Date: May 9, 2021
Time: 15:00 CET
FiveThirtyEight Predictions:
Atalanta Victory- 74%
Parma Victory- 10%
Draw- 16%
Five matches to go, and the clogged fixture schedule takes off once again. With five matches in two weeks (including the Coppa Italia final), a battle tested Atalanta team will look to finish off the last month of the season with a relatively fortunate build-up before the games become hot and heavy. No offense to Parma – who’ve already been – relegated, but a club that has unfortunately been a staple of Serie A for so long will have to muster up a whole lot of gumption to challenge La Dea. Parma has not won since mid March against Roma (how did that happen?!?), and have lost five straight. Remember, this was all before relegation. I don’t know the mentality of your average Serie A player, but I envision getting up to playing the spoiler when you already know your club is descending down the rungs of the Italian latter must be incredibly challenging. Parma has been able to muster 9 goals during its 5 game losing streak (though 6 came against Crotone and Cagliari), so Atalanta cannot treat this game as a walk in the park, and have to be amped from the get go to put away Parma as soon as possible.
Defense
There have been doubts about Rafael Toloi and Joakim Maehle’s fitness, so it is quite possible that both right sided players don’t feature in this match. Hans Hateboer could not have come back at a better time – and while his first two starts post injury have not been fantastic, he still has his stamina and speed to cause opponents issues as he continues to get his technique back up to speed. Knowing the opponent, wouldn’t mind getting Sutalo some playing time, probably not starting, but I think he could do with a confidence boost, and another look to see if the scouting department struck out with the young Croatian. I had previously been a bit vocal about my apprehension about Romero playing on the right hand side – thinking that it diminishes his defensive influence on the match and he is not nearly as astute as going forward tactically as Toloi or Djimsiti (although he is excellent going forward when adrenaline takes over). The Parma match may be the perfect opportunity to get him some comfort being more of a ball player and attacker, as that is the next step of his game that he needs to work on to be a complete Gasperini centerback (not that I’m complaining about anything he’s ever done – he’s still been fantastic!)
Midfield
Five games in fourteen days means that all of our runners need to be appropriately utilized and rested. Pessina, de Roon, and Freuler have done so much running this year, it almost feels like this is an opportunity to give one of them a reprieve. Pessina has had minimal minutes the last three matches, so I would not be surprised to see him slot into the double pivot to spell either Freuler or de Roon. Which then opens up the question, who starts up front? Is this a start for Ilicic and Pasalic? I hate taking Malinovskyi off the pitch, because he’s just been so good. Preferably, I’d like to see Malinovskyi and Pasalic, then save Malinovskyi for Genoa who will be MUCH tougher to dismantle. Pasalic has played very little recently, but he does feast off of weaker clubs (5 goals last year against Brescia), and always looks to be good for a rebound goal in a match which should provide Atalanta with plenty of opportunities to shoot. The stamina of the midfield will be a concern, and Gasperini does need to manage his men’s minutes well. The last thing we need is a less than 100% Freuler and de Roon against Juventus when everything is on the line in 10 days time.
Attack
After Muriel’s botched penalty, I think it is a no brainer to start Zapata in attack. Let Muriel collect his thoughts midweek for Benevento, and let Zapata go to work on a frail Parma back line. Parma has let in the 2nd most goals in Serie A this year (behind only bottom feeders Crotone), so Atalanta should not have any issue carving up Bruno Alves and his defense. Zapata is only one goal off of 15 in Serie A this season, which would make three consecutive 15 goal seasons for the big Colombian – and a huge testament to how he has flourished under Gasperini’s system. Not much else to say. A quick and large lead would be nice to get Sam Lammers some real minutes, as we’ve let him just wither on the bench this year.
With Milan and Juventus lining up this weekend, it’s guaranteed that at least one club in the Top 4 drops points. Let’s just not make us one of the clubs to make it two. Honestly it would be great if Milan and Juventus could draw, giving Atalanta a 2 point advantage plus the tiebreaker (assuming Atalanta will take the tiebreaker over Milan), and a much stronger chance that holding onto that Top 4 position. FiveThirtyEight has Atalanta at a 93% chance to finish Top 4, but why don’t I feel that comfortable about it, haha? Statistics versus emotion, blah blah blah, let’s just throw all of them out the window, and go out and get three points we cannot afford to lose! As always Forza Dea!!!
