Even with the World Cup coming in November the pesky powers that be were able to sneak in one international break for old times sake. Having to wait another week for Atalanta football is tough, but honestly a break comes at the right time for Dea. An unprecedented start to the season has Atalanta tied for first in the league, undefeated, and with the best defensive record in the division. Ask any fan at the start of the season if that is an acceptable place to be after seven matches, and I reckon 99% would say yes!
What is so puzzling to us Atalantini is the methods that have gotten us here. Our brains have had to be rewired early in this campaign to have us rethink what a successful football model in Bergamo is. The days of high flying attack look to be gone, but did anyone expect the philosophy to turn a full 180 into our current defensive first setup? Again I doubt anyone would have thought that, but at the end of the day, you cannot argue with the results.
So how has it happened for La Dea? A little bit of luck never hurts – hello Roma match – but its obvious there’s a plan in place, and the seventeen points Atalanta have earned this year is not due to pure statistical noise. I’ll take a stab at a few things I’ve noticed – and then maybe what Atalanta can hopefully improve upon to ensure that this early wild ride doesn’t come to a premature end.
The Squad is Younger
Now squad age isn’t necessarily an indicator of success, but it is certainly important to note. Atalanta’s weighted team average age last year was 27.2 years – so far this year it is down to 26.2 years. A full year age difference doesn’t seem like a whole lot, but when you take into account the staples of the team who have aged a full year bringing up the average (hello Rafa Toloi and Marten de Roon) it makes more sense. All over the pitch younger options are replacing older veterans mainly through injury. This is what we’re looking at:
Rasmus Hojlund (19) replacing Luis Muriel and Duvan Zapata (31)
Brandon Soppy (20) replacing Davide Zappacosta (30)
Ederson (23) replacing Remo Freuler (30)
Caleb Okoli (21) replacing Jose Luis Palomino (32) and Berat Djimsiti (29)
Its debatable whether these are all skill upgrades, but for a team that was riddled by injuries last year, you’d take your bets that the younger guys run less risk of succumbing to nagging injuries. Freuler is the exception to the rule regarding age, but Atalanta is already running into injury concerns with Zapata, Zappacosta, and Muriel this year. Having able bodied backups with little drop off in skill is valuable. Gian Piero Gasperini also deserves credit for having the faith to use them, and he’s been handsomely rewarded so far for his leap of faith.
The Defense Is More Calculating
I was going to use passive instead of calculating, but it carries such a negative connotation; nonetheless, the business we have grown accustomed to with Atalanta’s heavy press has gone out the window. Instead Atalanta has employed a very heavy defense first approach, and again you cannot argue with the results. Dea have conceded three goals on the year, best in the league, and have only permitted 6.3 expected goals, good for third in the league. Even though Atalanta is only possessing the ball for 46% of the time (versus 55% last year), opposition still is not being afforded good chances.
One thing that Atalanta still excels at is pressing when necessary. No more are we experiencing a press-at-all-costs mentality, but this new Gasperini squad still rates third in the league in PPDA (passes per defensive actions allowed), doing so at a clip 15% better than league average versus 18% better than league average last season. So it seems that Atalanta is more wisely choosing its opportunities when to press, and opting to play good defense when the press doesn’t immediately create a turnover. Not a bad strategy when you are comfortable in your defending.
An add on to this, Atalanta’s field tilt, which is a measure of positional dominance, has plummeted from 62% to 46%. So taking Atalanta’s field tilt which has changed dramatically, and its PPDA that has changed only minutely compared to league average, Atalanta seems to be maximizing the fewer opportunities it has to press in its opposition’s half [PPDA only measures pressing situations in the opposition’s part of the pitch]. A good strategy if you can get it to work, and fortunately for Atalanta’s defense – Merih Demiral, Rafael Toloi, and Marten de Roon have all stepped up to provide a strong backbone in defense when the press is unsuccessful.
Offensively The Squad Has Been More Direct
I’ll fully admit that there still are some concerns around the offense. Duvan hoofball at the beginning of the year was a trajectory I did not want to go down, but fortunately since his injury the continued direct style that has come about has been positive. Admittedly the underlying offensive numbers are ugly, but Atalanta has still been able to convert its few chances into 9.1 xG – which is good for 7th in the division. Combine that with a top notch defense, and Atalanta’s goal differential is thus tied for second in the league at +8 (Napoli is first at +10).
If you look under the hood of what has made this offense click, it may have you confused. But just because you may not understand it, doesn’t it make it any less beautiful! Even without Duvan, Route 1 seems to be the name of the game. Previously it was launch up to Duvan, and now it has just changed to launch into space and let Rasmus Hojlund or Luis Muriel go chase it. The most telling stat is the rate at which Atalanta is rifling off long passes. Last season, the boys only pinged a long pass 15% of the time. This season, it has shot up to 21% of Atalanta’s passes! Passing efficiency has dropped as a result, and now one out of every four passes Atalanta attempts ends in failure. A 75% completion percentage has Atalanta rubbing shoulders with the likes of Cremonese, Lecce, and Empoli (yuck).
Fortunately, Atalanta has been to weather the storm during this moment of reflection and search for identity due to the personnel at its disposal. In a counterattacking system, Atalanta seems to have negotiated well this summer bringing in Hojlund, Brandon Soppy, Ademola Lookman, and Ederson; all of whom can do well in a counterattack, and honestly are now close to creating the spine of our offense.
Unfortunately, it hasn’t yet translated into too many goals. Seven out of Atalanta’s eleven goals this year have either come from outside the box shots, penalties, or a set piece. The squad still needs to hone in on the crispness when it decides its time to attack – but growing pains are to be expected with a brand new attack trying to play together for the first time in meaningful minutes. I expect them to start sorting everything out.
After a tumultuous early August, how can we not be happy with our current results?! Tied for first in the league, while conceding only three goals has Atalanta far ahead of its retool schedule. Now hopefully Dea can take this head start it afforded itself and really start cooking once the familiarity level grows even more among the squad.
The next block of matches between now and the World Cup start will be brutal. Consecutive matches against Fiorentina, an upstart Udinese, Sassuolo, and Lazio will show the true colors of this team and hopefully confirm the positive start we’ve seen. I’ll gladly keep exchange more points for goals scored, and if Gasperini’s madness in ditching his offensive style keeps on working, I’ll buy a first class ticket on whatever crazy train he’s conducting! Here’s to a great month of October! As always, Forza Dea!
