Date: April 22, 2021
Time: 18:30 CET
FiveThirtyEight Predictions:
Atalanta Victory: 50%
Roma Victory: 26%
Draw: 24%
Milan have lost midweek; thus a draw means 2nd place is Atalanta’s with a win. But the victory is anything but easy. Roma – the last remaining Italian representative in European competitions – are still within striking distance to make it back to Europe and play spoiler in the twilight of the Serie A season. However, Roma does have the most clogged schedule remaining for Italian clubs and most be cognizant rotation wise with another midweek fixture coming up next week against Manchester United. It shouldn’t force too much of a lineup change for Thursday, but with the Europa League being Roma’s most realistic shot at the Champion’s League, it is very possible the player’s minds will be in two places as once. We know what this kind of mentality did to Atalanta in the UCL group stages, so perhaps we can capitalize on a similar mentality.
On the AtalantaPOD I had the fortunate opportunity to interview Chiesa di Totti’s very own Steve Schiavello, who provided a great insight into how he sees the match playing out. I highly recommend giving his interview a listen (around the 25 minute mark is when the interview starts), as he provides a very clear picture on our opponent – more so than I can offer in several hundred words. Please see the link here on Buzzsprout.
For Atalanta the key is getting on the front foot from the get go. Atalanta conceded within minutes in the Christmas match, and if not from a stormer of a second half from Josip Ilicic, the match could’ve been a lot closer than the final 4-1 score. Starting poorly hasn’t been a real issue for La Dea since the Udinese match in January, and I envision such mental lapses will not be an issue for the squad. The big question will be are we going to see the back three or the back four? Roma is the classic tweener opponent to test the hypothesis if Gasperini will use the back four against clubs in which he wants to put on an even more of an attacking threat. Roma is just dangerous enough offensively to make Gasperini have to think about his decision making, and his choice of defensive set-up may confirm his future tactical decisions. Personally I prefer to see Atalanta go with another back four – as it offers the chance to start both Colombians and then have Ilicic come off the bench for one of them and hopefully replicate one of the best halves of football we’ve seen this year (as long as Malinovskyi gets the starting nod!)
A victory against Roma would be the icing on the cake for one of the most challenging runs of games in the Serie A season for Atalanta. Two matches in four days against top-7 opponents is a pretty unforgiving schedule, and to come away with six points from an effort would not only be a fantastic result, but probably all but ice Atalanta’s participation in the Champion’s League again next season. Nine wins in ten suggests Atalanta was one of the hottest clubs in Italy, and with hot players both at the back and up front, the boys should be up for the challenge! Let’s go may 2nd place our own, and as always Forza Dea!
