressive, proving that the current Napoli side is truly a testament to what can go right when all the right players begin to mesh together. While Atalanta are doubtful to be favorites on any sportsbook this weekend, Gian Piero Gasperini’s boys have still been impressive in their own right in this early season – and have the goods and skills required to hand Napoli an upset. The question remains whether Atalanta can be disciplined enough defensively and clinical enough offensively to earn an important three points.
How Does Atalanta Handle Napoli?
If it were so easy to stop Napoli, someone would have done it already. So perhaps this is a futile question, or maybe it would be better rephrased to ‘how to slow Napoli down.’ Napoli’s ascent up the table has been remarkable, especially given the losses suffered during the summer. If you told me that Napoli would have lost its starting goalkeeper (David Ospina), the best defender in Italy (Kalidou Koulibaly), its best midfielder (Fabian Ruiz), and pulse of the club and team captain (Lorenzo Insigne) – I’d have reckoned the Neopolitans would be aiming anywhere from a 4th to 7th place finish.
That couldn’t be further from the truth! Earning 32 out of 36 points, a Napoli side retooled with the likes of Kim Min-Jae, Giacamo Raspadori, Giovanni Simeone, and of course the revelation of the early season Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has made everyone quickly forget about the high-end losses from summer. Throw in Stanslav Lobotka perfecting the regista role, and Napoli now has the most complete team in Italy.
Kvara deserves a special shoutout given how lethal he’s been this year. With 8 goals and 8 assists across 17 competitive matches this year, he made everyone quickly forget about the people’s choice, Lorenzo Insigne, and dare I say it, tied together the offense that was waiting for Insigne to leave before it could be unleashed.
Perhaps its an unpopular opinion, but I’ve always quietly believed that Napoli was always hindered by Insigne being on the pitch, making him the perfect player to test the Patrick Ewing theory – in which a team starts to play better without its best player on the pitch. Oftentimes it felt easy to dish the ball off to Insigne, and let him dictate the flow of the offense – thus living and dying with his decision making and skill. That’s still a damn good player (no one ever got fired for betting on IBM), but Napoli now seems more open to a breadth of new offensive design, creativity, and our letting itself flourish outside the shadow of a club legend. Now Napoli absolutely struck gold with Kvara, who turned out to be a complete offensive player, but even the likes of Victor Osimhen, Matteo Politano, and Hirving Lozano have all gotten a lift in this new Insigne-less offense. There’s more unpredictability within the side, with left, center, and right parts of the pitch all equally dangerous – an unforgivable task for any defense to prepare for, including Atalanta’s.
As far as stopping the Napoli attack, this Atalanta defense is one of the best equipped in Italy to slow down the train. Atalanta’s defense got back on track following the Lazio match with a convincing clean sheet against Empoli. Rafael Toloi and Berat Djimsiti are now healthy, which should help with man marking decisions and hopefully reduce silly one-off mental errors. For as well as Caleb Okoli has played in spurts this year, veteranosity (word?) may be the best solution to try and stop Napoli’s attack – especially to make up for the loss of Atalanta’s crunching midfield presence.
With Marten de Roon still sidelined through injury, Atalanta’s biggest concern may be finding an enforcer in the middle of the pitch to slow down the progress of Lobotka and Piotr Zielinski. One year ago, Remo Freuler and de Roon drove an overrun Lobokta into the ground, but that becomes tougher this year with the personnel at Gasperini’s disposal. None of Teun Koopmeiners, Mario Pasalic, nor Ederson can truly be relied on as aggressive defensive midfielders. Giorgio Scalvini is a potential solution, and may not be a bad gamble as an occupant in the midfield. Monitor the midfield selection process, as it may determine how Gasperini prefers to play the match.
