Date: April 17, 2023
Time: 20:45 CET | 14:45 EST
Weather Report: 18 degrees C, partly cloudy
Quick Tale of the Tape
Fiorentina: 9th | 41 points | +2 GD | +6.2 xGD | Top Scorer: Arthur Cabral (6 goals)
Atalanta: 6th | 48 points | +13 GD | +15.3 xGD | Top Scorer: Ademola Lookman (13 goals)
Injury Report
Fiorentina
Salvatore Sirigu (ACL)
Atalanta
Matteo Ruggeri (unknown)
Teun Koopmeiners (hip)
Hans Hateboer (ACL)
Lukas Vorlicky (knee)
Luis Muriel (hand)
Caleb Okoli (flu)
Merih Demiral (flu)
Mario Pasalic (ankle)
Thanks to Nige at Atalanta BC News for the assist with the injuries
If the injury report didn’t suggest the general trend of both of these clubs, well, this preview will instead. Atalanta’s traverse through Serie A doesn’t get any easier this week during Monday night football. The boys head down south to Tuscany to take a Fiorentina squad that has seemingly found its footing after months of muddling around.
Still fighting on three fronts, Vincenzo Italiano’s squad couldn’t be bothered less, stringing off impressive victories in all its competitions. In fact, the last time Fiorentina lost was February 12th! A 13 game unbeaten streak (with 11 victories) is certainly impressive, more so when you consider that 7 of those results come with clean sheets. Recently, Fiorentina just comfortably dispatched Lech Poznan on its way to Conference League glory, and it has done the Milan double – beating both AC and Inter in its impressive streak. And while the short rest may be in Atalanta’s favor, Fiorentina is basically injury free and deep enough to comfortably rotate in a strong squad for Monday night.
Nick’s Preferred Starting Lineup
Atalanta on the other hand… well, the squad was already thin in the center of the pitch, and now it seems Teun Koopmeiners isn’t progressing quick enough to be ready for Monday. With Mario Pasalic potentially out after his nasty ankle twist last week, Atalanta is destined once again to play a thin midfield.
If you listened to the AtalantaPOD this week, you’ll know that both Dan and I are ready to ditch the back three and pack one more player into the midfield. It has been far too easy for teams to transition from defense to offense, often doing so with acres of space in the middle. The problem, Atalanta only has two fit midfielders! Atalanta almost feels destined to play a back three, unless Gian Piero Gasperini does something out of the norm. Both Giorgio Scalvini and Joakim Maehle have gotten minimal minutes in the midfield, and it may be interesting to see a Scalvini/de Roon midfield pairing with Ederson a bit further up the pitch. A more defensive minded midfield setup could help to offset the almost guaranteed heavy Fiorentina possession.
More midfield bodies hopefully lets the attack focus on what it should be doing best – attack. Rasmus Hojlund and Ademola Lookman (especially Hojlund) got bogged down by trying to be the primary outlets for the garden variety Atalanta-hoof.
Surprising to no one, that strategy didn’t work.
This time around, Atalanta may have to create more quality from its chances. There will probably be less possession to work with, meaning the trident can’t mosey around. More space should mean more opportunities to be direct and work off the counter. This style feels like it fits Hojlund and Lookman’s game so much better, and there are a lot of realities in which this becomes a resurgent match for the pair.
But as stated above, Fiorentina’s defense has been stingy as of late, so just because the matchup may be a more favorable for Atalanta’s attack, it doesn’t mean it’ll be easy.
Atalanta Player to Watch – Ederson
As much as Ederson has stepped up recently, it is strange that he seemingly shines the most in Atalanta’s losses. Perhaps it is due to his consistent play that gets overshadowed when the rest of the team plays well, and he still acts as the bright spot when the team is stuck in a hole? Regardless, a lot hinges on the Brazilian to be the bridge between the defense and the attack. There will be chances for him to spur on counterattacks, and he needs to be lightning quick in his movements to make that happen. We still haven’t seen the same assertion that he showed against Hellas Verona in September, and I want to see him take a dribble and a carry to the house – putting Luis Martinez Quarta and Igor on their heels.
My Overall Thoughts
Nothing with Atalanta’s schedule is getting any easier, and this Fiorentina sandwich game between Bologna and Torino has huge implications on how the table may ultimately play out. Fiorentina hasn’t lost in two months, and another loss for Atalanta puts another team within five points of Atalanta’s shaky 6th place position.
Gasperini’s stubbornness has been on full display as of late, and the sheer quantity of injuries may force him to get creative with his lineup. Fortune works in mysterious ways sometimes, and he may have to try something different purely out of his personnel desperation. Additionally, he’s going up against perhaps the only coach in Serie A that has more of a historical reputation to press and retain possession than him. Two of Atalanta’s most convincing displays this year came against opponents looking to press and choke Atalanta deep. Those two victories came against Lazio and, wait for it, Fiorentina. The return fixture against Fiorentina was right at the height of Atalanta murderball, but honestly murderball isn’t the worst strategy in these types of situations.
We’ve seen Atalanta on the receiving end of a brutal counterattack far too many times to count, and everything is setting up for Atalanta to turn the tables and become Mr. Hyde to its current unconvincing Dr. Jekyll. And its not that Atalanta doesn’t have the personnel to hit a team on the break. Lookman and Hojlund thrive at making their opponents look foolish in one on one situations. It honestly may be the only way for La Dea to sneak past Fiorentina’s press.
Style points are nice when hearkening back to the good old days, but if Atalanta wants to make Europe it needs points. Even better to get points against direct rivals. Let’s hope the dice roll Atalanta’s way on Monday night!
Prediction: If Atalanta plays a back four – Atalanta 2 – Fiorentina 1
If Atalanta plays a back three- Fiorentina 2 – Atalanta 1
As always, Forza Dea!
