Date: April 18, 2022
Time: 21:00 CET, 15:00 EST
A Quick Tale of the Tape
Atalanta: 8th place | 51 points | +17 GD | +15. xGD
Hellas Verona: 10th place | 45 points | +7 GD | +2.9 xGD
Is Change Finally Afloat in Bergamo?
History will be made in Bergamo on Monday. In the 80+ times Atalanta and Hellas Verona have lined up against each other, never has that game been on a Monday. Well I guess that’s not too impressive of a stat, but now thanks to the Easter holiday, Atalanta can start the new week fresh – and hopefully can break its four match winless streak.
There may be a reckoning coming in Bergamo, but unfortunately trying to settle it against a pesky Hellas Verona squad will make it a tricky encounter. Comfortably sitting 10th in the table, the Gialloblu have defied the odds this season by not just avoiding relegation, but looking like a future staple of Serie A. Their rough and tumble nature, and the ability to make a game ugly always makes playing Igor Tudor’s side a difficult proposition. Atalanta was able to overcome an early Giovanni Simeone goal in the first matchup of the year to eventually dispatch Hellas; but it was anything but easy. With a pass completion under 70% in the match, Atalanta was able to stoop down to Hellas’s level and play ugly. Can the boys do it again? They’ll likely have to if they want to earn a vital three points.
Hellas Verona Player to Watch- Antonin Barak
While the Gialloblu rely an awful lot on disruption to earn points, Tudor’s side is not bereft of class playmakers. Case in point, Antonin Barak. The Czech international, who has loosely been linked to Atalanta, has become one of Verona’s most impactful playmakers. With ten goals on the year, Barak has become a key cog in the Verona attack that now has three players that have reached double digit goals: Barak, Simeone, and Gianluca Caprari. But what makes Barak so dangerous is his positioning in defense. No player in the league has regained possession in the opposition’s area more than Barak this year – which often has led to the plethora of goals Verona has deposited this year. Be careful on offense, but the defense has to be equally as cautious in possession.
Atalanta Passione’s Predicted Starting XI
With only Serie A to focus on, Atalanta can finally hone in on one starting XI to use for the rest of the season. However, the squad probably is not there yet. Thursday feels like an eternity, but the squad is still getting over a ridiculously busy period. As he continues to shake off the rest, Duvan Zapata should get a rest over Luis Muriel. Aleksei Miranchuk also feels like a good candidate to try and unlock offense from the right. He was excellent in Atalanta’s last victory over Verona, and with Ruslan Malinovskyi not lighting the world on fire – why not try something different.
Further back – Atalanta seriously has to find a working wingback pairing. Joakim Maehle seems to be a distant dream in Gian Piero Gasperini’s mind – so that leaves Giuseppe Pezzella as the other unique option. Pair the Neapolitan with Hans Hateboer, and see what happens. At centerback, do we see Giorgio Scalvini become a staple of the backline? Maybe. Perhaps he is best used as a swiss-army knife option to supplant in either the midfield or defense depending on how a game is shaping up. For now, maybe a more stable backline against such a dangerous attack is the best option.
Some Fun With Numbers
Hellas Verona has scored an impressive 56 goals this year, good for 6th in the league. However, Tudor’s side has completely outperformed its expected goals by a 14 goal margin. Only Lazio has gone further in the outperformance department, out earning its expected goal total by 19!
Speaking of goals, Atalanta has only deposited 53 goals into the back of the net. Decent enough to be tied for 7th in the league, but hardly what everyone has come to expect from La Dea. For sizing, Udinese has scored three less goals than Atalanta this year! That’s more a testament to Udinese offensive growth than anything, but still demonstrates how much Atalanta has had to rely on its defense to earn points this year.
As mentioned above, Verona has three players who have eclipsed the ten goal platform this year. Surprisingly, Atalanta still does not have one player to hit ten goals. Both Mario Pasalic and Zapata are at nine goals, and both should be able to reach the mark relatively soon. Still it demonstrates Atalanta’s lack of offensive firepower as a whole.
Jeremie Boga’s heroics aside in the Europa League against Bayer Leverkusen, it has not been the warmest welcome for Boga to the Gewiss. In 439 minutes of Serie A football, Boga is yet to register an assist or a goal, and a pretty tame combined 1.0 expected goals plus assists. The guy definitely knows how to dribble, but that is not translating into a final end product. He has time to figure it out, and he should have every opportunity to let his talents shine through and develop.
Atalanta is currently 5 points behind Lazio and Fiorentina for 6th place in the league. The gap feels large, but it is anything but insurmountable. Once the shock of the Europa League demise wears off, hopefully Atalanta can gain some semblance of normalcy and now put a conscious effort towards league dominance. The schedule gets easier, but Atalanta’s primary opposition will always be itself. Its one thing to always be in possession and seemingly in control of games, but we’ve missed a killer instinct that turns that possession into goals and high-chance scoring opportunities. Perhaps Zapata’s return can bring back that mojo that the club had in the first half, and trying to do it against a side as pesky as Verona is a good place to begin looking for that edge. It’ll take more than just precision to beat Verona, so hopefully the boys come out with the grit to match, and earn three points. As always, Forza Dea!!!