Nick’s Preferred Starting XI
As you can see by my selection, I did not opt for Scalvini in the midfield, preferring the formation witnessed against Empoli. It may be more attacking in nature, but the way I see it: it’ll be extremely difficult to hold a clean sheet against Napoli, so go forth with the lineup that has the best chance of piling on the offensive pressure. And still, a three midfield lineup still clogs up the middle of the pitch that Napoli uses so effectively. Ederson and Pasalic may not possess the crunch that de Roon has, but Ederson has the agility to make up for what he lacks in aggression. Its a risky midfield trio, but hopefully strength will come in numbers, and proper positioning can cover for individual physicality.
This has to be Duvan’s back to the starting lineup party right? He hasn’t started in his last two appearances, and should be revving to contribute for more than 60 minutes for the first time in two months. Just like with Scalvini, a piece of me wants to see Rasmus Hojlund get the nod. Napoli will be without Amir Rrahmani, forcing either Leo Ostigard or Juan Jesus to supplant at the back. Neither is a smooth technician on the ball, and Hojlund’s relentless engine could be a vital weapon that may be used if Atalanta is forced to play deep in its own zone for a majority of the match. Again I think experience gets the nod here, and we all know that Duvan is equally capable of being a matchup nightmare with either Ostigard or Jesus. Still look for Hojlund to come on at some point and outhustle his way to chances.
Atalanta Player to Watch- Rafael Toloi
The captain played well in his first match back from injury, but he’ll have the test of all tests in front of him on Saturday. No one has been able to stop “Kvaradona” this year, and Rafa (with some help from Hans Hateboer) will have to put his best foot forward in defense. While I said no one has been able to stop Kvara this year, it should be noted that Roma was able to muffle the Napoli attack (including Kvara). And what do Atalanta and Roma have in common? Back three defense.
Prior to the cleansheet against Liverpool, Kvara had either scored or assisted in six of his seven previous matches. Here’s the details:
- vs. Torino: 1 goal – back three
- vs. Ajax: 1 goal, 1 assist – back four
- vs. Cremonese: 1 assist – back four
- vs. Ajax: 1 goal, 1 assist – back four
- vs. Bologna: 1 assist – back four
- vs. Roma: nothing – back three
- vs. Sassuolo: 1 goal, 2 assists: back four
Hopefully the trend is obvious, but if its not, Kvara has cooked against back four defenses recently. Yes he scored against Torino, but a Mourinho led back three was really able to put a clamp on his and Napoli’s offense. Against Roma was also the only time Napoli failed to register at least 1.0 xG, and if it wasn’t for the brilliance of Victor Osimhen, Roma looked on its way to earning a drab draw. Maybe the third defender in the back is the solution, and is the most effective way to at least slow down the Napoli attack.
But it all comes back to Toloi. He’ll be the first line of defense against Napoli’s most dangerous offensive threat. The success of the defense will live and die with him. These are where captain’s performances are made!
Atalanta Number of the Week: 1 – The number of midfielders in Serie A who have played 100% of their teams minutes this year. Can you guess who it is? None other than Teun Koopmeiners. He continues to be the most vital player on the squad. Even as other players have gotten a few more accolades as of late, his continuing presence and quick decision making is still essential to Atalanta’s success this year.
Regardless of the outcome on Saturday, it will be fun. With so few Atalanta matches left until the World Cup break, we have to get all the Dea action we can, before we’re left with the drab action of an Italy-less World Cup – and early winter transfer rumors becomes the water cooler talk on Twitter (I half kid)! Still even if the odds are stacked against pretty much every team squaring off against Napoli this year, I know deep down inside this squad there’s a fighting spirit that can dethrone the current King of the hill.
Whether it will happen is to be determined, but never underestimate what Gasperini is able to conjure up that lifts his teams to heights no one ever expects. It’ll take a full team performance this time round, with inspiration coming from everywhere. I’m just hoping we see that spirit that has gotten Atalanta vital and historical wins against the like of Juventus, Liverpool, and Ajax. This feels like one of those games, let’s go get it done! As always, Forza Dea!
