Saying that the race to finish Top 4 in Italy is close is the understatement of the year. Clubs placed 2nd through 5th are all within two points of each other, and the table has been topsy-turvy for the last month with a whole lot of leapfrogging going on. Fortunately for Atalanta, La Dea sit alone at 2nd in the table, and at least have a little bit of breathing room over its nearest competitoin. While FiveThirtyEight stills gives La Dea a 96% of passing through to the Champion’s League next year, it feels much closer than that – because what do computers know about guts, glory, pain, and suffering?!?
Momentum is on La Dea’s side and a relatively “easy” end to the season is all well and good, but the club still has to finish out games. Focus must be the upmost priority now, and dropping points against the likes of Benevento and Genoa can be disastrous for the Bergamaschi. So to assuage some doubt, let looks through the remaining schedules for the five teams clawing it out for three open spots, and put some uneasiness to rest, at least for a little.
Lazio
After convincingly beating Milan at home, Lazio still have a game in hand that can get them move them further up the table if the match goes their way. However, Torino is dangerous, and fighting tooth and nail in a relegation scrap. But ultimately Lazio’s schedule isn’t the most daunting on paper. Roma and Sassuolo are the toughest opponents left, but the club that has been best at home this year has four home matches left (and technically five with Roma being one of their away fixtures). After Monday’s convincing victory and recent stellar form, seeing them leapfrog a scuffling team in the 66 point cluster would not surprise me, but it would take an awful lot for the Biancocelesti to jump two more teams into the top 4. But you never know, nothing screams that they cannot take 18 points from their remaining six matches, it would just be an awfully tough ask.
Milan
The Winter Champions have fallen on hard times during the season of regrowth. With two straight losses, Milan need to regroup to prevent a freefall, and have to do it against one of the more challenging schedules of the Top 6. A match against Juventus will be monumental for both teams, and our very own La Dea could be the club that keeps them in 5th place at the end of the year. In addition, their remaining other three opponents are all desparate for points including both Torino and Cagliari sides that feel much more mid-table than their records would indicate. Without Zlatan, and a toothless Rebic and Leao, Atalanta needs to do a rain-dance to the penalty gods again to cement themselves in Champion’s League.
Juventus
The Old Lady, also on the brink of freefall, don’t have any real favors in their final schedule. A match against eventual Scudetto winner Inter – as well as the aforementioned Milan duel – are the highlights of their remaining fixtures. But don’t overlook Udinese and Sassuolo on the road. Udinese are tough as nails at home (who probably won’t win but can easily earn a draw), and Sassuolo has won four straight matches, and would probably love to overtake Roma for 7th in the league to earn European football next year. Continuously looking lost, especially against Fiorentina, Juventus still seem like they have one last trick up their sleeve to survive, albeit just barely.
Napoli
Napoli arguably have the easiest remaining schedule of any of the teams being discussed. A scuffle against Cagliari next weekend may be their best chance to drop points, although Napoli’s form has been quite good even since losing midweek to Juventus several weeks back. An away match against Fiorentina in the twilight of the season could be tricky if Fiorentina “Fiorentina” and find themselves desperately needing points to stay up, but that is probably the only other match that could give Napoli trouble. As much as I like Verona, they’ve been toothless the last month, and don’t offer enough attack to overcome the inevitable goals Napoli will likely score.
Atalanta
Arguably the 2nd easiest schedule remaining schedule, the final match of the year could be very spicy for both clubs. Hopefully by this time, Atalanta has sewn up the points needed to qualify for 4th, but there are still some roadblocks on the schedule that could get in their way for making the last month a walk in the park. Besides the additional Coppa Italia fixture against Juventus, Atalanta has Sassuolo next weekend. Sassuolo has won four straight, but hasn’t been dynamic in their current run of form, with a top goal scoring effort of three in the match against Fiorentina. Atalanta has really bullied Sassuolo the last two years, with de Zerbi’s insistence of playing out of the back, but I still think it’s a matter of time before their apparent quality comes to the forefront against Atalanta’s and I’m erring more on a nailbiter than a walk in the park next weekend. Additionally, Genoa has kind of been La Dea’s kryptonite as well. For a below average team in the league, Genoa surely cause La Dea too many problems than they should, and only a late Zapata strike in extra-time has gotten them a win in its last three chances over the Football and Cricket club. Genoa, fortunately, struggle to score so hopefully Atalanta can end their weird run of form against a club they should be handling quite easily.
Recap
It really is going to be an epic final month with very few fixtures between the top teams to narrow out the point pool. Asides from Juventus and Milan, teams do not overlap each other until the final matchday with La Dea and Milan. Thus it comes down to doing your own dirty work and not relying on the help of others. This is the way it should be, and current form and mentality will eventually win out. The standings as they are now would not surprise me, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Napoli and Atalanta flip flop; nor would it surprise me to see Lazio and Milan have an interesting battle for 5th. Regardless it’s going to be fire, and while La Dea have a 96% chance of finishing Top 4, I wish I could share that confidence.
Each passing match will help to ease the nerves, but there’s too much on the line to feel comfortable until consistent three points show up on the score sheet. Doing our business against Parma, Benevento, and Genoa is a great start. 77 points probably gets the job done, but an even 80 would make me even happier – with just a laugher on the last match day of the year where Sam Lammers may even start. Again – one game at a time – and as Conte has continually said that each match is like playing for a Scudetto at Inter, Atalanta needs to treat each match in the same way. Never underestimate any opponent, especially the ones clawing to stay up in Serie A, and show the same ruthlessness demonstrated against Bologna – there’s no time for mercy now. No more dropping points in games that should’ve been sewn up! I’ve got confidence in the boys, keep working hard, and playing the team football that go you all there in the first place. Forza Dea!!!
