Date: April 27, 2022
Time: 20:15 CET, 14:15 EST
A Quick Tale of the Tape
Atalanta: 8th place | 54 points | +18 GD | +16.2 xGD
Torino: 11th place | 43 points | +6 GD | +10.2 xGD
The Coveted Game in Hand Advantage Comes to an End
The sub-heading says it all; Atalanta loses its perceived schedule favorability after Wednesday. After a few months and couple of question marks on whether this game was to be replayed, Atalanta will finally welcome Torino to the Gewiss Stadium on Wednesday. Even without the Europa League, Atalanta cannot quit the mystique of playing midweek – even if very different marbles are up for grabs in this match. If Atalanta can earn three points, La Dea can sandwich themselves right in the middle of the Roman clubs, and make an absolute mess for placement in the Europa League and Conference League next year.
However, Torino is anything but a pushover. La Dea are probably still shook by the first kickoff of this season in which il Toro ran Atalanta off the pitch, only to be saved by the heroics of Roberto Piccoli right at the stroke of the final whistle. Nothing has changed much with this Torino squad. Ivan Juric’s squad still boasts a stellar defense that is fifth in goals conceded and second in expected goals conceded. But where Torino still lacks is in its offensive punch. 38 goals on the year has suppressed Torino in the standings, and is the main reason why Juric’s team also isn’t duking it out for European qualification. La Granata don’t lack quality up front, but it hasn’t come together for a squad that hasn’t been able to rely on out-of-contract talisman Andrea Belotti for much this year.
If Atalanta can ensure that Torino’s bullyish press is contained to the midfield, and not La Dea’s defensive zone, then the boys have a good chance. The last thing Atalanta needs and wants to do is help to manufacture goals for a team that struggles to score them, and is simultaneously elite at preventing them.
Torino Player to Watch- Tommaso Pobega
When youngster Tommaso Pobega is not putting in late hours at the library, studying for who knows what, he’s busy being the bullying catalyst in Torino’s stout defensive setup. While Pobega has put home four goals for La Granata this year, his work in the midfield is equally or even more impressive. Case in point was two weeks against Lazio. The Milan loanee put a crunching shift in against Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, which was nearly a perfect shift, save for the Serbian’s brilliant cross that permitted Lazio to tie the game.
But much of Torino’s success starts in the middle with Pobega. He is skilled going forward, yet he is also a perfect aggressive counterpart for either Samuele Ricci or Rolando Mandragora. Its rare that Marten de Roon gets matched for physicality in the middle of the pitch, but he’ll need to put a good shift in against and match the aggressiveness of Pobega – who will undoubtedly be setting a brutish tone for this squad. Remember when Atalanta was linked with him last summer? Oh how nice would it have been if that transfer had gone through!
Atalanta Passione’s Predicted Starting XI
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it right? Duvan Zapata and Luis Muriel got back to the basics of football last weekend (especially Muriel) and finally made scoring look easy for the first time in months. What Atalanta needs against Torino more than anything is offense that is not forced. With or without defensive stud Gleison Bremer (who is questionable after exiting early on the weekend), Torino’s backline is difficult to break down. Atalanta’s recent offensive strategy of death by one thousand passes will not suffice, regardless if Bremer is in the lineup or not.
In the midfield, Ivan Juric flat out exposed an Atalanta team that didn’t have an appropriate backup for Marten de Roon and Remo Freuler. Teun Koopmeiners was not yet with the squad, so Atalanta was forced to start Mario Pasalic and Matteo Pessina in the double pivot. No one needs to be reminded of how meek the midfield is when both the “MP”s are starting in the pivot, and Torino ensured that the midfield was dark red that match. With aforementioned Pobega leading the charge for Torino, it is compulsory that both Freuler and de Roon are both present to guarantee that the midfield scales don’t lean in Torino’s favor.
On the wings Davide Zappacosta looks to be rounding into a good bit of form, but both he and Hans Hateboer will be required to start – thanks to the absences of Giuseppe Pezzella and Joakim Maehle. Rafael Toloi is finally back from injury, and he could be a candidate to get time on the wing. However, given his history with ticky-tack injuries this year, it is probably best if he is eased back into action – rather than thrust into the fire.
Some Fun With Numbers
Speaking of Davide Zappacosta and is form, he now has two straight matches with assists from aerial crosses. His crossing isn’t the greatest, but this isn’t the first time he has run into a bit of form with his crossing precision. Now with five assists on the year, he is second on the squad in assist for Atalanta. One more and he can tie Mario Pasalic for the team lead. Who’d have ever thought that Atalanta’s top three assisters this year would be Mario Pasalic, Davide Zappacosta, and Luis Muriel?
Torino’s difficulty in scoring was addressed above. But what makes the squad’s job even tougher is the lack of a go-to scorer when the going gets tough. Josip Brekalo is the squad’s leading scorer with six goals – which is the lowest quantity of goals for a team’s top scorer in Serie A (Daniele Verde is tied with Brekalo, only putting away six goals for Spezia this year).
If Bremer is indeed fit for this match, viewers will be treated to a duel of two of the league’s most aggressive defenders. If you’ve seen my work on SerieAnalystPOD, you’ll know that no one rates better in adjusted defensive actions per minute than Bremer and Jose Luis Palomino. Palomino leads the league with 18.7 defensive actions per 90 minutes of defense, with Bremer a close second at 16.9 (defensive actions = tackles + blocks + interceptions). For a comparison of how busy they are in their ground duels, Alessandro Bastoni is close to average for centerbacks – putting up 11.8 adjusted defensive actions per 90.
The teacher versus the student. Gian Piero Gasperini versus Ivan Juric. Everyone knows the parallels between Gasperini and Juric, and it is quite evident watching Torino how he has turned the team into an Atalanta-lite (without the scoring, hence the lite). Atalanta likely knows the beast it is going up against, and hopefully the squad has learned to not brute force its way to a victory each time out. It is possible to pound through steel on the way to victory, but Torino is reinforced-steel – it’ll be that much tougher. Unless Atalanta looks for that one part of steel that isn’t reinforced…. Try to do the unexpected, and hopefully it leads to three points. And what a vital three points it would be! As always, Forza Dea!!!
