Date: March 20, 2022
Time: 20:45 CET, 18:45 EST
A Quick Tale of the Tape
Atalanta: 7th place | 50 points | +19 GD | +15.8 xGD
Bologna: 13th place | 33 points | -11 GD | -8.6 xGD
Atalanta Looks to Avenge an Early Nil-Nil Draw
Do I have the statistic for you! I’ve been sitting on my hands for almost six months waiting to drop this, and I’m pumped to share it. In their collective histories Atalanta and Bologna have squared off 112 times. Atalanta has won 40 matches, Bologna has won 40 matches, and they have drawn 32 times. But the evenness doesn’t end there. Miraculously each squad has also scored 132 times in the matchups between them! Bang on, the game has a draw written all over it – in fact the next eight matches have draw written all of over it! How can the statistical gods mess up a stat line so balanced?
If Atalanta’s recent form in Serie A has anything to do with Sunday’s outcome, both squads may be looking at a 33 historical draws shared between them. A recent 0-0 draw against Genoa doesn’t deliver confidence to the Atalanta faithful, but somehow La Dea continue to deliver on the international stage. At this rate it feels like a coin flip to see which Atalanta team will don the field on Sunday. The one that put away five goals against Bologna last year, or the one that could barely muster a shot on target early in August? Regardless, Atalanta has dug itself into a hole that requires it to almost win out to have any shot at a top-4 finish. And a Bologna team that can scrap and fight with the best of them will guarantee that Sunday is anything but a Sunday drive.
Bologna Player to Watch – Aaron Hickey
The young Scotsman has had a coming out party this year in Emilia Romagna. The 19 year old took a bit of time to adjust to the mainland, but with four goals on the year from the left wing, and a first call-up to the national side, everything looks to be coming together for the youngster. His lethal range from distance must have Atalanta prudent during scraps and loose balls post-corner kick. Many of his chances have come from such situations. Even if he’s lineup up on the poorer-angled left side of the pitch, he can still bang a goal in.
Atalanta Passione’s Predicted XI
Atalanta absences: Duvan Zapata (injury), Josip Ilicic (personal), Aleksei Miranchuk (injury), Rafael Toloi (likely injury), Ruslan Malinovskyi (injury), Jeremie Boga (injury), Davide Zappacosta (yellow-card accumulation)
Rafael Toloi has not officially been listed as out (nor has Miranchuk for that matter), but his injury seemed too serious for him to overcome in a matter of days. Atalanta will likely have to rely on its other big three centerbacks, unless Gasperini trusts Scalvini the Tall – which is entirely possible and an exciting prospect.
Further up this match screams for a lineup scramble – save for the midfield. The Matteo Pessina project in the midfield was a science experiment gone wrong, so hopefully Gasperini opts for some stability in the middle with the tried and true midfield pairing.
Edit: Everything below is off the table now! Let’s just find three healthy bodies in attack at this point!
Up front its a grab bag of confusion. Its likely that Ruslan Malinovskyi and Luis Muriel could both use a rest, but it feels like one of them still needs to start. With Miranchuk assumed absent and my preference to not have Pessina near the pitch, it is almost compulsory that Malinovskyi starts. Especially with the international break coming up, and Ruslan unfortunately not partaking in international matches, he can probably afford to put a few more miles on his legs. Mario Pasalic has been not been in Gasperini’s plans as frequently, but Sunday feels like a good opportunity for him to try out his striker skills again. Especially if some nice crosses can come in that pins him aerially against the Chilean midget Gary Medel.
Some Fun with Numbers
Statistically and on the pitch, Bologna is about as bang average as one can be in the league. Bologna comfortably slots right in the middle of the pack on nearly any statistical measure of your choice. Stats include: goals per match, goals conceded per match, passes completed per match, big chances created, and shots on target.
Ruslan Malinovskyi has been unable to replicate this remarkable assist record from last year, but it arguably is not all his fault. With only one assist on the season, the forecasts have pegged him for over five assists this year – suggesting that Luis Muriel and Duvan Zapata have done him no favors upon receiving his passes. Interestingly Malinovskyi expected 0.34 assists/90 isn’t too far off from his astounding 0.47 assists/90 from last year. One or two more pristinely played passes, and this year’s average is right in line with where he was last year.
Giorgio Scalvini is the youngest player in Serie A to have at least two starts in the league this year. It looks like everyone else is finally taking notice of the 18 year old – even transfermarkt.com – who now has his value listen above $5M. Expect that value to continually climb.
Marko Arnautovic is tied for the Serie A lead in shots hitting the woodwork with five. Five clanks are currently keeping the Austrian away from double digits, but his ability to sniff around the goal cannot be understated this year. He must be watched.
Seeing Atalanta at 7th in the league just looks ugly. Yes they’re tied on points with Roma, and Lazio are barely ahead given Atalanta’s game in hand, but Atalanta could really use a pick-me-up in the league. Bologna’s recent stifling of Gian Piero Gasperini’s offense should be looming large in the minds of the players. This Bologna team is also not too far removed from the one that Atalanta put five past with relative ease, but ultimately this version of Valentina Mihajlovic’s team is much more robust defensively. The absence of Nicolas Dominguez in the middle of the pitch may add more space for Atalanta to work with, and we all know how important the center of the pitch is for Atalanta after Genoa all but took it away last time. Let’s get at it, and get back in the winning groove domestically! As always, Forza Dea!!!
