Date: April 7, 2022
Time: 20:45 CET, 14:45 EST
Everyone breakout the aspirin because this Europa League Quarterfinals draw is going to cause Atalantini a bunch of headaches. And its not just because Red Bull is the wrong mix of caffeine and sugar, but more so because the German branch of the Red Bull conglomerate is a dangerous football team that is simultaneously trending in the right direction. Stonks galore!
The German giants were probably the last team Atalanta would have wanted to draw in the quarterfinals, but here we are. You’ve got to beat the best teams to win it all, and for the second consecutive Europa League draw, Atalanta hopes to live out that notion in real time. But Leizpig is a different beast than Bayer Leverkusen. Sitting 4th in the Bundesliga, the Saxon squad has only been trending upwards. Besides dismantling Dortmund over the weekend 4-1 in front of a sellout crowd in the Rhine region, Leizpig has only lost once in 2022 – to none other than Bayern Munich.
Atalanta’s struggles are quite evident right now, and it will take a comprehensive game plan from Gian Piero Gasperini to get the better of Domenico Tedesco and his uncanny ability to seamlessly transition between a counter attack style and gegenpress. But it should not be all doom and gloom in the Atalanta camp. It is likely that Duvan Zapata is very close, if not complete, with his recovery and may be inserted into the starting lineup for the first time since December. A welcome sign that would be, and a good nugget of confidence La Dea can use to reignite the well-oiled machine that took Serie A by storm at the end of 2021. If Zapata is back we may witness two high-octane offenses duking it out to see who relents first. Without the burly Colombian, La Dea may have to dig deep into its bag of tricks once more to squeak on through to the semi-finals.
RB Leipzig Player to Watch- Christopher Nkunku
You can draw up a pretty good team of Paris Saint Germain rejects, and a dynamite offense with the like of Moussa Diaby and Leipzig’s very own Christopher Nkunku. The 24 year old Frenchman has come into his own this year putting away 27 goals across all competition, topping it off with a casual 14 assists. A unique combination of tidy footwork, great positioning in the box, and excellent shot placement, Nkunku acts as a swiss army knife for Leizpig’s dynamic offense – either feeding the target man in Andre Silva or being the target man for one of Leipzig’s many other playmakers. Its tough to pick just one Leipzig player to watch, nearly all of them can inflict pain, but its most likely that Nkunku will be the main man to target in Rasenball’s attack.
Atalanta Passione Predicted Starting XI
Its strange to create a tactic in which Duvan Zapata is leading the line, but boy does it feel good to do so! While Zapata’s insertion into the lineup may help to solve some problems up front, conveniently new problems are surfacing in the back. Rafael Toloi is still injured, but Atalanta can now add Berat Djimsiti to its list of casualties this year. Merih Demiral was also rumored to be nursing an injury after international break, but all intentions are pointing to him playing.
Which puts Gasperini in an interesting predicament – does he backfill the defense with Marten de Roon, or does he trust youngster Giorgio Scalvini in the most important match of his young career? Gasperini has shown that he will rely on de Roon in defense need be, and its likely that he calls upon the reliable and versatile Dutchman in such an important fixture.
I so wanted to include Joakim Maehle in the projected lineup. But with Atalanta visiting Leipzig for the first leg of the quarterfinals, there is a chance Gasperini opts for defensive security over offensive threat. Hans Hateboer and Davide Zappacosta have been poor offensively as of late, but this duo probably offers Atalanta the most defensive security.
Some Fun with Numbers
Atalanta often gets called the pressing machine of Italy, but no one on Atalanta’s squad equals the ruthlessness of Leipzig’s Konrad Leimer in the press. Granted Leimer has only played 10 matches in the Bundesliga this year, but no one comes close to his intensity on the pitch. In the top five leagues no one has has averaged more pressures per 90 minutes of defensive minutes than the Austrian. For the statistic nerds at home, his 80 pressures per 90 minutes of defense sits 4 standard deviations above the mean! For most normally distributed data sets, 2 standard deviations above the mean is already elite territory – now double it. For reference, Atalanta’s midfield trio averages about 40 pressures per 90 minutes of defense.
Hopefully with Duvan Zapata back, Teun Koopmeiners can slot back into his more naturally central midfield role, and with much anticipation. Adding onto my data dive from last week that demonstrated how infrequently Koopmeiners moves the ball forward as an attacker – he put forth one of his worst shifts against Napoli, statistically at least. His 65 yards of progressive passing against Napoli was his worst showing since November against Juventus, in which he only played four minutes.
Amazingly Duvan Zapata has not played European football since Atalanta’s exit in the Champion’s League. While he has not scored in months, he has scored in his last three Champion’s League matches – hopefully a good omen going forth for a team that has sorely needed his consistent offensive output.
All of Atalanta future Champion’s League eggs lie in the Europa League basket. There is no salvation in the league, so Atalanta must treat every Europa League match as a mini-championship. But in Atalanta’s case, the boys almost get the champion before the championship. Leipzig is one of the most complete teams Atalanta will face all year. Ever since Tedesco has taken over the squad, Leipzig has seemingly had Red Bull injected into its veins. Atalanta have played class opponents in the league this year, but no Italian side will test Gasperini’s squad as much as Leipzig with its modern take on the pressing game. Fortunately for La Dea, when everything is going well, no one in Italy has such a cosmopolitan take on the game than Atalanta. Let’s see if it comes to fruition, as always Forza Dea!!!
