Date: May 12, 201
Time: 15:45 CET
FiveThirtyEight Predictions:
Atalanta Victory- 80%
Benevento Victory- 7%
Draw- 13%
Six points, yes just six points, secures Atalanta a top 4 finish. And there’s no better time than now to make that a reality. With struggling Benevento midweek, we can just taste those Champion’s League group stages again, but we better not admire the cake in the oven for too long, just for it to get burnt. We’ve got too much work to do still. Fortunately, similar to Parma, Benevento’s recent form has been woeful; garnering a whopping 1 point in it’s last 5 matches, while plummeting down the Serie A table. Pippo’s side is in serious risk of relegation, and will be fighting tooth and nail to somehow eclipse Cagliari and Spezia as the season winds down. Playing teams in relegation scraps is always a dangerous proposition- we saw what happened to Napoli against Cagliari. Similarly, Atalanta cannot afford to take Benevento lightly, as both team’s fates rely so heavily on this fixture. Atalanta have the form, but Benevento’s back is up against the ledge – let’s just kick them over the edge and be done with it.
Ilicic Comes To Take A Bow
Josip Ilicic arguably had his best match of the season against Benevento in the first fixture, twisting and turning Benevento’s defense in all sorts of directions – eventually creating a warlock pretzel. Ilicic only played 45 minutes against Parma, and my guess is to give him sufficient rest to lead the attack against Benevento. Malinovskyi’s brilliance aside, Josip is probably still causing Benevento’s backline nightmares. I’ve rarely said it until now, but I think this is a match where Josip needs to start and get Atalanta on a good platform from the get-go. Save Ruslan for Genoa, who we have a VERY difficult time dissecting, and let Nonna discombobulate Inzaghi’s side.
The Wingback Question
I thought Sunday was a fantastic offensive clinic by Maehle, who was able to put in one of his best offensive performances of the year. Not just getting into dangerous positions, but he had a shot that nearly went in, and his dribbling and ball skill is quite good for a wingback- night and day with Hateboer who is a pure engine/thoroughbred. Maehle did play the full 90 on Sunday, so a logical lineup would be Gosens and Hateboer both starting. I still think this is our best lineup on the wings, until Maehle can iron out some defensive issues, but if we’re in desperate need of a goal and some trickery out on the wing to beat out their low block, I would not be hesitant to throw the Dane out there to offset Hateboer’s limitations on the ball.
Expect An Open Match
Benevento is three points from safety right now (perhaps four, as I’m unsure who owns the tiebreaker between them and Spezia). Therefore, a draw will not due. They will need goals, and probably plenty of them in order to secure three points. Seeing some sort of variant of the final fifteen minutes of the Parma match would not surprise me in the least. Benevento must get forward, which fortunately for Atalanta means a wide open match with minimal defense to go up against. It feels like a perfect game for Muriel, as he’s so good in advantageous counters that a brace feels like it could be in the cards. Regardless of how many goals Benevento scores, I don’t see Atalanta scoring less than three.
However on the flip side, with Benevento in attack mode, it means the defense must be on it’s toes. No lackadaisical play in the final third, no losing markers, and certainly no dumb penalties in the box to give Benevento easy goals. In a match such as this I don’t think Atalanta will struggle to get shots on target, and the foundation of the match should be to ensure the defense is well grounded and then build the attack out of that. A few quick strikes on the counter could put Benevento to bed early, but that only comes to fruition if Romero, Palomino, and Djimsiti are all in unison. There are some things to iron out after the Parma match, but I do feel it’s good to get those duds out of the way- and hopefully awareness will be much higher as a result of these errors. Three points here, and then we’re one victory away from salvation (unless Juventus can muster less than three points against a dangerous Sassuolo side, making our road even easier). Fortunately La Dea is in the driver’s seat and controls it’s own destiny. A great place to be. Gasperini has reiterated time and time again on the difficulty of these matches, and I envision the players echo his sentiment. No one will take it easy until the 90 minutes comes to a close, and if Gasperini’s game plan comes to fruition – seeing three points on the other end should not be a surprise. As always, Forza Dea!!!
