After Gollini’s mindless and stupefying red card against Sassuolo, it unfortunately opened up a plethora of debates about who should man the net for Atalanta – not only this year, but looking forward. On the surface Gollini looks to be the superior option. Your eye would tell you that he is in control of his area better, he distributes the ball well, and is superior on 1 vs. 1 opportunities. Your eye would also tell you that Sportiello is a better pure shot stopper who fits more of the mold of a classic old school keeper.
Have Our Eyes Deceived Us?
Gollini’s apparent superior contributions as an outfield player always forced me to give him the nod over our two keepers who have seen significant minutes this year. He just looks more comfortable with the ball at his feet, but a deeper dive into some numbers, suggests that this may not necessarily be the case. Keep in mind, that all of the following graphs are comparing two players with uneven amounts of playing time, although there is sufficient data to at least use the numbers as a good baseline. In addition, all of my data comes from fbref.com (one part of the family of sporting networks that has given me hours and hours of statistical joy for the past twenty years).
Distribution
Amazingly, Gollini and Sportiello grade out remarkably similar when it comes to distributing the ball. While Sportiello may not provide the level of comfort at the back that Gollini does, his output is equal or perhaps even better than our rapper by night.
When kicking deep both Gollini, and Sportiello are neck and neck. There’s nothing really to look at here as their rates are so similar and there are probably enough data points for this figure to have stabilized. In fact besides Szczesny, Sepe, and Silvestri at the bottom there isn’t a whole lot of difference between most players, and everyone in the middle of the pack is more or less similar in this regard. However where it starts to get interesting is the the frequency in which a keeper opts for the long ball instead of playing out of the back. Observe:
Much to my surprise, Sportiello not only opts to hoof it up the field less frequently than the Gollini, he is actually quite high up the keeper list to most likely to play the ball short. Seeing his name around the likes of Andrea Consigli who is all but instructed to not kick it deep seems like pretty good confirmation that Sportiello is able and relatively comfortable playing out of the back need be. Granted he can make some horrible decisions (hello Real Madrid) with his back passes, but those are few and far between to judge a player on the quality of his passing.
Command of the Area
Positional domination is so key, and can lead to much fewer headaches with a keeper that can dominate his area. The Torino goal right before halftime is a perfect example of the infuriating nature of a ball that was not promptly corralled and afforded the time and space to bounce around. This one surprised me, as Gollini always seemed much more aware of his zone, but in fact this year both him and Sportiello grade out quite similarly. I don’t know everything that goes into this stat (like if a defender heads a ball away is it counted), but its the exact opposite of what I’d have expected. Gollini has been one of the worst this year, perhaps its a cavalier nature, but seeing him third to last doesn’t exude confidence.
Outfield Play
This ties back into distribution, but the distance a keeper is from his own net can suggest how willing a keeper is to offer outfield assistance from his post. Naturally teams that press higher will have keepers higher up the pitch, as well as teams that have keepers that play well with their feet. Again, Sportiello surprises the world:
Gollini and Sportiello are close, which makes sense in Gasperini’s system; but never in my mind would I expect Sportiello to lead this category. It’s not the most telling statistc, but provides more affirmation that Sportiello is more than just a hoofer.
So What Does All of This Mean?
To me it confirms two things: don’t always trust your eyes, and remember to take statistics with a grain of salt. There isn’t a whole lot of context behind these statistics – and without isolated incidents to establish a baseline, these statistics can merely be used as guidelines. Yet, as guidelines they are still eye-opening. I still think Gollini is much better at 1 vs. 1 opportunities (unfortunately I had no data to confirm this), and Sportiello is still a better classic shot stopper. What I did change my mind on is that Gollini is superior to Sportiello at other aspects of a goal keeper’s game. And unfortunately neither is the greatest solution going forward – given that Gollini’s other attributes don’t put him on a pedestal above Sportiello, let alone other keepers in Serie A.
There have been rumors linking Gollini to Roma, so we may have to do some shopping of our own, so who would/could we buy? Based on the statistics above I’ll give two options in Serie A, and two options abroad:
Serie A:
– Alessio Cragno: similar distibution numbers to Atalanta’s keepers, but better commanding his area and shot stopper
– Juan Musso: best at commanding his area in Serie A, and also elite at shot stopping
Both Cragno and Musso are valued above Gollini on Transfermarkt by about $4M, so Atalanta would have to be certain that they provide more value than what the statistics here show
Europe:
-Gregor Kobel, VfB Stuttgart: Rarely hoofs the ball out of the back, average in the Bundesliga on covering crosses, and is a good shot stopper (much more affordable option valued at $8.8M).
-Walter Benitez, OGC Nice: A lot of French teams look to play out of the back, and Benitez is no exception. He also has the shot stopping chops, and command of his area to back it up (plus he’s much more affordable than his countryman in Musso at an $11M valuation).
I was previously on the fence on whether Atalanta needed a new keeper, and I think this sealed it for me. Neither Sportiello or Gollini do anything great, and this is starting to creep up time and time again for a club that is now consistently competing for European places. There are certainly players that can replicate their skills, and the narrow gap between Sportiello and Gollini demonstrates, to me, that if they are a wash – how good really is Gollini? Can he be a keeper that leads us to a surprise Scudetto run in the future? More and more I’m leaning towards the no category, and hope the Atalanta scouting department has its next keeper scouted and in the wings.
