Date: October 9, 2022
Time: 15:00 CET | 9:00 EST
A Quick Tale of the Tape
Udinese: 3rd | 19 points | +9 GD | +4.0 xGD
Atalanta: t1st | 20 points | + 9 GD | +3.7 xGD
A Duel for the Ages for the Queens of the Provinces
Over the past decade no two provincial Italian teams have been as successful as Udinese and Atalanta. And just as it may have been looking like the provincial squads in Italy were about to bow down to the metropolis squads during the 2022/23 campaign, both Atalanta and Udinese have stormed to the top of the table with a vengeance. With no European football to prepare for, Atalanta tied for 1st, and Udinese alone in 3rd place have the ability and quality to make matters extremely difficult for the standard heavyweights in Italy.
But when the squads play each other, of course us Atalantini have to put aside our ‘root for the underdog’ mentality and figure out a way to dispatch the hottest team in the league. The winner of six straight matches, Andrea Sottil’s squad has run rank in the early months of the season, with a squad that is relatively unchanged (or perhaps even weaker than it was last year). And Udinese hasn’t glided by just racking up points against cupcakes. Convincing victories against Fiorentina, Roma, Sassuolo, and Inter have proven that this run has not been bolstered up by a run against inferior opposition. This Udinese team is legitimate, and it will take a strong Atalanta performance to earn three points on the road in a difficult environment.
What Makes Udinese Tick and How Does Atalanta Stop Them?
Udinese’s offense has been strong, but let’s start out at the back and work our way up. Nothing stands out about Udinese’s defensively in the early season. Its a passive approach that doesn’t rely on heavy pressure or forcing turnovers high up the pitch. Like Atalanta, Le Zebre are much more comfortable off the ball, preferring to pounce after luring opposition into its lair. Against Fiorentina, a match that Udinese won, Le Zebre won possessing the ball for 27% of the time! On the season Udinese has permitted 70% of its opponent’s touches to be either in the middle of the pitch or in its own defensive half – currently 4th worst in the league. Udinese; however, does clamp down when opposition moves the ball moves further up the pitch – with only 3.5% of opposition’s touches coming in Udinese’s defensive third of the pitch – neck and neck with Inter and Napoli and good for 8th in the division.
So with a stingy defense led by Serie A mainstay Rodrigo Becao, Nehuen Perez, and pop-up goalscorer extraordinaire Jaka Bijol – Udinese has an excellent base to build off. And then on the attack, Sottil’s side strikes. Clinical finishing may help boost Udinese’s goal scoring numbers past expected values, but when you’re consistently hitting on the counterattack, dangerous chances may not be given the weight they deserve by the computers. Case in point, Udinese’s expected threat in the early going (which is a measure of moving balls into dangerous scoring areas) is deservedly in the top 5 (inches ahead of Atalanta).
And then to top off Udinese’s fury of scoring chances has been slick finishing. Regardless of which xG metric you choose to use, Udinese is probably outperforming it. For example, Statsbomb has anticipated Udinese to score 11.8 goals this year, versus the 17 the squad has put past the keepers. There’s reason to believe that Udinese can’t keep such a furious clip up over the long run, but when you’re riding high on form in the short-term, throw out the metrics and watch out for the deadly combination that is confidence and good vibes.
And no one is exhibiting the good vibes this year like Beto. The Portuguese dynamo is taking another step forward this year – already netting five goals, and putting home a tidy 3.9 expected goals on target versus 3.1 expected goals – which is Luis Muriel like finishing. If you recall an article I wrote back in the offseason, the ratio between expected goals on target and expected goals is something like .91, so Beto’s 1.25 xGOT/xG ratio is affirmation of a guy riding high and simultaneously figuring out how to use all his potential. Beyond Beto, Atalanta must compete with the otherworldly ball movement that Destiny Udogie and Gerard Deulofeu provide. Again, Deulofeu is running away as the most dangerous attacker in the league based on expected threat (interestingly Teun Koopmeiners is second), and will be the linchpin that Marten de Roon will be tasked with containing.
Based on everything I described above, this is not an easy opponent to dissect. There’s a lot of similarities to Atalanta, but what Udinese has is a bonafide attacking threat that can carry his team on his back. Everything hinges on disrupting the three point connection between Udogie > Deulofeu > Beto (or if Success is playing striker). That’s the counterattacking heartbeat of Udinese, and honestly a disciplined squad could overcommit to stopping that trio and probably work its way to a low scoring draw (easier said than done of course).
But Atalanta wants three points, and goals still have to come from somewhere – and Udinese has been stingy in the last few matches. Even though Udinese have conceded two in its last two, both goals were wonder strikes – one from Nicolo Barella and the other from Scotsman Josh Doig. Even the goal Udinese conceded against Sassuolo was the result of a poor pass out of the back from Enzo Ebosse who hasn’t started since that match! But I think the Sassuolo approach is still the key – early pressing – forcing Udinese’s centerbacks to successfully outlet the ball to the playmakers.
