Date: May 21, 2022
Time: 18:00 CET
A Quick Tale of the Tape
Atalanta: 8th place | 59 points | +18 GD | +17.6 xGD
Empoli: 14th place | 38 points | -21 GD | -17.9 xGD
A Final Farewell to an Uneven Season
It is quite a different matchday 38 this year than it was one year ago. Fall back in time, and Atalanta was looking to finish off the Serie A season in its highest every placing – unfortunately failing to clip Milan, and thus settling for third place in the league. This time around La Dea will be lucky just to achieve European football next, simultaneously needing some help from the city of Torino in the process.
But in order to reach either Conference League or Europa League football next year, Atalanta still needs to take care of its own business at home against Empoli. Everyone knows that Atalanta plays at the Gewiss stadium like it is under house arrest. It has been one of the most glaring black marks in a season full of underachievement. However on the flip side, Atalanta’s foe has been equally unimpressive the last five months, regardless of the venue. Indeed Empoli has only achieved one victory this calendar year, a freak one at that against Napoli. Thanks to its hot start the Tuscan side achieved safety relatively early, if not Empoli may also have been duking it out with the likes of Salernitana and Cagliari for staving off relegation.
But it didn’t happen that way for the Azzurri. If there’s one thing Aurelio Andreazzolis’ boys didn’t do this year, it was back off its principles. Few teams in Serie A invited such a frantic pace to the match, and Empoli truly lives by the mantra of live or die by the sword. The Azzurri on its day can score in bunches, confirmed by convincing goal outputs against the likes of ‘defensive minded teams’ like Bologna and Udinese. Oppositely, they can just as easily ship goals away without a second thought. In thirteen matches Empoli conceded at least three goals, including to Atalanta who put away four on the road back in the autumn. Atalanta should be prepared for a back and forth match, but fortunately this game flow tends to suit our Dea.
Empoli Player to Watch – Nedim Bajrami
The Albanian international was instrumental in helping Emopli ascend into Serie A, and now this year he’s been dynamite in keeping his team up in the top level. The 23 year old firecracker has been Empoli’s sparkplug this year registering six goals, three assists, and registering a top 30 place in Serie A for expected threat (a measurement that calculates how effective a player is at moving balls into more dangerous areas). It has been awhile since Bajrami has contributed an actual goal for his side (4 months in fact), but that can be said for many on this squad. On his day Bajrami can wreak havoc, and needs to be watched like a hawk.
A Return for Josip Ilicic?
Rumor has it that Josip Ilicic may resurface for one final match this season. Ilicic’s ongoing depression issues are well-documented, and the main priority always lies in him doing what’s best for him mentally. But what a return it would be if Ilicic was able to come back for one final match this season! Its doubtful if Ilicic will return to don black and blue next year, so it would be beautiful if the Tifosi could see him compete one last time, and hopefully give him a proper sendoff – if this is indeed his last match with Atalanta. Ilicic did have a brace last time out against Empoli – and was a missed penalty away from a hattrick. Maybe this is the opponent he needs to find his way onto the score sheet.
Atalanta Passione’s Predicted Starting XI
Let’s just say this is more of an anticipated starting XI, rather than desired starting XI. After Gian Piero Gasperini shocked Bergamo and inserted Matteo Pessina into the starting lineup against Milan – there’s no reason he won’t do it again against an inferior opponent. Add to it, that Pessina was ‘fine’ against Milan, and it feels like a recipe for a second consecutive start for lefty.
Supplanting Pessina will undoubtedly be Duvan Zapata. With Luis Muriel likely out due to injury, Zapata becomes the only striker option. However, perhaps this is another chance to see Moustapha Cisse!
Without a creative midfield option (no Ruslan Malinovskyi or Jeremie Boga) this should be a game for Teun Koopmeiners to again dictate the tempo. Just like he did against Spezia, Koopmeiners’s longball may be the best recipe to feed Duvan without any adept dribblers to shuttle the ball up to the big Colombian.
Some Fun with Numbers
Atalanta is on 65 goals for the season which is somehow the fifth best record in Serie A. However, this is obviously not up to Atalanta’s lofty attacking standards. In fact, if Atalanta fails to score five goals against Empoli, it will be the first season since 2017-2018 in which Atalanta has failed to score 70 goals. Atalanta’s place in the league that year…. 7th.
The permutations are pretty cumbersome, but Atalanta somehow still has a 51% chance of reaching European competition next year (based on FiveThirtyEight match probabilities). If Atalanta is able to win and one of Fiorentina or Roma do not win, Atalanta will secure at least 7th place in the league.
Josip Ilicic has 96 career goals in Serie A. Banging home four is extremely unrealistic, but imagine the scenes if he hit the century mark on the final day of the season!
Obviously this is not the season everyone had hoped for when it started off shaky back in August. Dips in form happen, as do lulls in tactical precision. When all is said and done, its frankly amazing the boys still have a chance to compete in Europe next year. But it is all for naught if Atalanta cannot win against Empoli. All the cards are on table now, so let’s go out and give it more than a good college try, and hope that Gasperini put a call into his old friend Ivan Juric to convince il Toro to squeak a few goals past Roma. But all Atalanta can do is control and dictate the tempo in its own game and hope for the best elsewhere – so let’s stay positive! As always, Forza Dea!!!
