Date: September 18, 2022
Time: 18:00 CET | 12:00 EST
A Quick Tale of the Tape
Roma: 4th (tie) | 13 points | +2 GD | +7.4x GD
Atalanta: 1st (tie) 14 points | +7 GD | +5.1 xGD
What Do You Do If No One Wants to Play Offense?
One of the wildest statistics of the early year triangulates between Roma, Atalanta, and Monza. Both La Dea and Roma have faced off against newly promoted Monza this year, and interestingly both squads with Champion’s League ambitions also finished their respective matches against the tiny Lombardian side with 40% possession. And of course both Roma and Atalanta won their respective matches.
So what does one do when going up against an opponent that is more than happy to let you have the ball, when that is simultaneously your exact same thought process? Quite the conundrum, but this is what Gian Piero Gasperini will be forced to face this weekend against a beefed up Roma squad. Roma was the talk of the town early in the campaign, but have been plagued by a small recent run of uneven form. Udinese deconstructed Roma 4-0 two weekends ago, and proceedings didn’t go much better for the Giallorossi in Bulgaria, losing to Ludogorets in the first round of the Europa League. Roma was able to bounce back in a yoyoing match against Empoli. On top of that, with Finnish opponent HJK greeting Jose Mourinho’s side in Roma this Thursday, Sunday’s match against our faithful Dea will end a five match streak over two weeks for Roma.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, but it feels like a sneaky good season to miss out on European football. The winter World Cup is putting the heat on squads participating in Europe, with hardly on breaks afforded to these teams to catch their breath. Depth is key for these squads. While Roma has it, a lot of its depth has succumbed to injury. Injuries to Marash Kumbulla, Georginio Wijnaldum, and Stephen El Shaarawy make Roma thinner in each of their ranks. Nonetheless, there’s still enough quality within Mourinho’s side that it will be dangerous regardless of the personnel available and how fatigued they may be.
Roma Player to Watch – Paulo Dybala
Paulo “Dorian Gray” Dybala may look like he’s thirteen, but he’s rapidly acclimated to his new environment in a way that most teenagers never would. With three goals and two assists in the early season, Dybala has carried a lion’s share of the playmaking duties in Zaniolo’s absence. He has yet to miss a beat in his new colors, and has formed an excellent partnership early on with Tammy Abraham. This feels like the perfect Marten de Roon spy game, but the Dutchman will have to be right in Dybala’s face at all times. His one touch ability is still unrivaled in Italy, and he can create a chance almost instantaneously – something that would easily have hurt Atalanta’s old rough and tumble squad.
Atalanta Passione’s Preferred Starting XI
The Cremonese back-three experiment did not go well – preempting me to opt for the back four that was so effective in the second half against Verona and Monza. Personnel wise, I think Atalanta is finding its ideal starting eleven, and its more of a matter of determining where each player fits within the specific scheme.
Right now Merih Demiral, Rafael Toloi, Marten de Roon, and Teun Koopmeiners are locks in their respective positions. Three of these four (sorry Marten) have arguably been Atalanta’s best players so far this year and are shoo-ins to start in any system. Elsewhere on the pitch is where it begins to get tricky. On the wings, Brandon Soppy has emerged as the preferred attacker of the backs, but it has been challenging to find his starting partner. I’d really like to see what Nadir Zortea’s no nonsense style would do against Leonardo Spinazzola, but this really feels like a default Hans Hateboer starts type of match. I hope I’m proved wrong.
Up front it feels like the Ademola Lookman – Ruslan Malinovskyi – Ederson trio is ideal to hit quick on the break. I continually want to see Malinovskyi employed in the middle of the pitch, and he could have a lot of space if both Lookman and Ederson are busy occupying Gianluca Mancini and Roger Ibanez on the flanks. Of course Rasmus Hojlund continues to look the part in the middle of the pitch, and is a more suitable center forward for a team that is content not passing and dribbling all day (lo siento Lucho). Hojlund will have another big test against Chris Smalling. And while Smalling is a physical specimen, let’s look for Hojlund to use his speed to try and beat the Englishman off the back shoulder.
Biggest Key to Victory
Get an early lead- Udinese was able to convert early against Roma, and that was Mourinho’s unraveling. It put him and his team on the front foot, and Udinese’s sound defense was able to turn its success into offense and take advantage of a Roma side more comfortable hitting on the counter.
Interestingly, both Gasperini and Mourinho wanting to sit back may counter-intuitively spur on more offense early. If the desire is for both teams to gain an early lead, and then try to see the game out, there may be a flurry of early offense to try to swing the odds in their favor. Roma saw what happened when it went down to Udinese early, but if it happens to Atalanta – do we really know what we’ll see? Dea still hasn’t been behind this year, and honestly doing it against Roma at the Olimpico wouldn’t be the best place to think up a new strategy on the fly.
So let’s cut through all the hypotheticals and just score early!
Number of the week: 1 – The number of Atalanta goals scored with a right foot this year. Interestingly, the scorer of this right-footed goal was a southpaw, Rasmus Hojlund. Without Duvan Zapata and Luis Muriel available to bang in goals, the team has had to rely on the left foots of Koopmeiners, and Malinovskyi, as well as the extremities of Rafael Toloi and Merih Demiral.
Napoli and Milan face off against each other this weekend; it is the perfect opportunity for Atalanta to gain some distance on a direct rival. One of them is guaranteed to lose points, and three points against Roma helps to create a four point gap in the standings between the two opponents. Atalanta got dismantled by Roma last year purely by playing into Mourinho’s plans.
This new look Atalanta suggests that the gameplay will be different. Its unlikely Atalanta gets hit on the counter, but are they able to create enough offense against a good Roma defense? If the pieces are used in the right situations, no doubt. Its hard to get over the clumsiness in attack that was Sunday against Cremonese, but the boys still have a weird penchant for showing up when we being to second guess them. Let’s hope the squad has done enough homework midweek and come out firing against a Roma side that probably cannot wait for the international break to finally come. Until then, Forza Dea!
