With less than a week before the start of the season it feels like there are still way too many unanswered questions surrounding so many clubs in Serie A – including our own Atalanta. There’s no conclusion on a variety of Atalanta’s transfer rumors, so I’m fully aware that this preview can be obsolete as soon as I hit publish – but let’s try anyway.
After three consecutive season finishing in third place, on paper Atalanta looks poised to put in a proper Scudetto challenge. Several of Atalanta’s main competitors- including Milan and Inter – have lost key pieces to their rotations, and every “Top 7” club, bar Atalanta and Milan, are working with a new coach. With a starting XI that has had little in the change of rotation, Atalanta’s cohesion will be its biggest asset in the all-important first half of the season.
Atalanta’s Top 3 Priorities This Season
1. Avoid An Uneven Start To The Season
In Atalanta’s last three seasons, the club has had its challenges avoiding an early rough spell – forcing it to play catchup in the second half of the year. Below are the percentage of points earned by Atalanta in the first half of the last three seasons.
2018/2019 – 59%
2019/2020 – 55%
2020/2021 – 54%
The gap between first and second half of the season isn’t huge, but it is not insignificant. Especially when point totals that separated the 2nd through 5th placed clubs last year was less than three, each point earned is paramount. Last year in gamedays four through nine, Atalanta earned 5 out of 15 points, effectively putting the club out of a reasonable chance to challenge for the Scudetto. A similar stretch would do the same, so consistency becomes the name of hte game for Atalanta – and is the only thing keeping the club from real Scudetto contenders.
Additionally, balancing the Champion’s League group stage with the Serie A season will hinge on the the success of Atalanta’s depth. Losing Hateboer for two months stings, and the pending doom of losing Zapata should have Atalanta furiously working the phones to fill out the rest of the squad. Beyond needing Koopmeiners to supplant de Roon during his suspension, bringing in a backup for Joakim Maehle and potentially Luis Muriel will be challenging with only two weeks left in the deadline. Even with relatively little squad turnover, how Atalanta addresses these last few depth moves could make or break the autumn stretch and overall season outcome.
2. Can Atalanta Replace Cristian Romero?
Cashing in on Cristian Romero was smart business – even if he was Atalanta’s best defenders (and perhaps the best in the league last year). All of Atalanta’s reinforcements so far have come on the defensive end, but will it be enough? Both Matteo Lovato and Merih Demiral are capable Serie A defenders, but can they up their games even further to reach Romero’s level? I don’t think Lovato will be called upon to become an immediate starter – so he will have time to adjust to the system and figure out how he slots into the Atalanta defense.
Demiral, on the other hand, will be the key cog in the defensive wheel. His no nonsense defense style is very similar to Romero; therefore, all signs indicate that he should be a capable replacement. Nevertheless, Demiral does come with question marks. Firstly, how will his ball playing work in Atalanta’s system that requires centerbacks to be decent ballplayers. He wasn’t great with his distribution at Juventus, but I did see some positives in his passing ability in Atalanta’s most recent friendly to at least give off the notion that he can do enough with the ball at his feet. Perhaps being in the middle of a back three will permit him to see the whole field, giving him more passing options, and to not be squeezed out by the touchline
But most importantly, will he stay healthy? Romero, I don’t believe, suffered any knocks last year, and Demiral has been hit by the injury bug significantly the last several years. It’s impossible to predict, and we can only hope that health is on his side this year. If Demiral stays healthy, he should be able to raise his game to become a formidable sheriff in the middle of the back three.
Even if Demiral and Lovato aren’t the same caliber of a defender as Romero, the depth brought in makes the unit stronger as a whole. Going five deep at the back with Toloi, Demiral, Djimsiti, Palomino, and Lovato – plus a substantial upgrade at keeper with Juan Musso – makes the defense as a unit much more well-rounded. Remember, as good as Romero was last year, Atalanta still only gave up one less goal last year than in 2019/2020. Juan Musso undoubtedly being the number one keeper brings needed stability at a position that was often influx for Atalanta last year – and should further help to offset the loss of Romero.
3. Does Atalanta Have Enough Midfield Depth?
By now everyone is fully aware of the Teun Koopmeiners drama and all the waffling that has ensued with his potential transfer. The closer we inch to the transfer deadline, it seems less and less likely that Atalanta will land the 23 year-old AZ captain. On one hand it feels ridiculous that AZ and Atalanta cannot come to an agreement to close the 3M euro gap between the clubs, the counter argument can be made that Atalanta would be paying a high fee and salary for a player that would feature minimally in the starting XI.
Last season Marten de Roon and Remo Freuler led the club in Serie A matches played (at 35 and 34 respectively). Both players are rarely injured, have insane stamina, and are the midfield staples of the current Atalanta dynasty. I’m not saying this is a reason not to look for a replacement, sometimes you gotta plan earlier than planned to get an eventual successor, but it is fair to question how much playing time Koopmeiners would actually receive if he came to Atalanta. The thinking, as much of a letdown as it is to me, may be that Mario Pasalic is a sufficient backup until Atalanta is forced to react with a new signing once either de Roon or Freuler starts to show signs of slowing down.
Personally I think this would be a risky and detrimental strategy. Pasalic is way too streaky to play in a position that requires incredible consistency. We’ll find out soon enough this season, with de Roon out the first four matches, if Pasalic is up for the task. I think we know what Pasalic is at this point, but perhaps he has one more level in him that he hasn’t reached yet. A lot is riding on the Croatian this year, so much so that I still think a backup is necessary, even if said backup wouldn’t be asked to be a starter.
Some Predictions
These are my three big keys to the season, and all three of these points have to go in La Dea’s favor to see her conceivably challenge for a Scudetto. A lot of other story lines will still impact the season: can Malinovskyi repeat his breakout?, can Muriel lead a line if Zapata leaves?, do we get an acceptable wingback to cover for Hateboer’s injury? – so a lot needs to go right for Atalanta to pull off the unthinkable. I’m not ready to call out a season prediction yet, but there are some fun props that I’ll actively track as the season unfolds:
Top Goalscorer – Luis Muriel
Top Assistman – Ruslan Malinovskyi
Breakout Player – Matteo Pessina
Biggest Disappointment – Aleksey Miranchuk
Matches Started by Demiral (Serie A) – 25
Matches Started by Ilicic (Serie A) – 12
Most Yellow Cards – Berat Djimsiti
Robin Gosens Over/Under Goals – 9.5 goals
How Many Italians Score This Year – 3 (Pessina, Pezzella, Toloi)
More Starts at Right Back – Joakim Maehle (even when Hateboer is healthy)
Matches with a Back Four – 5
Gasperini Red cards – 3
Does Atalanta Score More Goals Than Last Year (90)? No
Does Atalanta Concede Less Goals Than Last Year (47)? Yes
Brace yourselves as Torino will be here before we know it. Good luck this season! Serie A should be a blast and a bloodbath in the Top 7, and with another Champion’s League campaign coming, we’ll have plenty of weekday football to keep us busy all fall and winter. Let’s gear up for an awesome ride, and Forza Dea!!
