Date: April 25, 2021
Time: 14:45 CET
FiveThirtyEight Predictions-
Atalanta Victory: 74%
Bologna Victory: 9%
Draw: 17%
They say the living well is the best revenge. I don’t know how that really applies to football, so we’ll go with revenge is a dish best served cold – hopefully cold being the ice-water running through the veins of our strikers capitalizing after a shambolic finishing display on Thursday. Atalanta’s draw right before the Christmas at the hands of two avoidable Bologna second half goals still stings, and right now is the only difference between La Dea claiming 2nd place, and sitting tied for 3rd with Juventus. A second draw of the year against a Bologna club firmly squashed in the midtable no man’s land is unacceptable at this point. Just look at FiveThirtyEight’s expectations – a 74% win percentage chance! That is a huge margin, in my estimation 10-15 points too high, but everyone from the basement-hiding nerd to the layman expects an Atalanta victory. Bologna’s only significant victory has come against Lazio this year – nearly two months ago – and while the Rossoblu have some interesting pieces, it seems much more like a club of individuals rather than anything that’s resembles pure cohesion. Orsolini teeters back and forth between form, and the rat-tailed wonder Rodrigo Palacio has only one goal to his name while playing in nearly 70% of his club’s minutes. Atalanta need to attack hard and often, and put the horrendous finishing against Roma behind them. As the club just found out, the most dangerous thing is letting a team linger in the shadows of a waning game.
If formation bets were available on Bet365, I’d put a pretty penny on Atalanta going four at the back. Robin Gosens is suspended for his silly double yellow card on Thursday, and with Hateboer still not ready, we’re back to the same problem of who helps out Maehle. In fact, I’d wager that both Toloi and Djimsiti will spell the Dane and act as “fullbacks” similar to the Verona match. I was wrong in my formation prediction Roma, so it seems like Sassuolo/Verona level may be the level when Gasperini opts to employ his back four trump card. I like the additional midfielder as well to provide more pressure on one of Bologna’s stronger positions with Schouten (check the scouting report!), Svanberg, and Poli all capable central midfielders. With Romero and Palomino both back in action, their speed should be able to handle the pace of Orsolini and Barrow (not to mention Romero’s physicality to force the duo into submission). In addition, the absence of Takehiro Tomiyasu (the Japanese Toloi) is still out injured and removes any attacking threat that Bologna may throw out from their backline.
Offensively a back four also affords us the use of either both Colombians or a flashing of Miranchuk or Kovalenko (I did give the nod to both of them in my podcast). I’ve reached my breaking point with Ilicic – not because of his play, but his piss-poor attitude (I seriously think he has an agenda against Maehle. So without Ilicic, it would be awesome to see an Eastern-bloc attempt with Lesha-Malinokvskyi-Kovalenko lining up from right to left. After Thursday’s disaster of a performance, I’d say Muriel needs to get a start and quickly forget the worst match he’s had in an Atalanta shirt. He has a knack for scoring against the Rossoblu, and can probably run circles around a shaky Soumaoro and stiff-legged Danilo. Muriel hasn’t scored in three matches (shocker!) so let’s get the Costeño back on track against a defense that has a chance to be sieve like against Atalanta’s attack.
I felt worried prior to writing this article, but putting everything in front of me on paper has eased my apprehensions. Atalanta just have to defend on the counter against Orsolini, but more so Barrow who can really do wonderful things with his right foot if afforded time. Romero needs to put an aggressive shift in on him, and if so I think it neutralizes Bologna’s most dangerous attacking option. Route One football can always be an adventure with Atalanta, especially if no true wingbacks are playing, but everything should be leading to Atalanta peppering Bologna’s goal with shots. Let’s just hoped the players learned to shoot low instead of chest high between Thursday and Sunday. Let’s go get what’s ours, and as always Forza Dea!
