Date: April 18, 2021
Time: 15:00 CET
Location: Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo, Lombardy
FiveThirtyEight Predictions:
Atalanta Win: 44%
Juventus Win: 32%
Draw: 24%
Sunday is nigh upon us, and it feels like the outcome of this essential clash will pave the way for how the rest of the Serie A upper echelon battle plays out. Atalanta and Juventus have been matched up in some hotly contested battles over the last few years, but this match just feels different. Juventus are teetering on the point of a clean-sweep both within management and player personnel; oppositely Atalanta have quietly cruised to eight wins in its last nine Serie A matches. Amazingly the acne-riddled FiveThirtyEight computers predict Atalanta as favorites. To a human brain this seems wild, but slightly defensible. Childish and tantrumatic Cristiano Ronaldo is getting older physically but going all Benjamin Button in terms of mental capacity as he freefalls mentally towards toddlerism, prone to tantrums and becoming a more and more insular figure on the squad (Robin Gosens must be thanking his lucky stars he never got his authentic CR7 jersey in case some of the bad juju made its way into the Atalanta locker room)!
This cannot be anything but bad for a clubhouse that is already on the brink of a potential shake-up. But still when you have current world beaters in Juan Cuadrado and Federico Chiesa it’s foolhardy to think the nine straight Scudetto winners cannot pull something out of this match. Especially with Cristian Romero out for Atalanta; Berat, Rafa, and Jose will have to be on point. They obviously can do on their day – Atalanta didn’t finish third in the league last year in spite of them. I’m expecting a dog fight, and with both clubs desperately seeking three points, we may have one of the most epic battles of the year upon on us this Sunday.
Up front Atalanta received great news that Matteo Pessina is COVID free and available for the starting XI. This cannot be underestimated given the brilliance Matteo has given us in the defensive oriented trequartista role. His peskiness should make it more challenging for Juve’s defense to distribute the ball out to their playmakers, and hopefully allows Atalanta to spend more time dishing out passes in Juventus’s half of the pitch. With Pessina, Freuler, and de Roon smothering the Juventus midfield – it gives us a better chance of winning the middle of the pitch (much more so than if Pasalic had to be thrust into the starting XI over the Monza native).
Even further up front Duvan Zapata has quietly been shaping into some nice form over the past month. With 4 goals in his last 3 games, the big Colombian is hopefully heating up at the right time to help make the offense even more prolific. While I still want Duvan to learn a bit more finesse (I did forget he displayed some cheekiness against Verona), he can give Juventus’s ever changing back line loads of problems, especially with Malinovskyi continuing to pepper pass after pass into the box. The Demiral/de Ligt versus Duvan battle will be where the game is won. If Duvan can occupy both centerbacks, it opens up everything else from flying wingbacks, to Malinovskyi cracking shots, to 2nd half Ilicic curlers.
Defenisvely the absence of Romero is enormous, and is probably a big enough miss for Atalanta to revert to a back three after playing the last three matches with four at the back. The speed of Cuadrado and specifically Chiesa will be too much to handle for Toloi at the back, requiring Maehle to come in to provide support with pace. Chiesa has recently been a dagger for Atalanta – along with most of the other clubs in Serie A – and it would be foolhardy to force Toloi to man-mark one of the quickest players in the league- especially when he has shown chinks in the armor staying up to pace with no other than Lithuanian nationals. No hate on Toloi, but Atalanta needs its fastest players in the lineup to help make up for the absence of Romero. Palomino has been a recent boulder in the back for Atalanta, and with a classic setup with Toloi and Djimsiti flanking el vaquero, Atalanta should have enough coverage to fend off a less pacey Ronaldo, Morata, and Kulusevski attack.
As much hate as Juventus has gotten this year, with every Zebra fan thinking the sky is falling, it is not reality – I guess none straight Championships would spoil nearly any fanbase! But with a victory on Sunday, Atalanta can make the sky look a little bit closer to the rafters of Allianz Stadium. Earning places two through four will be cutthroat for the rest of the season, and the results that come next week will set the template for what Atalanta need to do to see themselves through to the Champion’s League for a third straight year. A victory against Juventus is a huge start in the right direction. Even a tie holds the status quo, but then puts even more pressure on La Dea to win midweek against an up and down Roma side. Everyone knows Atalanta have the guns to win, and with a heating up Duvan, and an already scalding Ruslan Malinovskyi – Atalanta are in as good a position as possible to earn three points at the Gewiss. Just no dumb errors at the back, and please please please be careful and cover everyone on the counterattack! As always, Forza Dea!!!
