Date: May 2, 2022
Time: 20:45 CET, 14:45 EST
A Quick Tale of the Tape
Atalanta: 8th place | 54 points | +18 GD | +16.8 xGD
Salernitana: 18th place | 25 points | -42 GD | -29.6 xGD
A Juggernaut Visits the Gewiss
Guess who’s tied for the longest current winning streak in Serie A? It’s not Inter, not Juventus, it’s certainly not Atalanta. Give up? Its Salernitana! Yes, the club that had been serial basement dwellers all year have picked up nine straight points and have now given themselves a puncher’s chance of achieving safety in Serie A. And Salernitana hasn’t just beaten scrubs either. Two victories against Udinese and Fiorentina are quality, and will likely have Atalanta more worried than the club would have been by this fixture just three weeks earlier.
Part of Atalanta’s woes will certainly be centered around its continuing inability to win at home. With one Serie A victory at home in 2022, La Dea have to overcome its own mentality while fending off a plucky opponent that has an all-time high mentality. As well as Salernitana has recently played, La Dea should realistically not have any difficulties dispatching its second consecutive Granata squad. But it will have to come with a disciplined game plan with minimal errors. Salernitana have done an excellent job of minimizing opponent’s chances, while being clinical with its own chances. This can often spell disaster for Atalanta, who are kings at peppering opposition with low quality chances, while simultaneously offering plenty of space are opposing attack to run into. Mistakes killed Atalanta against Torino, let’s make sure mental errors don’t carry over – especially as the stakes get higher each matchweek for European places.
Salernitana Player to Watch – Federico Bonazzoli
Speaking of mistakes, Salernitana talisman Federico Bonazzoli knows how to take advantage of them. He was all over Igor in his last match against Fiorentina, taking advantage of the Brazilian’s heavy touch – leading to his 8th goal of the season as well as the match winner against La Viola.
Salernitana haven’t scored a lot this year – with 28 goals on the season – but the young Italian has been responsible for over 30% of those goals – netting 8 on the season. With Bonazzoli working off the hulking shoulders of the Granata’s tree in the middle of the pitch Milan Djuric, the lefty may find himself space to test the Atalanta net. Whoever ends up playing on the left of Atalanta’s defense will have to be ready from all the knockdowns coming off the head of Djuric before Bonazzoli is able to wriggle onto the ball.
Atalanta Passione’s Predicted Starting XI
I’m so sick of Createformation not updating its library to include updated rosters, I took the liberty of adding Giorgio Scalvini. With the combination of Rafael Toloi being ruled out through injury, and Berat Djimsiti suffering a rough patch – there is little doubt that Scalvini gets another start. Not that he needs other things to happen for him to get a start, he deserves them on merit now too!
With Atalanta’s famously cryptic squad announcements, it makes it very challenging to predict starters further up the pitch. All of Teun Koopmeiners, Giuseppe Pezzella, and Joakim Maehle were recently ruled out. These three would likely see starts against a squad like Salernitana, but without any knowledge on injury progression, we can only assume that Gian Piero Gasperini will go with his same midfield employed against Torino.
Up the pitch, how can Gian Piero Gasperini not continue with both Duvan Zapata and Luis Muriel in attack? A seven goal output in two matches is surely one of Atalanta’s best stretches on the year, and trying to do something cheeky, when its been so difficult to establish a consistent offense, feels wrong. Luis Muriel has been involved in Atalanta last six goals, and will probably be licking his chops for a brace and finally hitting double digit goals on the year.
Some Fun With Numbers
Salernitana has a cavernous defense this year. No one has let more goals in than the boys from the south with 70. But interestingly, they rate a bit better in expected goals allowed, only permitting 58 by this statistic. In fact, no side in Serie A has a greater difference between goals allowed and expected goals allowed – suggesting the Granata may have been a bit hard done this year. Certainly not hard done enough to be outside the drop zone, but perhaps its defense isn’t the worst in the league.
Salernitana may not lead the league in a lot of categories, but it does have some hulking boys that can duke it out in the aerial battle. With at least 50 aerials contested, no one has won more battles than Argentinian defenseman Federico Fazio at an 81% clip. In addition, Milan Djuric leads forwards with 70.5% of aerials won. Also from a raw numbers standpoint, no one is even close to the Bosnian in headers won. With 227 aerial duels won, Morten Thorsby in second place is still 44 duels behind him with 183 won. That’s some effective hoofball!
Speaking of Atalanta’s two match goal outputs – seven goals over two matches is indeed the most Atalanta has secured over 180 minutes. Done three times, the latest was the most recent against Venezia and Torino. La Dea has also scored seven against Venezia and Napoli, as well as against Cagliari and Spezia. Victories are usually accompanying these goal outputs, with the Torino match being the only contest out of these six in which La Dea did not win.
In such a seemingly innocuous match between the 8th placed and 18th placed teams in the league, there is still a lot on the line for Atalanta. First, a victory helps La Dea leapfrog Fiorentina in the standings in its push for European football. Second, the result is a big statement on how Atalanta should view the rest of its season. A victory – then charge on for as high a placement as possible. A loss or a draw – its more fuel on the fire for Atalanta to seriously consider what it needs to change going forward.
While Salernitana has found a nice run of form recently, La Dea should not have any doubts about taking three points against a probable relegation side – at home nonetheless. If Atalanta cannot unlock a poor Salernitana defense – all of the questions fans and pundits have been asking the last several months become much more amplified. Let’s hope this match isn’t the squad’s undoing, and the boys charge out and comfortably earn an all-important three points! As always, Forza Dea!!!