That’s how Milan was able to put four goals past Udinese, and its a strategy that may work well for Atalanta. Even though this new look Atalanta is more comfortable out of possession – Dea still rate well in PPDA (3rd in the league) – and are still looking to force turnovers early in a defensive shift. Now its just up to Gian Piero Gasperini’s men to be clinical once those turnovers are created. The Fiorentina match was an excellent display at what the squad can do to force turnovers – and maybe to Atalanta’s fortune they won’t have Lucas Martinez Quarta running around to disrupt every chance Atalanta is able to create.
Nick’s Preferred Starting XI
There’s not a whole lot of changes to this lineup from the one that faced Fiorentina. Sadly Rafael Toloi is out for a stint thanks to his old man hamstring, but fortunately Merih Demiral looks healthy to guide the defensive youth products. I go back and forth on whether Giorgio Scalvini or Caleb Okoli should be on the right side of the pitch to deal with Udogie, plus the occasional time in which Deulofeu switches sides. But frankly, it may not matter much – Atalanta needs to be strong on both flanks – and Okoli’s raw speed may be more useful defending against Deulofeu – permitting Scalvini to act more in the Toloi role and get forward when necessary.
The midfield may be the only obvious place in which Atalanta holds a personnel advantage. Marten de Roon and Teun Koopmeiners have yet to miss a minute this year and should at least be the favorites to control the midfield against Jean-Victor Makengo and Walace. But we already know that de Roon and Koopmeiners are locks to perform well, the linchpin for Atalanta could be Ederson. His performances have been a bit uneven since his debut against Hellas Verona, and this would be a perfect game for the Brazilian to breakout. Yes, he’s apparently still learning the trequartista role, but having some free space left unoccupied by a streaking Udogie may give him some offensive breathing room to dictate play.
At striker, are we ready for a Luis Muriel breakout? There were offensive flashes finally coming to the forefront against Fiorentina, but rather than flashes we need consistent and steady streams of output. Muriel has scored 10 goals against Udinese in Atalanta colors – so if there’s one opponent for him to break out against – it is his former club.
Atalanta’s Key to Earning Three Points
Similar to the Roma match – I envision this match begins with both teams figuring out how best to play without possessing the ball too frequently. It could be cagey, as a hiccup by Napoli means that either team could spring into first place. But Atalanta has been here before, and maybe that’s enough to take advantage of the situation and force Udinese into mistakes. And frankly that should be the name of the game, look for any sign of Udinese apprehension, tension, hesitation, and pounce on it.
Go ugly with those deep and bouncy long balls. Make Rodrigo Becao nestle down the perfect header so Luis Muriel can’t run onto a long ball and streak towards the goal. Force Neheun Perez, Jaka Bijol, and Walace to make pinpoint passes to get the ball to their playmakers. Be relentless at the initial point of losing the ball, and if Udinese can work its way out of pressure – rely on a Merih Demiral led defense to go to work as it has done so far all season.
There’s not a whole lot of deep strategy involved here, but this feels like a game that comes down to one mental error costing a team victory. Atalanta has played countless big games in recent memory, Udinese hasn’t. Put pressure on them to have their mentality and decision making match their early season performances. And if they are able to – hats off to them!
I must admit as a sports fan that always roots for the underdog I love watching Udinese ascend up the Serie A table early in the year. If they can keep contact with the top four throughout the season it would probably be the most impressive accomplishment in Serie A since, well, when Atalanta first did it several seasons ago. Unfortunately both Atalanta and Udinese cannot earn three points in this match, so let’s be realistic we all still want and need Atalanta to be the victors.
This game is intriguing for so many reasons, and honestly this game transcends Udine and Bergamo and is the ultimate display of the talent spread about in Serie A. Heck the combined population of Bergamo and Udine is 220k, and among the top five leagues – maybe only Villarreal and Hoffenheim can stake a claim to the current most successful clubs outside of Europe’s metropolises.
Its weird, people often complain about Italy’s lack of punch when it gets on the European stage, and it is somewhat justified criticism. However, the unintended consequence of Juventus, Inter, and Milan failing to take a stranglehold on the league like Bayern or PSG in their respective leagues is seeing the provincial teams work their way into competition with the supposed ‘big clubs.’ Among the top-5 leagues, Serie A stands alone with its unpredictability in who will actually win the title. And games like this should be celebrated. Udinese and Atalanta this year have ascended beyond what financials and expectations tell us should happen, and they are proving that there are always multiple ways to be competitive in modern football.
Sometimes you just have to be daring enough to try them out.
I wish this was the prime time match on Sunday, as it has every right to be the game of the week; alas, I’ll settle for a brilliantly fought game that hopefully still has us coming out in front. Until then, enjoy, and as always, Forza Dea!
