Date: April 14, 2022
Time: 18:45 CET, 12:45 EST
With Atalanta having seemingly thrown all of its eggs into the Europa League basket, everything rides on what goes down at the Gewiss Stadium on Thursday night. After a thrilling match in Germany last week, Atalanta and Leipzig are level on one goal apiece. And now without the away goal rule in European competitions, the mantra is easy: “win and you’re in.”
The mantra may be easy to say, but it certainly isn’t easy to execute; Leipzig’s quality is obvious. But so is Atalanta’s, even though its home form may suggest otherwise! With the backing of the Bergamaschi faithful, Atalanta should seemingly have the upper hand playing at the Gewiss. It would be a great trend for Atalanta to buck and finally win a decisive game at home this season, and if Gian Piero Gasperini and the boys were waiting all year until Thursday for a definitive home victory, then I guess it would be worth it!
RB Leipzig Player to Watch – Konrad Laimer
Leipzig’s offensive firepower was discussed in depth last week, but even further back the pitch Rasenball’s quality still shines through. In many aspects Leipzig’s midfield mirrors Atalanta’s. Kevin Kampl and Konrad Laimer don’t wow anyone with individual splash plays that show up on highlight reels, but the consistent glue they provide to Leipzig as a team is invaluable. Laimer, in particular, does the grunt work that not only doesn’t show up in the match box score, but can even deceive the eye test. We talked last week about his insane pressing – he’s the busiest presser in Europe – and Atalanta should expect more of the same this time around.
On top of his limitless stamina, Laimer has even found himself contributing offensively. With two goals and two assists in his last two Bundesliga games, Laimer still needs to be watched like a hawk if and when Leipzig begin to mount attacks forward. The defense may be so focused on neutralizing Nkunku, Silva, Forsberg, and Olmo that it has to doubly ensure that it doesn’t let the Austrian sneak into the box for a good shot off the rebound. The old adage is true, win the midfield and win the match, so hopefully Teun Koopmeiners and Marten de Roon can repeat their excellent performances from last week and put a damper on Leipzig’s yeoman-like midfield.
Atalanta Passione’s Predicted Starting XI
Surely with Duvan Zapata back to full health the big Colombian gets his first European start since December. It is a bit concerning that Duvan played a full 90 minutes on Sunday, and its my only reservation about him starting; he surely isn’t in peak form yet after 130 minutes, so it makes sense for him to come in as a reserve. Yet, Atalanta really does need his physical presence immediately to through a wrench into Willi Orban’s defensive line. Luis Muriel can do it with a bit of trickery, but lightning may not strike twice in Muriel’s case if he’s being man-marked a bit more studiously this time out.
Further back the pitch, Rafael Toloi is definitely ruled out, but there are rumors that both Berat Djimsiti and Remo Freuler may be healthy enough to suit up. Even so, the safer bet is to go with the Dutch midfield of Marten de Roon and Teun Koopmeiners. Similarly in defense, Giorgio Scalvini’s continued rise up the Atalanta depth chart makes him a completely viable option to supplant in defense. His heady work in the midfield against Leipzig last time out was encouraging enough for me to propel him into the starting lineup.
Some Fun with Numbers
RB Leipzig has a strange stranglehold of the Hungarian footballer market. Of the four Hungarians that have played at least 1,000 minutes in the Top 5 leagues this season, three of them are on Leipzig: Peter Gulacsi, Willi Orban, and Dominik Szoboszlai. Roland Sallai of Freiburg may have to watch for his name on the transfer portal soon if Leipzig wish to corner the entire Hungarian football market.
Rightly or wrongly most Atalanta fans are well aware of the unique clause in Matteo Pessina’s contract in which Milan receives 50% of the fees of a hypothetical sale away from Atalanta. However, the fee disappears as soon as Pessina reaches 100 matches for La Dea. For those playing at home, Pessina has now played 86 matches for Atalanta, and it is statistically impossible for him to reach 100 matches this season, making a potential sale this summer a less straight forward proposition. Regardless, let’s all hope that Pessina eventually comes good and breaks out of his recent bad funk.
There’s no doubt that Ruslan Malinovskyi has not been as effective this year as last year. However, the left-footed Ukrainian is still making an awful lot happen, and he doesn’t get the accolades because his playmaking is not complimented a quality finishing touch. In fact, Malinovskyi is still 2nd in Serie A this season in xA per 90 minutes – dishing out 0.33 assists per 90 – a miniscule 0.01 xA behind Serie A leader…. wait for it…. Federico di Marco. The man can still unleash passes inside the box, but again the goals just aren’t falling for his teammates.
When it comes to scoring from set-pieces, Atalanta are still sweeping up the basement among Serie A teams. With 2 set-piece goals in Serie A, and four in European competitions, Atalanta could really afford to trouble Leipzig’s average set-piece defense with a piece of magic from Luis Muriel or Malinovskyi. Come the 85th minute or so, depending on how the tie is playing out, a bit of luck may make all the difference.
Win and advance, easy as that. FiveThirtyEight, a bit foolishly I think, has given Leipzig a slight advantage at 54% to advance, but everyone knows that this match is essentially a coin flip. With both squads effectively neutralizing each other it may come down to a moment of brilliance from someone. But that moment of brilliance cannot come from Atalanta if it doesn’t do the little things well. Atalanta continues to suffer from poor fast-break defense, heavy first touches, and sloppy passing, but can often overcome these lack of fundamentals due to the quality in the team.
Fortunately in Europe, Atalanta somehow cleans up these unforced errors, but let’s keep them out of the European spotlight. The squad has done too well only to lose on a fast-break post corner kick because nine guys were hanging out inside the box – let’s be better than that. Let’s give everyone a chance to come exceed their quality because the whole team is working as a unit. Synergy! If we can do it, Atalanta has a date in the semifinals. It’s a tall ask, but an ask that this team has pocketed and run with before! One more time, and one game at a time! As always, Forza Dea!!!
