Date: May 8, 2022
Time: 12:30 CET, 6:30 EST
A Quick Tale of the Tape
Atalanta: 8th place | 56 points | +18 GD | +17.1 xGD
Spezia: 16th place | 33 points | -26 GD | -29.1 xGD
The Limpfest Continues for Atalanta
The good news, Atalanta gets to play on the road. The bad news, La Dea has the lunchtime kickoff. The 12:30 time slot has been unfriendly to Atalanta this year who have only been able to muster one point out of nine. As an American, its not the best way to kick off a Sunday morning – but the things we do for love I guess… Regardless Atalanta will look to reverse all of its fortunes against a Spezia squad that has done just enough to enjoy one more year in Italy’s top flight. The side from (loosely translated into English) The Spices has scuffled a bit recently, making their final journey through the fixture schedule a bit more problematic; but ultimately the Ligurians should be safe.
In a way Thiago Motta has pulled off a bit of an escape act. Spezia has put together a -29.0 expected goal differential this year, with only Salernitana and Venezia performing worse. More surprisingly is the 17th placed team in the metric. Cagliari at -20.8 xGD has an eight point cushion over Spezia, but the Ligurians will be happy with the reversal of fortunes, with Spezia out-earning Cagliari by five points.
So all this illustrates a seemingly easy contest for Atalanta to handle. La Dea is on the road, Gian Piero Gasperini and his men are squaring off against a team that realistically is relegation caliber, and as the year winds down a team that has very little to play for. But lesser opponents have forced Atalanta from playing its game, and each match this second half the year continues to feel like a crapshoot. Injuries continue to be La Dea’s worst enemy this year, Jose Luis Palomino, Giorgio Scalvini, and Duvan Zapata all questionable after training separate from the group late in the week. At this point all Atalantini can hope for is positive efforts. Moral victories aren’t fun for anyone, but during a season where expectations have been immensely curbed, let’s take what we can get. Especially when every point earned is one step closer to a possible European tournament placement.
Spezia Player to Watch – Kevin Agudelo
While the Colombian may have recently featured on my SerieAnalystPOD as a potential wingback, Kevin Agudelo can certainly still cause havoc up front for oppositions. Three goals and zero assists on the year is nothing to sneeze at, but Agudelo still possesses peskiness and a never ending motor to cause confusion amongst an opposition’s backline. In fact no forward averages more presses per 90 minutes in the top-5 leagues than Agudelo. Unfortunately for him and Spezia, there’s just not enough offensive firepower for these to translate into meaningful chances. But sometimes all you need is just that one chance caused by hustle.
Atalanta Passione’s Predicted Starting XI
As mentioned above, health continues to not be Atalanta’s friend in 2022. The lack of centerback options, and lack of dangerous threat make it a perfect opportunity to try something different in the tactic. Atalanta has cobbled together a four back system enough times this year that it is not foreign to anyone, while being the perfect cover to not rush back Palomino before he is ready. Atalanta will want him for next week against Milan.
Where the choice gets a bit more challenging is up front. Let’s assume Duvan Zapata doesn’t start – requiring Luis Muriel to lead the line. Where Atalanta once had an abundance of riches now feels like an abundance of 20% off Bed Bath and Beyond coupons – useful but not desirable. Maybe I’m being a bit too harsh, as Mario Pasalic has seriously upped his game recently. Scoring in three straight contests, the Croat should be a lock to start. Pairing him with with either Ruslan Malinovskyi or Jeremie Boga – who both have been really streaky – becomes the question. Malinovskyi set up Pasalic with a brilliant assist against Salernitana, so let’s opt for the passer over the dribbler on this occasion.
Some Fun with Numbers
Mario Pasalic has now scored in three consecutive matches for La Dea, pushing up to 12 goals on the year. With his 12 non-penalty goal this year, the Croat is now tied for 8th in the league in non-penalty goals tied with 40M euro man Gianluca Scamacca. Additionally no midfielder has scored more goals than Pasalic this year – with Gerard Deulofeu one goal behind Pasalic with 11.
If Remo Freuler starts the next three matches, he will be tied with Rafael Toloi on 24 matches captained this year. Matches have been difficult procedures with Freuler donning the armband, with La Dea only earning 24 points (assuming Europa League knockout wins count as three points earned) in his 21 captained games. There’s little that can be drawn from this data, but it is interesting to note how much better Atalanta have done with Toloi in charge, which probably has more to do with how valuable Toloi is as a player than his perceived leadership advantage over Freuler.
Luis Muriel has a couple of monuments he is chasing. As mentioned previously in other articles, if he scores two more goals this, he will have 5 seasons of double digit goals in Serie A. Perhaps more monumental, he only needs three more goals for 100 career Serie A goals, in which he would become the second Colombian to achieve the milestone. Of course his teammate, Duvan Zapata, eclipsed the century mark earlier this year – against Spezia no less. Muriel hattrick incoming then?
What else is there to say at this point? Let’s just see how it goes, and hope the three points is the outcome that follows a good game plan and execution. European competition feels secondary right now to just a good process, and Atalanta can certainly use a revamped offensive (and maybe defensive) style. Playing Spezia’s leaky defense should help, and gaining some big momentum prior to the huge upcoming match against Milan would be great. But until then, let’s go out and have some fun! As always, Forza Dea!!!
