Date: February, 19 2020
Time: 15:00 EST
The time has finally come! Atalanta look to continue their historic run in the Champion’s League pairing up against La Liga foe Valencia CF. With the no one expecting Atalanta to even reach the knockout rounds, its remarkable that they’ve even made it to this junction, and with a favorable matchup against a relatively even opponent, La Dea have a very good chance of passing through to the final 8.
I wrote about Valencia and what to expect here, and nothing has changed in terms of what to expect from Valencia. They’ve been supremely up and down as of late, including a bad 4-1 loss to Mallorca, and a recent 2-2 draw against Atletico Madrid, which looks like a better result now given Atleti’s triumph over Liverpool. With the first leg being played on home ground for La Dea (well San Siro, but you get it), it gives them the opportunity to attack from the get go, and hopefully establish a good goal differential in the first leg.
Knowing Atalanta’s defense, minimizing away goals for Valencia will be key, and it will be interesting to see how Valencia line up and if they try to minimize damage and wait for the home leg. Save for a 3-0 against away at Shakhtar, Atalanta’s away performance was quite putrid in their other two away group matches against Dinamo and Manchester City. Overall their goal differential was -5 in their three away matches. Granted those two away losses were two of Atalanta’s three first ever Champion’s League matches, so use discretion when putting credence into that statistic as any indication of how Atalanta could perform in the away leg.
Oppositely to what Champion’s League form would suggest, Atalanta have been road warriors so far this season in Serie A, and will undoubtedly take the game to Valencia in both legs, similar to the Man City away fixture (albeit hopefully a different result). Knowing this Valencia can’t really afford to sit back away and bring their attack only at home. It is extremely likely that Atalanta can easily put in 1 or 2 goals away on the road, so it is probable that Valencia will push their midfielders a little further up, and not use a 2 defensive midfield setup that they had used in a few away matches during the Champion’s League group. How open the football will be is anyone’s guess, but it is still quite probable that Valencia will let Atalanta have the ball and hope to hit on neatly timed counters.
While the attack needs to do its thing, the defense will truly have to shine to minimize Valencia’s chances of netting multiple goals tomorrow. Gollini has been average lately, although he hasn’t had too many chances to make a true impact. Perhaps a big game player that shines when the spotlight is bright, Atalanta REALLY need the Gollini that showed up against Shakhtar to seal their advancement. Additionally, Palomino will need to continue his run of neutralizing number 9s. Dzeko got the better of him once against Roma last week (perhaps it was more Hateboer’s fault than his own), but overall he controlled Dzeko relatively well, especially for a guy as big and powerful as Edin. Rodrigo and Lopez aren’t nearly the size of Dzeko (or Lukaku for that matter), so speed instead of size will be what Palomino and company need to deal with all night.
Offensively, Atalanta will be fortunate to go against Valencia’s backup central defenders as both Paulista and Garay are injured, and most likely not going to be in the starting 11. Knowing that Zapata is slowly coming back from his thigh injury it will be interesting to see how Gasperini handles Zapata and Muriel’s playing time, and if in fact he decides to start Muriel over Zapata. Ultimately, playing against a weaker backline should give Papu Gomez and Ilicic all the motivation they need to feed the box. Goals have been continuing to come from unlikely places (with Palomino and Pasalic netting goals last week), so I fully expect Pasalic, Gosens, and either Hateboer or Castagne to continue moving forward to hopefully be on the opposite end of a Gomez killer ball.
Ultimately, being at home, Valencia’s current form, and their defensive depth; it looks good for Atalanta to take something from this game. Although, this is still uncharted territory for La Dea. They were obviously shellshocked early on in the groups, so hopefully the knockouts don’t provide the same level of issue and misery. Mental fortitude will be key, and I’m confident they’ve figured Champion’s League out, especially the speed of the game they don’t usually get in Serie A. Mentally they now know what the Champion’s League is all about; and with a cohesive team effort, especially defensively, I feel confident in Atalanta’s chances in the home leg of one of the most important games in their history. As always, Forza Atalanta!
